DrStool

Here's the impact of the liquidation necessary to fund that $125 billion payment that came due yesterday. Supply absorption ain't free. Next stop 4.50, or instant reversal? The End Is Not Nigh March 26, 2024

So now that the $125 billion in net new Treasury coupon issuance was put away yesterday, let the deluge of paydowns refill investors' cash coffers. The End Is Not Nigh March 26, 2024 Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly Held Maturing Net New Cash or (Pay Down) 04/04/2024 Bills $205,000 $219,006 $(14,006) 04/02/2024 Bills $215,000 $240,961 $(25,961)

I almost forgot to give us this day our daily thread. I will sum it up in one word. Doink. New 5 day cycle projection 5175. For moron the markets, see: Gold Goes Space Needle April 1, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Extended Uptrend Yields Just One New Pick March 31, 2024 Nowhere to Go but Up March 31, 2024 The End Is Not Nigh March 26, 2024 Don’t Stop Never Disbelieving March 24, 2024 Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024 The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices March 4, 2024 Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February March 3, 2024 We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Fed – We Make Money from Nothing February 26, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

2-3 day cycle projection 5235 done.

It's the Treasuries, Stupid. Warned about this. The End Is Not Nigh Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly Held Maturing Net New Cash or (Pay Down) 04/01/2024 Coupons $217,000 $92,224 $124,776

Uptrend busted and hourly cycle oscillators dip to the sell side from a pronounced negative divergence. This is interesting for bears but the big trend spport line is around 5245. Swing Trade Screen Picks – Extended Uptrend Yields Just One New Pick

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Extended Uptrend Yields Just One New Pick LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER MARCH 31, 2024 The screens found 384 total buys and 238 total sells last week. Among those were 26 short term buy signals and 15 short term sell signals that were actually triggered on one of the days. On Thursday only (final trading day last week), there were 117 total buys and 57 sells. 11 buys and 4 sells were triggered Thursday. Non-subscribers click here for access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. However, I couldn’t find much in the way of low risk trend structures. The buys were mostly already extended or one of a series of whipsaw signals. The sells were mostly still in uptrends, and will be subjected to rebounds from rising trend support. Non-subscribers click here for access. March was a good month. The average gain for picks closed out this month was 7.3% on an average holding period of 32 calendar days. The average gain on picks still open plus those closed out last week was 16.7% on an average holding period of 31 calendar days. Past performance does not suggest future results. Non-subscribers click here for access. Publication is on a weekly interval, but with revised methodology I now review charts daily. There are now 3 layers of screens. The first is the raw output various buy and sell triggers. The second filters those for intermediate trend. The third is a filter of short-term signal triggers. The new method reduces the final output to a manageable number for final visual review and selection for the list. Non-subscribers click here for access. I want the output to be simple to follow and to require only a few minutes to review and implement each week. I post a table with specific signal indications along with the charts of the new buy and sell short picks so that you can evaluate them and do with them as you might. Non-subscribers click here for access. We came into last week with 11 open picks, including 4 shorts and 7 longs. One long and one short hit their stops during the week leaving 3 short and 6 longs at the end of the week. I am adding just one long and no shorts this week, to start the week with 7 longs and 3 shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access. I have adjusted stops for all existing picks. New picks will be added without stops. Risk management is assumed via multiple small positions that won’t break the bank if they go wrong. Non-subscribers click here for access. Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!

Europe is on holiday today, so it's kind of quiet, but of course US stocks start the week on an up note. What else is new? The ES 24 hour S&P futures made a new high overnight. They're pulling back in the 7-8 AM hour, with trend support upcoming at 5260-63. That line will be around 5265 as NY opens. The overnight high was about 5275. The overnight high base breakout measures to 5315. The 5 day cycle projection is 5295. The 5 day cycle is out of whack, now more than 6 trading sessions past the last peak. So it's a horse of a different fire department. I'm thinking trending mode until it tells us otherwise. That would necessarily start with a break of the aforementioned support trendline. Liquidity is seasonally bullish. The End Is Not Nigh Nowhere to Go but Up LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER MARCH 31, 2024 There’s no sign of meaningful downside from the cycle picture, even though a late 6-month cycle down phase remains a possibility. Here’s what to look for next. Non subscribers click here to access. Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report. Cycles – The 10-12 month cycle projection has risen to xxxx. The high is ideally due xxxxxxx-xxxxxxxx. A 6-month cycle low is ideally due on xxxx xxx. A down phase hasn’t materialized. While there’s still time, it may not, due to xxxxxxxx xxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx in April. Non subscribers click here to access. Third Rail – . The SPX could be making a double top, but Thursday’s high exceeded the earlier high by a hair. If they’re going to top out, they usually miss by a hair. The odds favor xxxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx. If they take out the high, there’s immédiate clearance to xxxx, rising to xxxx at the end of the week. Non subscribers click here to access. There are a couple of trend support lines at xxxx-xxxx on Monday which would need to be broken for a pullback to happen. The first support area is at xxxx. Only if that’s broken would we get the beginnings of a bigger top pattern. Non subscribers click here to access. Long-Term Weekly Chart – 3/24/24 An updated 3-4 year cycle projection now points to xxxx, ideally due in 2025. Non subscribers click here to access. Monthly Chart – A strong March turned long-term momentum to the buy side, signaling a likely 7-year cycle up phase. The top of the uptrend channel is around xxxx in April. If cleared, the next trend resistance and target would be roughly xxxx. The upper channel line would become support. For now, xxxx is support. Non subscribers click here to access. Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days! For moron the markets, see: Gold Goes Space Needle April 1, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Extended Uptrend Yields Just One New Pick March 31, 2024 Nowhere to Go but Up March 31, 2024 The End Is Not Nigh March 26, 2024 Don’t Stop Never Disbelieving March 24, 2024 Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024 The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices March 4, 2024 Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February March 3, 2024 We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Fed – We Make Money from Nothing February 26, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

Brutal Happy Easter and see you Monday! A lundi, Bon weekend, and bonne chance!

Just announced. Markets have closed early in observance of Good Friday. They are calling the pre holiday closure, Horseshit Thursday.

There are no more operative red channels on the hourly chart of the ES 24 hour S&P futures. That means the only thing to stop a rally will be uptrending resistance or loss of demand momentum. A 5 day cycle projection suggests that that's likely around 5265, but the conventional measured move target of the reverse head and shoulders breakout looks higher. Depending on how its drawn, it could be 5270-5285. A 5 day cycle high is ideally due this morning, so after the expected rally, a couple of weaker days would be in order. Spport levels that would need to be broken to get anything going on the downside would be 5238 and 5224 for starters. If they clear last week's high of 5260, then we'll be looking at 5300 PDQ. For moron the markets, see: The End Is Not Nigh March 26, 2024 Don’t Stop Never Disbelieving March 24, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Stocks Barnburner Set for Conflagration March 23, 2024 Gold Enters Hibernation Season March 22, 2024 Primary Dealers Raise Red Flag March 20, 2024 Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024 The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices March 4, 2024 Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February March 3, 2024 We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Fed – We Make Money from Nothing February 26, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

I went into the day nearly half short. However, I kept getting cover signals and by the end I was only 10% short. But I made zip on the day. Hopefully the longs will make good Tamara.

Just came back from dinner. WTF wuzzat?

IOW Never say never short a dull market. Because everyone never knows. That is all.

Never short a dull market does not always work.

The bond market is completely unfazed as it looks forward to April and May cash influx. The End Is Not Nigh

Let the paydowns begin. But only after a massive coupon settlement. The End Is Not Nigh Date Security Type Total Offering Total Publicly Held Maturing Net New Cash or (Pay Down) 04/02/2024 Bills $215,000 $240,961 $(25,961) 04/01/2024 Coupons $217,000 $92,224 $124,776 03/28/2024 Bills $213,000 $216,999 $(3,999) 03/28/2024 Coupons $16,000 $0 $16,000

Resistance cleared. Needs to hold above 5233 this hour. Don’t Stop Never Disbelieving

We will test that maxim in the 7-8 AM hour in New York as the ES 24 hour S&P futures run into a trend resistance convergence at 5233. If they clear that little obstacle, there will be immediate running room to 5250. If they don't clear it, they won't have far to go to hit the first spport level, which is around 5218-20. If they break that, then they should pull it back to test yesterday's low around 5205. So once again, it doesn't look like a very exciting day again. Only if the market breaks out of that range is a real move likely. The 5 day cycle up phase hasn't gotten off the ground and a high is due in that cycle today or tomorrow. Mid day Thursday to Friday's close and perhaps Monday present a better chance of a breakdown from this range. That assumes no upside breakout today. The End Is Not Nigh For moron the markets, see: The End Is Not Nigh March 26, 2024 Don’t Stop Never Disbelieving March 24, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Stocks Barnburner Set for Conflagration March 23, 2024 Gold Enters Hibernation Season March 22, 2024 Primary Dealers Raise Red Flag March 20, 2024 Swing Trade Screen Picks – Adding Stops to Take Profits March 17, 2024 A Top is In, But Which One Is It March 17, 2024 Gold Due for Pause that Refreshes March 15, 2024 Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024 The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices March 4, 2024 Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February March 3, 2024 We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Fed – We Make Money from Nothing February 26, 2024 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.

Le calme avant le tempete.

Brutal.

Top of the old forms the base of the new. Don’t Stop Never Disbelieving

The slush fund is rising. The End Is Not Nigh