DrStool

Treasury just announced another $30 billion in bill paydowns settling next week. That's a total of $55 billion for the week, and $205 billion since the first installment in this rescue on Feb 23.

Disorder. Illiquidity. Treasury sending in $30 billion today.

Drama queen.

Sport levels. 3785. 3765, 3750

Break a channel, start a new one. They won't color between the lines, but the trend is clear.

For me and my fellow digital nomads in Europe, we are at a moment of truth in the EUR/USD exchange rate. If it falls below 1.20, we're in good shape. But if it starts to uptick from here, we'll need to work harder to maintain purchasing power! 😉 Note that since I came to Europe in November 2019, I saw my dollars erode in value by 15% at the peak in January. Still 11%. USD has been trash as Europeans and other non US investors sell Treasuries and repatriate their investment principal back into euros.

The 10 year Treasury yield hit its move projection but is hanging around. Of course that means that bond prices are stuck near their lows. That's the real problem, not that the yield is at 1.5%. That won't break anyone's back. But when your bond portfolio is only worth $85 and you borrowed a $100 to acquire and hold it, you're in deep shit. That's about what the current situation is for many holders, including especially Primary Dealers. The enforcers are banging at your door with lead pipes. They want their money, and you don't have it. So here we have this b

Bitcoin hit a 6 month cycle projection of 57,000. So is this a top or a consolidation. Don't know. Watch the channel line now at 45,200. The trend is bullish if that stays intact. Swing cycle oscillators are on the sell side, but remain in positive territory. That suggests consolidation unless they drop materially below their respective zero lines. But if they do, BTC will drop to 35,000 in a heartbeat.

The S&P futures were down 35 points from the NY close yesterday at 11 PM ET last night. They rallied back to even at 3 AM. They are again down 22 as we near 5 AM in NY. Good morning, and welcome to a newly drawn crash channel on the hourly chart. Click to engorge The ES needs to be above 3800 by the time New York opens to break this trend. When we left the ballpark last night, the 5 day cycle projection was 3795. They broke that before recovering from "sport" lines around 3780. There's no such thing as "support" in a bear market. Is this a bear market? Well

Ciao from Zadar, or as the Italians call it- Zara!

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ah geez

A voice in my head is telling me that there will be a shitload of sell signals from the screens tonight. I've already had a ton of them but discounted them because structurally they were still in uptrends, and I don't like to short uptrends. Boofuckinghoo.

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