DrStool

End of month Treasury settlement. $79 billion gross. $58 billion net of T-bill paydowns. 13 week bill rate is surging again, back to 1.80, 22 bp above fective fed funds.

And that's the way it is.

Why not just short the futures?

You're shorting something that doesn't exist. BITI is a fund that is short BTC futures. It breaks my brain to try to think of what that means.

That's purdy. Still gonna call the 5 day cycle projection 3780, but sport lines are at 3765.

The ES S&P 24 hour fuguetures have a 5 day cycle projection of 3780 on the hourly chart. It doesn't guarantee that they'll get there. There's trend support at 3800. But if that breaks, the next trend support is around 3765-70. It looks like a more likely target than 3880. Any bounces that don't clear 3830 would suggest more downside ahead. Conversely, if 3800 holds, and then they break 3830, fasten your seatbelts for a rocket ride to 3900 again. Meanwhile the crypto kids can't seem to get it going, with BTC on the way to a 1 year cycle projection of 9-12k and a long term measured move target of 5000 below zero. And the 10 year yield is still firmly ensconced in its uptrend channel, despite the big pullback this month. There's a huge coupon settlement coming tomorrow, only partly offset by T-bill paydowns. It will be a big test. Meanwhile, for gold bugs, Gold Nears Triggers That Would Signal Brutal Outlook. Follow how pre-determined and known liquidity flows drive stock and bond prices here . I will show you and tell you exactly how the major forces of macro liquidity move not just the bond market, but stocks as well. Liquidity analysis sets the context for technical analysis. It helps us to narrow the focus of our chart reading to the outcomes that are most likely, given the circumstances. To better understand the big picture right now so that you can take the correct action when the time is right, check out the following: Gold Nears Triggers That Would Signal Brutal Outlook June 29, 2022 Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28, 2022 Bulls Have Hope This Week, Bears Wary of Pump June 27, 2022 The Spike Is Here, So Here’s What to Expect June 26, 2022 We Knew QT Would Be Devastating, But You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet June 21, 2022 Dealers Assume the Position, as 75 BPs Coming Wednesday June 13, 2022 The US Economy, Including Jobs, Collapsed in May June 2, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.

BTC is sitting on the toilet getting ready to take a dump.

The Fed stress tests assumed -55% in stocks 40% in CRE, and the Fed says that the banks would still have adequate capital. First of all, it means that it thinks it can let that happen. Second of all, it's wrong. The dominoes will start falling well before those parameters are hit.

Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity

I'm really surprised that that rally didn't stick at all. I thought a little pullback, then more upside. WRONG. Maybe Tamara?

Oh is this going to end badly. Chasing the last decade's winning horse.

I'm a little bummed that the market is selling off here. Last short on my chart pick list got stopped out yesterday. Bummer. Train may be leaving the station without us. I may need to interrupt this program for a special bulletin, but first gotta write a report.

Or watching the US become a fascist theocracy. Now that the Supreme Court has legalized school prayer, I hope that the Satanists demand equal time. H/t to Seth Abramson for that idea.

Minimal so far. But keep in mind that this is a continuum. The reduction in QE that began 2 years ago was actually the beginning of QT. Any reduction in printing is tightening. So they've just been gradually ratcheting up the pressure every few months. It's a frog slowly boiling on the street in the sun. First it just gets sleepy. Then it's dead. Kind of like human life, come to think of it.

The market benefitted from exceptionally light supply in June.

Yes.

Testing testing.

Sport lines converge 3860.

LOL Power back on. I feel like I'm back in FL.

But gonna shut down and take a nap so as not to use up my battree.

I'm sending this message on battery and my phone as a hotspot. Ain't technology grand.

Second power outage of the day on this stormy day here in Nice. First heavy rain in the 5 months I have lived here.

Just imagine all the investors who can't wait for their shares to be diluted and who are lined up to buy more bank bonds. Woowoo.

Been warning about this. Fed requires some banks to raise capital reserves New Liquidity Trader report later today.

I don't think it's productive to dream of what internal constraints the Fed may or may not have. They have enough problems with what's going on outside their walls. The markets will force a policy change way before the Fed faces any such possible constraints. Personally, for practical purposes, I don't think there are any.