Jump to content

DrStool

Admin
  • Posts

    83,647
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    288

Everything posted by DrStool

  1. Meanwhile, the Fed chooses not to even try to attack the problem. It falls farther below the real trend of interest rates in the market, which race ahead while remaining 5 or 6 percentage points below the printed inflation rates, and probably 10% below the actual inflation rate including housing measured accurately.
  2. Today is day 10 in traders' hell. The narrowest part of the range that needs to be broken to get anything started on the hourly ES, S&P 24 hour continuous fuguetures is 4107-4148. But to really break the pattern enough to get something going on the downside they would need to punch below 4100. On the upside, the next resistance and top of the pattern is at 4195. The hourly oscillators look bottomy and a 5 day cycle low is due. From that perspective the bulls would have the edge today. Even if they do, it shouldn't last long. Of course today at 8:30 AM ET we get CPI. That should get something going. Here's my favorite chart of government "inflation" pre CPI release. Of course, none of these really measure inflation as defined as a rise in the general price level, because they all exclude house prices and understate rent increases. And the government's use of contract rents rather than actual current market rents means that the change in the rent component will lag the market by many months, if not a year or more. So when market rents start to moderate or decline, contract rents will lag that change, leaving the government's inflation prints higher than actual for months. We're not there yet, but that will punch the government statistical manipulators in the face. Then there's the business of hedonic replacements, replacing goods that are rising fastest with goods that are similar but with less utility and lower quality, and of course lower prices and slower price increases. So yeah, general inflation really is closer to 13% than 9%. But hey, who's counting? Certainly not the Fed. To understand and profit from the big picture check out the following. Swing Trade Screens – One Bad Trade Hurt But the Rest Bailed Us Out for a Win August 8, 2022 Fasten Your Seatbelts – Updated Cycle Projections Are Shocking August 8, 2022 “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022 Upon Further Review Gold Bottom Call Stands August 5, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over August 2, 2022 The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
  3. Looking at the hourly chart of the 24 hour continuous ES S&P fuguetures, the question is whether we have another potential top in the making. It's too soon to tell. First they would need to drop to 4101.8. Then they would need to break it. Until that happens, nothing doodooing. We doo have at least the semblance of a downtrend channel in the making. Get it? Making? But if they clear 4146, that's the end of that. End. heehee. Barring something breaking, we are doomed. Doomed, I say. To another day in this interminable, now 8 trading day old trading range. So this afternoon, I think I'll resume painting my apartment. That way I can watch paint dry. To understand and profit from the big picture check out the following. Swing Trade Screens – One Bad Trade Hurt But the Rest Bailed Us Out for a Win August 8, 2022 Fasten Your Seatbelts – Updated Cycle Projections Are Shocking August 8, 2022 “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022 Upon Further Review Gold Bottom Call Stands August 5, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over August 2, 2022 The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
  4. The reverse repos are the slush fund. They just haven't used it as such yet. The Fed may need to force their hand. Bonne nuit et bonne chance!
  5. I think that the settlement has more influence than the auction. Not consistently, but often. Watch, the RRPs. If they come down, that could be the slush fund effect that I've been watching for, for the past year but hasn't happened yet.
  6. Does anyone here live in a place whose name rhymes with Doritos?
  7. Well, it's hard to believe, but the 2 hour bar chart on the ES, S&P 24 hour fugutures suggests that we're going up for a couple more days. Seems there's a nice little cycle running 8-10 trading days that has just turned up again, with the market attacking resistance here in the pre market. Zooming in to the usual hourly view, you can see that the market has edged above the August 4 high. It's not a breakout yet, but it is a tell. The 2-3 day cycle projection is 4195. To understand and profit from the big picture check out the following. Fasten Your Seatbelts – Updated Cycle Projections Are Shocking August 8, 2022 “As Good as It Gets” Was Good While It Lasted August 6, 2022 Upon Further Review Gold Bottom Call Stands August 5, 2022 Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything August 3, 2022 Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over August 2, 2022 Swing Trade Screens – We Had Longs, Yay! But… August 1, 2022 The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers July 27, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
  8. It has been effectively zero for a long time. Ever since sweep accounts.
  9. As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time LEE ADLER 1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER- MONEY TRENDS JULY 18, 2022
  10. Today, I bought paint. I'm going to paint one wall of my apartment to start.
  11. To red channel or not to red channel, that is the question.
  12. Trend resistance on the 10 year is at 2.90 today. Clear that, and they'll be at 3.50 by the middle of next week. I'll update that today, I hope. I'm a day behind. Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything
  13. That Bloomberg piece the other day on the 10 year being headed for 2% absolutely nailed the bottom in yields. Almost to the minute of publication. Those guys are good. Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything
  14. Actually, it's easy to know what actual jobs growth is doing. But predicting the NFP number is hard. Because the BLS methodology is so convoluted, nobody can predict it. I think it has a lot to do with catching up with the errors in the prior months. But it's really hit or miss. In fact, economists estimates, are usually, but not always, closer to the facts. The BLS is making it up as it goes. The birth death adjustment in particular, is nonsense. And the X-13 Arima seasonal manipulation is an absolute joke. Liquidity Trader- Money Trends How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!
  15. They (BLS) may be dumb, but they're not stupid. Liquidity Trader- Money Trends How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!
  16. They also build catch up adjustments into the new data, because they don't want to make the revisions too large. It makes them look bad. Instead they put the revision into the new number to make the Street look bad. Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over
  17. Note that June NFP had a big upward revision too. Eventually, the BLS guess catches up as they adjust to reality. Liquidity Trader- Money Trends How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!
  18. June was a blockbuster, and July solid. Withholding Tax Collections Solid in July, But Here’s Why the Party is Over
  19. Correct. The real data has never supported the recession calls, with the exception of the dip in May.
  20. Not true. Treasury Confirms Supply Tsunami We Expected – Will Obliterate Everything I detailed where it came from in that report. It came from exactly where it was supposed to come from given the data we already had, and published government forecasts. Only people who ignore that data are mystified. We were not.
×
  • Create New...