I guess I'm just one of those "nothing surprises me" skeptics.
For example, the creeping Trump dictatorship hasn't surprised me for one second. Nor would it surprise me if he and his sycophants are overwhelmingly defeated in the next election.
It would also not surprise me if there is no election, or if it is rigged for him to win.
A military coup would not surprise me. A White House coup would not surprise me.
The end of constitutional government would not surprise me. I'd be more surprised if a functioning constitutional government of laws re-emerged.
We are in a fluid situation. Anything can happen.
The idea that drones can attack an oil facility is not a black swan.
And black swans don't turn markets anyway.
In fact, there are no black swans. Plenty of people have already thought about, foreseen, and acted upon everything that can happen.