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DrStool

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  9. The Bottom Will See You Now 4/17/24

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    Yesterday, no one correctly identified our mystery guest, so we will have new contestants attempt it today, on What's My Line, with John Daly, Dorothy Kilgallen (corrected, not kilogallon), Bennet Cerf, Arlene Francis, and Steve Allen. 

    image.png

    New gold update coming later this morning but first, Back to the Gold Old Days 4/9/24.

    Also posted a warning yesterday, Incoming! Little bears, get under your desks and cover your heads with your arms. 

    image.png

    Warning Signs Abound, But Ignore Them for Now

    As for the here and now, the bottom is in, he will see you now. By the way, in France when it's time to see the doctor, he just pops out and comes for you. And they are always on time. Like the trains. 

    OK, not the trains all the time. 

    The ES, 24 hour S&P futures suggest at least a 5 day cycle low, but the up phase hasn't gotten off the ground and we don't know if it will. Looks like a nice base for a rally, but they might decide to just chop and slop and then break down. Key level is 5080 on the top of the range to get something going all the way to the next resistance level of 5093 woopdedoo. Next one above that would be 5110. 

    Looking down, there's a spport line at 5033. Break that and they could plunge all the way to 5028 where there's some old spport. And then all the way to 5000 where lower channel descending spport comes in around 2:30 turn time.  No More Downside

    The hourly cycle oscillators are bullish but only approaching zero from below. A little push up today would get those into positive territory which would suggest acceleration. On the other hand, stall and rollover from this level, and shorting might be in order. 

    14fafa

     For moron the markets, see:   

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  10. Let the Bottom Begin 4/16/24

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    9 hours ago, Jorma said:

    "What's My Line, with John Daly, Bennet Cerf, Arlene Francis, Steve Allen and Kitty Kilgallen "

    That was Kitty Carlisle but she was on To Tell the Truth.  It was Dorothy Kilgallen who was on What's My Line.

    Tomorrow we can cover Gisele MacKenzie and Anna Maria Alberghetti.  Unless you want to delve into Kilgallen's odd link in Kennedy assassination theories.

    My memory failed me.  

  16. Let the Bottom Begin 4/16/24

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    Another dawn. But is it another false dawn, this market rally morning? 

    The ES 24 hour S&P futures have rebounded from the bottom of a downtrend channel. It didn't get as low as very short term cycle projections suggested that it would. Hourly cycle oscillators have shifted to the buy side. And the timing isn't bad in terms of normal very short term daily cycles. Those cycles haven't been normal lately, so anything goes, but this one lines up in most ways. 

    The first test of stickability will be a signal trigger line pair at 5080-90 in the NY pre-opening hour, and 5075-85 in the opening half hour. That projects down to 5065-75 at noon. If they can clear that, they should be on their way higher. The first target would be 5110.

    If they can't clear it, the bottom would probably drop out. 

    14ettz

    That’s because they’re early, and an intervening temporary force should drive xxxx xxxx xxxxx.

    Non-subscribers, click here for access.

    Subscribers, click here to download the report.

    The warning signs from the Fed’s weekly real time balance sheet data and slightly lagged data on the condition of the US banking system continued last week. The market has acted badly, but this isn’t likely “IT” yet. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx began in early April, and they will continue to xxxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxxxx  the markets for the next 4 weeks or so. Most of that xxxxx will be coming over the next two weeks. As a result, any additional market decline from here is likely to be xxxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

    Timing that will be tricky and a matter for technical analysis. My technical work has suggested that ideally a 6-month cycle low is due xxxxxx xxxx xxxxxx. A couple of weeks on either side of that would be normal, so we need to be alert, as illustrated in Monday’s Technical Trader report. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

    We can expect a bigger selloff once the Treasury starts borrowing again, on balance, probably around the xxxxxxxxxxxxxx, and especially when the Fed’s RRP facility is effectively out of cash, which isn’t likely until xxxxxxxxx. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

    Meanwhile, let’s run through the charts and data so that you can see the logic behind this conclusion. First a review of how this conclusion has evolved over the past couple of months. Non-subscribers, click here for access.

    KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality! 

    For moron the markets, see:   

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  22. The Bottom is Zen 4/15/24

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, SiP said:

    So the economy is running hot

    Growth in Federal Tax Withholding Remained Solid in March

    Federal tax withholding–the combined amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily by employers to the U.S. Treasury–continued to increase at a solid, healthy pace in March. We estimate that economywide withholding grew by 5.8 percent in March (compared to the amount in March 2023), about the same as the 6.0 percent growth recorded in February and in line with the range of 5 percent to 7 percent recorded in each month since May 2023, with the exception of a dip this past January (again, comparing all amounts of withholding to those from the same month in the prior year, see the chart below).

    https://taxtracking.com/growth-in-federal-tax-withholding-remained-solid-in-march/

    March Withholding Tax Collections Actually Stunk 

  24. The Bottom is Zen 4/15/24

    in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board

    Posted

    The ES 24 hour futures have broken through a signal strip, but immediately paused. IT needs to hold above 5145 in the early going to stay on the buy side. Otherwise, hippobottomus. 

    One difference on this rally so far is that it's not starting like it's shot from guns, so maybe it will have more staying power than puffed rice this time. 

    14e80r

    That may be a little extreme, but indications that the 6-month cycle down phase, which has shown up very late in the cycle, xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx potential. That’s consistent with another month of xxxxxxxx liquidity ahead. Non subscribers click here to access.

    Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.

    Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! 

     

    For moron the markets, see:   

    If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder. 

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