Jump to content

potatohead

Members
  • Posts

    6,022
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

Everything posted by potatohead

  1. The new Bear's pickup line when meeting others at a french cafe... Just need to say it in french with an authentic accent. the chat mort rebond market
  2. sounds like the market is feeling a little dirty or sinful at the moment
  3. Market is feeling a little guilty today.......sorry just had to say it...
  4. Some have waited longer. I am sure there were social message groups (via taverns) 200 years ago thinking the British pound was going to devalue. GBP to USD to move from 5 to 1 - Historical run of the GBP Early 1800s: 5 Napoleonic Wars: 3.62 US Civil War: 10 WW1: 3.66 WW2: 3.25 1949 devaluation: 2.8 BoP crisis: 2.4 Vietnam War: 2.65 Oil crisis: 1.58 Plaza Accord: 1.05 ERM: 2 GFC: 1.35 Brexit: 1.2 Today: 1.03
  5. seems 2500 on the [email protected] 500 will bring in a banking crisis. Too much collateral devaluation for the banking system at that point. new name for the S&P 500 at that point will be Shit & Piss blood 500
  6. "Speaking of that bottom I'm waiting on...13, 9, or 4(sometimes 4.50). " What were you referring to? Appreciate the comments.
  7. Glad to hear your procedure went well. Great call on the markets. Been following closely. I am in the metals business and what we are seeing are premiums on products across the board are rising on the bid and offer side. Although the paper price is going down, rising premiums are offsetting some of the pain. Number of large wholesalers are running out of inventory.
  8. Do you live in a city more focused on tourism? seems like everything I read, many parts of europe are seeing high inflation and rising discontent.
  9. Lee, How are Europeans taking the slide in their currency? What is economic activity like where you are?
  10. The positioning in Silver futures with managed money via COT is big time short. Could easily see a squeeze. In addition the Swap traders are now long futures. Another signal to go long.
  11. Lee,any thoughts? could all this hedging force weak shorts out and rally the market. .You have always said the shorts are their own worst enemy.
  12. looks like the bear market could be at the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning
  13. That wave of Treasury supply is finally making its mark.
  14. I think the market just masturbated on the 1 minute chart
  15. FED'S BARKIN: THE AMOUNT OF MONEY IN OVERNIGHT RRP MEANS THE FED IS "NOWHERE NEAR THE EDGE" OF A BALANCE SHEET LOW POINT. Do these people know what they are doing? They created this program and now they are complaining about it.
  16. What a great category for Jeopardy..... "leveraged flavors of dollar-denominated aggregate liquidity"
  17. You make a great point(s). The RRP was originally designed to put a floor in rates so short term Treasury collateral did not go negative in yield and screw up the collateralization of Treasuries. Who would want negative yielding collateral. Agree, now the Fed can use this tool for players to park cash and provide liquidity on demand. There is no risk with loaning the Fed money and you get a great risk free return. However, that has implications. Some of these funds/banks/dealers can use part of their portfolios to gain more risk because of the great risk free return and liquidity they are getting from the Fed. This can feed the animal spirits short term by marking up inventory and selling it to the next guy at a higher price. I agree with Lee, this is setting up a real confidence failure in the Fed for when this shit finally unravels nobody will have any faith in these PhDs or liquidity left (whatever that is defined as in the future, Cash, CBDCs, or CBDs).
  18. I think it is safe to say that if the Fed still wants higher interest rates, the RRP program may have in theory been their way to remove buying power of traded securities so those securities would trade at lower prices higher yields and new funds could go into an alternative savings account where a new form of QE has been created. Thus liquidity is being created on one hand by creating /paying interest while Fed is trying to reduce the balance sheet and say we are hawkish. No wonder the market is talking Pivot everyday.
  19. Lee, Thought you would like this tweet. What a line up. Howard Cosell introduces the 1980 Phillies. If you’re old enough to remember either Howard Cosell or the 1980 Phillies, I really don’t think I need to say more. https://twitter.com/Super70sSports/status/1557049602498596865
  20. All I heard over the weekend is buy bonds, especially Zero coupon. Doesn't anyone realize between the inflation reduction act and massive debt coming to market this should create more supply not less?
  21. Originated in World War II. When something was "good enough for Government work" it meant it could pass the most rigorous of standards. Over the years it took on an ironic meaning that is now the primary sense, referring to poorly executed work. From Wiktionary
  22. Lee what is your take on the rising failures to deliver in the Treasury repo market the last week? Sign of tight liquidity conditions?
×
  • Create New...