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DrStool

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  1. Well, don't say I didn't warn. Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over And we have a rather pointed reaction, as shown in the hourly ES, S&P 500 continuous 24 hour fuguetures. They've broken the latest iteration of the green on green on green channels, but beware. They merely need to get back to 4137 to inertiate that. Like that word? It's new. I couldn't think of the word I wanted, and that's what came out. And if it doesn't reverse, then the next target will be that all important sport level of 4078. Break that, and Houston, we have a problem. Meanwhile, the 10 year Treasury yield is strangely quiet. I don't think it will be for much longer. To understand and profit from the big picture check out the following. Upon Further Review Gold Bottom Call Stands August 5, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over August 2, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – We Had Longs, Yay! But… August 1, 2022 To Blow Off, or Not to Blow Off – That Is the Question August 1, 2022 Gold Has Made a Bottom July 28, 2022 The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
  2. the Good News is that gold shorts are getting slaughtered today. Next up. Bond shorts.
  3. I haven't seen so much green on a chart of the ES 24 hour continues S&P futures since I was in Ireland on St. Patty's Day. Oh. Wait. I've never been there, done that. Meanwhile, both the 2-3 day and 5 day cycle projections have moderated to 4165-74. I thought it would be interesting to split the difference between the usual one hour bar look, and 30 minute bars. This is a look at 45 minute bars. On this basis it sure does look like this goose is ready to come out of the oven. It may go a little higher, but as long as it stays at no more than 4177, the bears have a shot. We'd need to see around 4145 for a decent sell confirmation. Meanwhile, are we about to get some good news on gold. A little more upside here would break the downtrend, and perhaps confirm my bottom call. To understand and profit from the big picture check out the following. Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over August 2, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – We Had Longs, Yay! But… August 1, 2022 To Blow Off, or Not to Blow Off – That Is the Question August 1, 2022 Gold Has Made a Bottom July 28, 2022 The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
  4. A lot going on here. I see a 2-3 day cycle projection of 4190-4200.
  5. I can't draw on my phone but this looks like the top of the channel right here. there should be some resistance. You have a shot at a reversal here maybe not a great one but a shot is better than no shot. 😊
  6. trying to look at this on my cell phone the 5-day cycle projection looks like 4195 or so.. about the same measuring objective as the high base breakout.
  7. I'm not well versed in that. I have to think about the mechanics involved. at first blush it sounds like somebody is borrowing against collateral they don't have.
  8. Do I know which way this will break today? Hell no. Look at the trend of the past 3 days in the ES S&P 24 hour fugutures. Look at the hourly oscillators. All perfectly neutral. We'll just have to wait and see if they break 4078 or 4144. A rollover in the lower half of the range could give the bears the edge. Meanwhile, the 10 year yield the past two days has begun to expose the lies that the US economy is on the verge of recession, that inflation is at its peak, and that the Fed is near the end of its tightening. Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 To understand and profit from the big picture check out the following. Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over August 2, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – We Had Longs, Yay! But… August 1, 2022 To Blow Off, or Not to Blow Off – That Is the Question August 1, 2022 Gold Has Made a Bottom July 28, 2022 The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
  9. Who warned you? Who's your daddy? 😄😄😄😆
  10. Published yesterday at the absolute low in yield. Fuckers.
  11. Hmmm. Triple top. They don't happen too often.
  12. Short it. BofA: 10-Year Treasury yield could fall to 2% in months If the US economy slows significantly, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond could drop to 2% within six to 12 months, Bank of America strategist Bruno Braizinha said in a note to clients. "A further rally from here is possible and even likely, but how much further depends on a series of fundamentals and more technical drivers," Braizinha said. The 10-year yield hit 2.58% on Monday. Full Story: BNN Bloomberg (Canada) (8/1)
  13. they just invalidated the potential top pattern.
  14. Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over
  15. There's some bleeding going on this morning. As I pointed out yesterday, they need to break 4078 to complete a nice tight little top pattern on the hourly chart of the ES, S&P 24 hour fuguetures. Still true this morning. But the 5 day cycle projection is only 4078-80 so far. So we wait, in suspense. I'm working on a Liquidity Trader update of the Federal tax collections for July. Just how strong was the jobs picture in July. We already know the facts, and I will report that to you a bit later this morning. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/monetary/ Meanwhile, I'll be back! To understand and profit from the big picture check out the following. Swing Trade Screens – We Had Longs, Yay! But… August 1, 2022 To Blow Off, or Not to Blow Off – That Is the Question August 1, 2022 Gold Has Made a Bottom July 28, 2022 The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 Recession? What Recession? July 5, 2022 Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
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