saw the following comments. sums up sentiment pretty well.
If you have been following the price of Platinum in the last three weeks, you would have noticed that it traded from a high of $912 in mid-June, to a low of around $800 an ounce this week in the NYMEX most active futures contract. That’s a significant drop in just 20 days (particularly since it hit a 14-year low this past Tuesday)
Virtually a sinking ship, as all the news stories have had negative implications.
Proposed trade tariffs by the Trump administration, potentially hurting the automobile industry in a big way. Some predicting that these tariffs, could add $ 6,000 to the price of the average new car now selling at $32,000.
Also hurting the price of Platinum is the reduced amount of worldwide production
in catalytic converters as consumers are more and more changing gears to new
alternative vehicles. Diesel car registrations have declined by almost 18 percent
in the first quarter this year, adding fuel to the fire are stories like this one in Hamburg Germany. Hamburg is the first city to ban some older diesel cars
to improve air quality, setting a template for other urban cities to join in.
Earlier in the year the Chinese government suspended the production of more than 500 car models that did not meet its fuel economy standards. The latest move by Beijing to reduce emissions in the world’s largest auto market and take the lead in battling climate change.
The Chinese government has already become the world’s biggest supporter of electric cars, offering automakers numerous incentives for producing so-called new energy vehicles. Those incentives are set to decrease by 2020, to be replaced by quotas for the number of clean cars automakers must sell. That has sparked global automakers to pick up the pace in their shift towards battery powered cars.
What I found interesting during this period was the action in the futures market. If you followed the trading action, the bids were few in comparison to the outstanding offers. It seems as it became apparent that very few if any investors and traders were willing to put a bid in the market, so the shorts had their way with all the action. It wasn’t till this past Tuesday when some bids emerged and stopped the bleeding.
Every market in a downward spiral eventually finds support. But the question remains how much of an impact, will these tariffs have on the price of Platinum from here on out? Since the world is turning away from Diesel vehicles and the prospects of tariffs on automobiles coming into our country seems to be gaining momentum each day, one can expect pressure on the price to continue.
Technical levels at this juncture are indicating Platinum is a buy (sentiment) and below the cost of production. However, cost of production means very little when it comes to precious metals. Unfortunately the news seems to be controlling the market for the time being and funds are big time short. The contrarian play would be to buy, but no one likes trying to catch a knife at the same time.
Will try to post levels next week.