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DrStool

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  1. This is the 5 hour bars of the ES. The June low was 3636.8 What a Whipsaw! Here’s How Big The Move Will Be
  2. Nice is a very laid back place. It is a wealthy city by European standards, and one of the most popular summer resorts in the world. I noticed many more Americans here than usual this year as the USD has strengthened against the euro. It used to be an anomaly to hear Americans in the street. Now it's so common, I don't even turn my head. Most tourists come from the north. For the French, the Riviera is the Jersey Shore and the Hamptons rolled into one. And of course you know about Monaco, which is 12 miles from here. The French Riviera has long been a haven for the Russian oligarchs. They've disappeared this year. Far fewer super yachts in the yacht basins. September is still considered high season, but it is not the same as August. It's about half as busy here now as in the first two weeks of August. So, yes, the stresses are not as apparent here as in the rest of Europe. FxFox lives in Germany. He's a native and in better position to have his finger on the pulse of the popular mood in Europe. Given the German perspective on inflation, that would be interesting. I just don't have the contact with the media here that the locals do.
  3. 10 Year yield reaches trend resistance convergence. Opportune place for a short term top. If it breaks out above 3.81, all hell gonna break loose. Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead
  4. Measured move implication is 1300. Small Comfort for Gold Holders
  5. I don't see any real sign of stress yet here in the South of France. Hotels are still full, and rates are high. Restaurants are busy and I haven't seen much in the way of price increases lately. I noticed rising prices earlier in the summer. I don't follow local media however. I am far from fluent in French.
  6. Well now, that did a lot, didn't it. Look, I've said it before and I'll say it again. The Fed is the black hole at the center of the worldwide banking system. So long as it is withdrawing cash and the ECB and BoJ are either still adding or standing pat, their currencies will fall against the dollar. The reason is simple. There are constantly fewer dollars and the same or more yen and euros. So the dollar's price will continue to rise in yen and euros. The idea that the BoJ can intervene and change that trend by selling USD and buying Yen is a pipedream. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD looks set to go over another cliff as it heads for a measured move target of 0.90, based on its big top breakdown. Here's the very long term view on that. Meanwhile back at the US market, I would say that the ES 24 hour S&P futures are taking aim at the 5 day cycle projection of 3700. But that would be wrong. Because they're already there for all intents and purposes. But don't forget that measured move target of 3660 or so. That's still out there. Meanwhile, back at the big picture: Swing Trade Screens – Restrained Bearish Instincts September 20, 2022 What a Whipsaw! Here’s How Big The Move Will Be September 19, 2022 In the Goldrums September 16, 2022 Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022 There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Trailing Stops Did Their Job To Preserve Profits September 12, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Won’t Show It September 2, 2022 Warnings of August Liquidity Crash Come to Fruition – Here’s What to Do August 28, 2022 Has Rule Number One Been Repealed? August 18, 2022 “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
  7. double bottom with a slight positive divergence. I doubt it will hold, but what I think is irrelevant.
  8. But that's my hood. I live 3 blocks away. My first stay in Nice a couple years back was just off the right side of that photo. I had a view of the port and the sea, and la Colline du Chateau.
  9. And again, the Fed's sham increase in the sham Fed Funds rate at 75 BP fell short of the 100 BP rise in market rates since the last Fed rate "increase" 6 weeks ago. The Fed Fake Funds rate was "raised" to 3-3.25, while the 13 week T-bill, which is a real market, trades at 3.34. The Fed just keeps running to keep up with the market. Liquidity Trader- Money Trends How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!
  10. I have to get out of my apartment for a couple of days. They are pouring a new subfloor. Hotel rates here are still stratospheric, so I'm looking for a comfortable spot under the arches at Place Garibaldi. There's a nice community of old Polish fellows living there that I can join for a few days, considering that I speak a few Polish phrases. Ayyyyy! Jak się masz! I just need to get some cardboard boxes at the Monoprix to make my bed. During the day, there's a business center café in the Hotel du Pin, across the street from my apartment, where I can hang out, do some work, and chat wit youse. I hope they let me use the WC. Meanwhile, today is, of course, 22 9 22 in European terms. The first day of Fall. First day of the Post FOMC Circus Fall. But what about the rest of the Fall. Follow that story at Liquidity Trader. I missed the dog and pony show yesterday. What did MC Cool Jay have to say? It's only 4:20 AM in New York, a little early to guess what the day will look like in the stock market. Yesterday's head and shoulders top at a bottom breakdown measured to 3750ish. That's done. But there was a bigger pattern that measures to 3650ish that suggests more downside. The bigger patterns are less reliable than the smaller ones, so I don't know about that second target. 5 day cycle projection was overshot. There's a 2-3 day cycle projection of 3730 still hanging out there, but hourly oscillators have upticked and an upturn is due on that cycle. Considering all that, I'd lean toward today being a consolidation day. Likely range 3735-3825, or 3845 if the manage to punch out 3825. Meanwhile, the big picture: Swing Trade Screens – Restrained Bearish Instincts September 20, 2022 What a Whipsaw! Here’s How Big The Move Will Be September 19, 2022 In the Goldrums September 16, 2022 Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022 There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – Trailing Stops Did Their Job To Preserve Profits September 12, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Won’t Show It September 2, 2022 Warnings of August Liquidity Crash Come to Fruition – Here’s What to Do August 28, 2022 Has Rule Number One Been Repealed? August 18, 2022 “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
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