DrStool

Please don't attribute your own ideas to "everybody knows." You are the first and only person I've seen to say that. The issue here is not the virus. It was merely the pin that pricked the greatest, most widespread, internconnected and complex asset bubble the world has ever seen.

What he said.

Dr. Doom and Gloom Stool

Not quire right. All of the money that the Fed pumps into the Primary Dealers is spent into the economy. Every penny. The Fed is monetizing the Treasury Debt. The dealers are just middle men getting a cut. That $500 billion that the Fed pumped in this week went into the Treasury's account within days, and it's being spent as we speak. Bank deposits and money supply are soaring. I have to think that this is extremely bullish for gold, but we have to let the technicals do the talking on that. Other governments are also borrowing and spending at never before seen levels. At the same time, production of everthing is being cut. It's not hard to imagine $200 oil or $5000 gold. So far, the evidence is that the money printing is outracing the money destruction, by far, especially since stocks have stabilized in recent weeks.

we could have a hyperinflation bull market. $500 billion a week in money printing by the Fed alone is enough to trigger massive inflation.

Helluva chart. Yes, I think the current environment is quite similar. The 90% leverage that killed the market in 1929 is even worse today. Forget retail margin requirements. Meaningless. The whales are all using repo and all kinds of other credit and hedging. Plus the futures market barely existed in 1929. I don't know how to compare the leverage now versus then, but I think that today is just as bad or worse. Layers and layers of shit upon shit. Structured finance is worse than cancer.

That's my unscientific, and as yet half assed theory, which I will flesh out in Liquidity Trader.

By the way. I have another website. It's called the Wall Street Examiner. It has some good articles. Obviously this time is very, very different from the past dozen years. We had the greatest crash in history and it came from the very top, not a second wave, as is historically the norm. The banking system is wiped out. There's no resiliency because the bubble expanded too far. Its surface became brittle. The surface collapsed instantly. There's no internal structure to hold anything together, so great was the leverage. All of the net capital in the world has been utterly destroyed. There's no capital. The system is insolvent. It is now taking 300-400 billion a week of cash injections into primary dealers, and countless billions of other support operations by the Fed and other central banks to keep the system barely functioning at all. We are in final and total systemic collapse. We may be starting a cyclical bull market, but I doubt that it will retrace even 50% of the first leg down. I believe that this is November 1929. The market will be higher this summer, but much lower by this time next year.

They suck.

It's possible. But I tend to think it's November 1929, not November 1987.

Zagreb is a very photogenic town. I haven't scratched the surface. Gonna go out for a walk now. Improvised facemask.

I had to stop taking photos because of this fucking virus. http://instagram.com/200daysineurope

Despite the rants.

If I was in it for recognition I would have killed myself a long time ago. But I like life too much.

I don't really care. I do this because it's a compulsion. I think everybody knows that.