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DrStool

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  2. Stock Market Looked at the Sun Without Squinting 4/9/24

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    And now it is flying blind, without much clue as to today's direction. The ES, 24 hour S&P futures are in a tight triangle with an apex right at 5200 later today.  One way or another, it will break out of the triangle today. We can say for certain that it will be in one of three directions. Up, down, or sideways. 

    Just as I write this, approaching 5:30 AM ET they're working on an upside breakout. An hourly close above 5211 should get the ball rolling uphill. A failure here would suggest they'll get crushed to the bottom of the pattern. All the way to 5198. Oh the humanity. And if that were to break the next spport target would be around 5188. Now, if that broke, we could see some excitement. 

    There are a few layers of resistance on the upside also that would probably prevent a runaway move. Those would be around 5227, 5233, and 5240-45. The big one is 5260. 

     

    14bh75

    I apologize for the late posting! The report was written over the weekend but inadvertently not uploaded. Performance slipped yesterday but no stops were hit. The performance table is updated with Monday’s closing prices. Charts are as of Friday, April 5.  Non-subscribers click here for access. 

    Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

    The list had an ok week last week, despite the market’s wild fluctuations. The average gain last week was 17.3% on an average holding period of 27 calendar days. That includes picks still open at the end of the week, plus those closed out during the week. That performance compares favorably with the previous week’s 16.7% on an average holding period of 31 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

    4 picks were stopped out last week with an average gain of 15.4% and an average holding period of 23 calendar days. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

    Past performance does not suggest future results. But at least this suggests that since I have made the change to a fully automated selection process over the past 3 weeks, so far, so good. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

    There are now 3 layers of screens. The first is the raw output of various buy and sell filters. The second filters those for intermediate trend. The third is a filter of short-term signal triggers. This is new as of March 2024. The new method reduces the final output to a manageable number for final visual review as a check, to remove those that I’m not comfortable with for final selection. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

    The latest screens found 321 total unfiltered buys and 522 total unfiltered sells last week. That compares with the previous week’s 117 buys and 238 total sells. So it still appears to be a two way market, with an edge to the sell side. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

    Friday alone saw 4 buys and 3 sells after the final trigger filters were applied. Not much to choose from. The trends on both sides are mature. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

    Due to the scarcity of picks on Friday, I reviewed charts from the rest of the week as well as Friday’s picks. Nothing was still interesting. Some had already moved and the rest didn’t have setups that I liked. So I am adding only one pick to the list this week. It’s a short, shown on the table below. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

    Going forward, I will review the performance of the charts I rule out on visual review to see if this is a worthwhile step, or whether simply going with the raw output yields better results. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

    I want the output to be simple to follow and to require only a few minutes to review and implement each week. On that score, I post a table with specific signal indications along with the charts of the new buy and sell short picks so that you can evaluate them and do with them as you might. Non-subscribers click here for access. 

    We came into last week with 10 open picks, including 3 shorts and 7 longs. 4 longs hit their stops during the week, leaving 3 short and 3 longs at the end of the week. I am adding just one short and no buys this week, to start the week with 3 longs and 4 shorts.  Non-subscribers click here for access. 

    I have adjusted stops for most existing picks. I have removed a stock from one pick and will let it ride this week. New picks will be added without stops. Risk management is assumed via multiple small positions that won’t break the bank if they go wrong. Non-subscribers click here for access.

    Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.

    Screenshot-2024-04-09-111930.png?resize=

    Non-subscribers click here for access.

    Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

    For moron the markets, see:   

    If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. 

  6. The Rebound 4/8/24

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    Headline Corrected

    The market pulled back to the bottom of projected cycle channels last week. A decline would signal that those channels are beginning to turn lower, although not necessarily down in absolute terms. There would be a basis for xxxxxx xxxxxx on swing trades.   Non subscribers click here to access.

    Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

    On the other hand, if the market firms up from here, then there would be room to run to xxxx or higher over the next xx-xx weeks. That would be a setup for picking up long positions for a trade.   Non subscribers click here to access.

     

    Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

  7. The Rebound 4/8/24

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    What else should we expect?

    14b0ps

     

    For moron the markets, see:   

    If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. 

  21. Piece de Resistance 4/5/24

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    All eyes on the 5163-5170 band of resistance  5163-5170 on the ES, 24 hour S&P futures hourly chart. If cleared it could be the start of a genuine half day rebound. But they'd face still more resistance at 5178-5187 in the NY opening hour. Clearing that could set up a furious rally.

    But if they fail to clear any of these levels, the decline will resume. The lower the failure, the more vicious the drop would probably be. 

    Projections say only 5135 on a 2-3 day cycle or 5 day cycle basis. A 4 day basis points just a bit lower, to around 5125. There are also spport lines around those levels. The problems would start if they don't hold. Then we'd have a possible crash setup. Low odds on that. I don't see it, but I'll hold for it for now. Swing Trade Screen Picks – Extended Uptrend Yields Just One New Pick

    14a20k

    For moron the markets, see:   

    If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. 

     

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