This thing is going vertical even on a log scale chart.
Won't end well. When they go vertical, they never end well.
That said, even the short term cycle projection is 73,500. 9 month cycle projection 75,000. Seems like a done deal.
The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices March 4, 2024
The January jobs number was revised down big. Sooprize Sooprize.
Whatever the BLS is doing every month bears no semblance to reality.
I've given up trying to reconcile their bullshit with the withholding tax data. It's an exercise in futility.
Next month they'll have to revise up.
I reported this a week ago but no longer made any attempt to relate it to the jobs report for Feb.
Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February
Swing Trade Screen Picks – What to Do With Profitable Week Behind
LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER MARCH 8, 2024
Swing trade screens generated 32 charts which met all buy side criteria for visual review, and 28 which met all sell criteria for the week ended Thursday. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.
List performance improved from the week before. The average gain was 13.1% on an average holding period of 21 calendar days. This includes picks closed out over the course of the week and those still open. It compared with an average gain of 7.4% on an average holding period of 25 calendar days, the previous week. Non-subscribers click here for access.
The list’s current performance has reached a level where it has maxed out in the past, suggesting some drawdown ahead. But there’s only one outright sell signal. I’m adding a tight stop to that chart. See table below for all particulars. Non-subscribers click here for access.
This morning, I reviewed all of the charts produced by the screens. Here’s what I came up with for the week ahead. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!
The ES 24 hour S&P futures projects to a 5 day cycle high of 5185, ideally due this afternoon. But a look at the hourly chart suggests that if they get that far, they're going much, much higher. The conventional measured move target of yet another high base breakout, this time through 5170, would be 5285.
I don't think they'd get there today, but what do I know. How Stocks Can Forestall the Inevitable
If by some miracle, they don't clear 5170, don't even think about a reversal pattern unless they break down from 5150 for starters. Even a drop to 5130 wouldn't do major damage. It would just be a pullback before the next rally.
For moron the markets, see:
Gold Sets Up for Major Breakout March 6, 2024
The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices March 4, 2024
How Stocks Can Forestall the Inevitable March 4, 2024
Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February March 3, 2024
Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My List, No New Shorts March 1, 2024
We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Fed – We Make Money from Nothing February 26, 2024
Gold Holds for Hold February 24, 2024
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
What else is new? The pattern on the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P futures is bullish again. It's on its way to test the minor high of 5130. If they consolidate there, as I expect they will, the 5 day cycle projection would work out to around 5155, which would slightly exceed last week's high.
Meanwhile, any action, whether up or down, within the current range of 5082-5128 won't mean much until they break it, one way or the other. The current look shows that an upside break is more likely, but if it's to the downside, then I'd look to retest 5050, by no means a tossup. The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices
For moron the markets, see:
Gold Sets Up for Major Breakout March 6, 2024
The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices March 4, 2024
How Stocks Can Forestall the Inevitable March 4, 2024
Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February March 3, 2024
Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My List, No New Shorts March 1, 2024
We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Fed – We Make Money from Nothing February 26, 2024
Gold Holds for Hold February 24, 2024
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
While we're on the subject.
Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February
LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS MARCH 3, 2024
Withholding tax collections soared in February to their highest level in 13 months. If this is not just a flash in the pan or data anomaly, it could mean smaller than forecast deficits ahead. Smaller deficits translate to less than expected Treasury supply. But less than expected isn’t less in real terms. Supply will still be huge, and still a problem for the market to digest over the longer term. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Subscribers, click here to download the report.
But in the short run, the strongest revenue collection period of the year starts now. Corporate income taxes for last year are due on March 15, and both annual individual and quarterly individual and corporate income taxes are due April 15. Which is why, every year from mid March to late May, the annual revenue windfall leads to paydowns of Treasury bills. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Those paydowns put cash back into the pockets of the holders of the paid down T-bills. That cash figruratively burns holes in the pockets of those entities, mostly professional investors, who then use that cash to buy longer term fixed income paper and yes, stocks. That’s why we normally see a seasonal rally in the stock or bond market, or both, in the spring. The timing varies, but significant strength in April and May is the rule. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
When the paydowns end and the government starts borrowing heavily again, the markets often sell off. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
So should we expect anything different this year? Here’s the answer, and an explanation of why that is, and how to take advantage of it. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Liquidity analysis gives us the context, or the map of the general direction where we can expect the markets to head over the next few months. That helps us to better understand the message of the technical charts. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Meanwhile, the Fed’s RRP facility, which has been the source of much of the money contributing to the stock and bond market rallies, continues to be drained. However, the rate of withdrawals has slowed dramatically. As a result, the money in that pot looks likely to last longer than I originally expected, especially if T-bill paydowns increase on the strength of greater than expected revenues. This report also shows you exactly what that means for the markets. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
