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DrStool

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Everything posted by DrStool

  1. The ES, S&P 24 hour futures have been consolidating toward trend overnight and this morning. with the pre market just open in New York at 8:00 AM. The trendlines are currently clustered around 4105-4120. They move up to 4120-4140 at the end of regular trading hours today. The bears' task is to take that out. Failing that, the bulls would remain in charge. If they do manage to break trend support, they'd still need to break 4080 to create a reversal pattern.
  2. I'll start today by featuring my swing trade screen picks. Last week could have been a blockbuster, but I had shorts along with the longs, and that killed that. Surprisingly, current screens then resulted in more shorts than longs. Here's the post. Swing Trade Screens – We Had Longs, Yay! But… I'll be back momentarily with the usual daily intraday chart update. To understand and profit from the big picture check out the following. Swing Trade Screens – We Had Longs, Yay! But… August 1, 2022 To Blow Off, or Not to Blow Off – That Is the Question August 1, 2022 Gold Has Made a Bottom July 28, 2022 The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 Recession? What Recession? July 5, 2022 Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
  3. 5 day cycle projection rises to 4135. Relentless, unstoppable bull market.
  4. The 10 year yield is breaking down. Look at that top pattern. Hard to believe, Harry.
  5. This would be a catastrophic loss in the Philly Fed index.
  6. This came in the Syphma daily newslater. Do you think maybe they're too smug with this "priced in" shit? July 29, 2022 ⋅ News on the capital markets Morning Bell With recession priced in, markets shrug off GDP decline Equity investors appear to have priced in a recession, with many seeking bargains amid an economic contraction. Stock futures are up in the wake of news of a second consecutive quarterly GDP decline, with the S&P 500 on track for the best month since 2020. Full Story: Bloomberg (7/28), The Wall Street Journal (7/29)
  7. I have embellished the above post here: https://wallstreetexaminer.com/2022/07/why-isnt-everyone-rushing-into-money-market-funds/
  8. Sandy Beach mentioned money market funds. Some interesting data here. Not as much growth as you'd think. Retail funds only up $85 billion since December per FRED data, and the OFR shows a persistent decline in government MMFs over the same time frame. This includes institutional MMFs, which are twice the size of retail funds. ICI has granular weekly and monthly data. It shows Retail funds up only $40 billion since March, when short term rates began to rise sharply. All of the gain was in non government MMFs. Government MMFs declined. Another OFR data set shows how the Treasury's T-bill paydowns forced the MMFs out of their T-bill holdings. That money went straight into the Fed's RRP fund for MMFs. MMFs are really a sideshow to the main event, the Primary Dealers. That's what I focus on in my research. They're the house. They run the markets, normally on behalf of the Fed. But the narcissists at the Fed no longer have any use for their strawmen dealers. So the Fed has abandoned them to the whims of their institutional customers. The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers
  9. Stocks are on a roll. The 5 day cycle projection on the ES, S&P 500 24 hour futures has risen to 4115. This morning's high of 4108 is close enough for government work, especially in view of the fact that the conventional measured move target of the base breakout was 4100. The breakout from the higher base this week only pointed to 4085. So the bear killers' work is done here. The shorts have been squeezed to a pulp. If they do manage to pop this boil at 4109, then multiple resistance trendlines at 4120-25 should be the endpoint. I suspect that will now leave a vacuum of demand, as bulls alone will lack the firepower to keep this going without the shorts. I cover the reasons for that here. Look, it's not bedtime reading. Unless you like having nightmares. To understand and profit from the big picture check out the following. Gold Has Made a Bottom July 28, 2022 The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Surprise, Surprise – A Few Shorts July 25, 2022 Gonna Take You Higher, But Not Too Much July 25, 2022 Catch a Falling Knife July 19, 2022 Survive the Meat Grinder and Market Will Gladly Pay Us Back on Tuesday July 18, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 Recession? What Recession? July 5, 2022 Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
  10. While a new immigrant to the Old World, I admit, there's much about Your Up that I don't understand.
  11. The stampede ends tomorrow. The slaughter of the bulls begins Monday.
  12. Conventional measured move target 4100. 2 hour bars.
  13. Market Can't Top Out Until FxFox Stops Posting -Bloomberg Recession is Bullish - Adler You'd better hope the recession is not around the corner because it will give the Fed loose bowels and it will start shitting money all over the Street.
  14. The pattern on the hourly chart of the ES, S&P 24 hour futures actually remains bullish. On the other hand, the 5 day cycle projection was 4035 and that was exceeded. So we'll see if that headline holds up. I'll be back after posting the Gold Trader update. To understand and profit from the big picture check out the following. The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Surprise, Surprise – A Few Shorts July 25, 2022 Gonna Take You Higher, But Not Too Much July 25, 2022 Catch a Falling Knife July 19, 2022 Survive the Meat Grinder and Market Will Gladly Pay Us Back on Tuesday July 18, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 Recession? What Recession? July 5, 2022 Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
  15. All the cover short stop orders just got hit. Wouldn't surprise me to see this reversed overnight.
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