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DrStool

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  1. The pattern on the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures, speaks for itself. To translate, it's a top, and it has broken down. But there are a couple of problems from the bearish perspective. First, the 5 day cycle projection is only 3915-30, and they already reached the top of that range. Second, there are multiple sport levels and trendlines in the 3910-3920 area. If they hold, this decline would be but a false start. In addition, the hourly oscillators are barely in negative territory, and a 5 day cycle low is due right now. An upturn from these levels could catch fire. Here's a longer term perspective using 5 hour bars. Note that the original base breakout at 3800 has a conventional measured move target of 4100. You can see how formidable and important the 3910-3930 sport area is. If this holds, I'd be inclined to want to be more long than short in my trading port. In my private daily swing trade trading screens that I use for setting up my own trades, the screens from yesterday's closing prices spit out 28 final sells, and 10 final buys. I do a weekly posting every Monday morning for Technical Trader subscribers. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/2022/11/14/swing-trade-screen-picks-few-good-longs-no-good-shorts/ Click the links below for moron the markets. Golden Surprise November 15, 2022 The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed November 14, 2022 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Few Good Longs, No Good Shorts November 14, 2022 Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts November 12, 2022 Bad News for the Markets – Not Just Withholding Boomed in October November 3, 2022 Surge in Withholding Tax Collections in October Indicates Faster Jobs Growth November 2, 2022 Bear Market Isn’t the Mirror of a Bull October 31, 2022 We Can Now Project When Fed Will Pause, But Not Reverse October 13, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
  2. I think the overall counterparty list exists somewhere on the NY Fed website. But the Fed promised many moons ago to tell who's depositing the cash at each auction.
  3. The intraday pattern on the ES, 24 hour S&P futures remains bullish here approaching 7:45 AM ET. We are still firmly in the green zone with all channels still pointing upward, and none currently under threat. There's nary a red (downward) channel to be found. For that to happen, the ES would need an hourly close below 3970. By the same token, there are no unmet upside projections, so I'll assume an endless range until there's a breakout, one way or the other. For now, the range is defined as 3953 to 4043. Meanwhile, Jorma noted yesterday the beginnings of a drawdown in the Fed's RRP slush fund for money market funds, banks, dealers, and derivatively speaking, their assorted miscreant customers and counterparties. That drawdown looks small, but it amounts to $137 billion over the past week. Pretty soon we'll be talking real money. Where does most of it go? Well, this week, the US Treasury will issue a net of $77 billion in new T-bills. That's up from $40 billion in each of the two prior weeks. So that absorbs some of the cash. But not all of it. It would appear that some may be going elsewhere, which means that non-MMF holders may be in the mood for moving cash back into risk assets, such as stocks and bonds. It's helps to explain the rallies in both. I'll have an in depth look at the implications of this in a new Liquidity Trader report coming up in a few days. Meanwhile, the latest: Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS NOVEMBER 12, 2022 Obviously, no market moves in a straight line, and this one is no exception. The technical analysis says the rally in Treasuries will have legs, albeit likely to be short. Then the underlying forces of supply and demand, with constantly more Treasury supply and limited or even diminishing demand, with a severely weakened Primary Dealer system at its core, will rear its ugly head once again. Subscribers, click here to download the report. Non subscribers, click here to read this report. Despite the seeming moderation of headline inflation data, the conditions cited previously in these comments remain in effect. The speculation that the Fed might ease policy on the basis of this week’s inflation news is useless. Markets move on the fact of Fed policy change, not on the basis of Wall Street promoting such changes. Non subscribers, click here to read this report. For perspective, here’s a look back at key points of the summaries of these Primary Dealer position updates that I’ve posted this year. We start with the most recent… and follow with a look at their current positioning, and the reasons why they present unprecedented risk for investors. Non subscribers, click here to read this report. KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! Click the links below for moron the markets. Golden Surprise November 15, 2022 The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed November 14, 2022 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Few Good Longs, No Good Shorts November 14, 2022 Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts November 12, 2022 Bad News for the Markets – Not Just Withholding Boomed in October November 3, 2022 Surge in Withholding Tax Collections in October Indicates Faster Jobs Growth November 2, 2022 Bear Market Isn’t the Mirror of a Bull October 31, 2022 We Can Now Project When Fed Will Pause, But Not Reverse October 13, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
  4. Do have a nice night, and a good day tomorrow. Good night all.
  5. Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts
  6. Why would Russia fire missiles at extreme western Ukraine near the Polish border. The war is on the other side of the country. This is a sparsely populated area on both sides of the border. It is 70 km from Lviv.
  7. Keep us posted. I am concerned about the Polish right wing government using any excuse to further erode civil liberties.
  8. Make no mistake. This is a deliberate provocation.
  9. This makes me very nervous. I have many friends in Poland. They've been fatalistic. They hate Putin. They hate the Russians. This won't end well for any of us.
  10. Morawiecki calls emergency meeting of Polish Security
  11. Monthly annualized inflation rate and Fed balance sheet growth rate Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts
  12. Fed balance sheet vs. government inflation measures and interest rates. Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts
  13. My personal trading screens turned up way more shorts than longs today. First time in a while.
  14. Yesterday's late selloff didn't happen. Also, I noted at the close. And now we're looking at an approach to massive resistance around 4010-15, with a negative divergence setup on the hourly indicators. A breakout through 4016 would probably target 4050-60 today. If they hold the line here, to accomplish anything on the downside, they'd need to break 3957. Click the links below for moron the markets. The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed November 14, 2022 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Few Good Longs, No Good Shorts November 14, 2022 The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed November 14, 2022 Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts November 12, 2022 Bad News for the Markets – Not Just Withholding Boomed in October November 3, 2022 Surge in Withholding Tax Collections in October Indicates Faster Jobs Growth November 2, 2022 Bear Market Isn’t the Mirror of a Bull October 31, 2022 We Can Now Project When Fed Will Pause, But Not Reverse October 13, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
  15. What do the percentages mean? GEO popped up in my screens a few weeks ago and I added it to my picks.
  16. The fact that they couldn't even make it to 4015 may be significant. Or it may not. Or it may. It could mean something. Or it might not. We'll just have to see. Then we'll see. But nobody could have seen it. Because nobody knows nothing. On that note, bonne nuit et bonne chance. Laissez les bon temps rouller.
  17. I just observe and report the facts. Why this is happening is above my pay grade. Besides, nobody knows especially the fin media. Their job is to get us to buy subscriptions to them wasting our time. We merely need to be chartists. Identify the trend, consider the implications, decide how to play it, and ride it until it gives clear signs of reversal. I note that this article is from a publication that no one outside the Beltway has heard of. And yet it's about a topic that is one of the 3 pillars of understanding liquidity, which is the most important thing you can do if you want to get the market right. The mainstream fin media, the Wall Street captured hand job maidens, never, ever report on the subject. They report the monthly deficit as a news item of little interest to anyone. It's trivial esoterica to them.
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