I'm going to post this one more time, then tuck it away in the archives...
^HUI 175.70 must hold...or, well. I'll just say this. In all markets..."when the next sign of strength arrives...a trader should respect the direction".
If not...the hits will keep coming until the lesson is learned.
The Nikkei is in a "Twin Peaks" topping formation. It's the SLV hybrid variety where you split the peak in two pieces...then analyze. A very common, but deadly pattern. As tight as this is wound, I'd imagine you're going to explode out the lower side once 26k is breached. From experience....no need to re-evaluate until 16k.
The pattern is essentially complete...so it's coming very soon. Personally...I think it's already started.
I used to follow(and trade) the Nikkei back in my younger days, although...it's been many moons and the popularity of the Nikkei died off in the mid 90's.
This is where I split the pattern. If you pull up the SLV 2011 topping pattern and do the same you'll know exactly where you are in the formation. The 3rd peak under the line of division is the death knell.
I should mention...the whole world is in the same situation.
I just had a flashback to a promise I made to Jimi...So...I'm going to add this chart quickly. Make note of the support at 26. Until...it wasn't...it will be the same at 26k.
When I penned yesterday that like in life you're not guaranteed another tomorrow, nor are you guaranteed another rally. I couldn't help but think of a post from a couple of weeks ago by fxfox as I was typing that out.
fxfox had mentioned 2900 in the SPX and it just so happened that very morning I was looking over the 500 point H&S developing and I thought to myself...2900 seems about right here.
At the time, which was October 15th...and I can't remember if I posted this chart or not. I had named the chart "fxfox WILL get his 2900". To me...if you can't break above this resistance right here at 3800, you're not going to see the tests of the above range...you're going down now.
That is what was in my mind when I typed out my thoughts yesterday...and I wanted to make it known.
I could very well be wrong, but something...to me...just doesn't feel right. Doc quoted Jimbo's post this morning. It's the words that are sitting there that are haunting me. I've already said it...the 13th felt artificial. Since that day...well, I've put my Missouri glasses on. If this rally has any strength behind it...you're gonna have to Show-Me.
Here is the original chart. I found it in the Recycle Bin...
While I don't feel the "time" is appropriate for this chart series just yet...I do keep my promises.
Not to mention...this pattern takes a while to grasp. The more time you have to comprehend what is actually taking place...I feel the more successful you'll be when it comes time to "pull the trigger".
From this day forward...I will not let this topic rest. I'll be keeping this on the front burner on a nice slow simmer. I'll eke out a chart out here and there and then follow it up at the right "time" with a very strong conclusion.
So..to kick this off I'm going to start with an old chart of mine. I developed this chart as we were heading into the peak at 325 in the ^HUI, although it is just another rendition from a much earlier chart that I have been following for several years. The chart is nothing more than a comparison chart between Yamana Gold and the ^HUI GoldBug Index.
I've used just this chart to make 100% of my calls in the ^HUI since 2018.
Why? and How?
Well, as I alluded to in an earlier comment...the goldbugs have been trodding on rich soil for years now AND I do mean years. I just don't think they realize how fertile the ground is under their feet. Yet. It is my intention as we go forward to start yanking on that curtain harder and harder until everyone gets a good eyeful as to what is hiding on the other side.
Today...is just a tug, but I assure you...it's a tug in the right direction.
After all...you know the old saying. "You can't trade, what you can't SEE."
The above chart is nothing more than a clip of the right side of the "bottoming pattern" in the Yamana(YRI.to) chart during the 2002 to 2003 period.
At the time, those who were bullish on gold and gold stocks were quite excited as we came out of the whole we'd dug ourselves into at the end of 2000. I remember the ^HUI had finally bottomed at 35 or 36. Then rallied just about through the first half of 2001. Although...it soon flipped into a consolidation pattern and many of the new goldbugs were losing faith.
Just as we lost a few...the advance that came out that consolidation made many wealthy almost overnight. It was there that many guys were hooked. Goldbugs were becoming numerous.
Now...during the next consolidation...the guys who came in late were getting shaken around because the peaks were higher, but the troughs...well, they were troughs alright. A lot of guys couldn't take it.
That is where I introduced...this "bottoming pattern". This pattern is the most bullish pattern I know. If I was young again...I'd just be hunting for these and then hold on for dear life. I've ridden enough of them to know. It just doesn't get any better than this...
The first chart I'll post here is nothing more than a plain comparison chart.
This comparison is between Yamana's major low in 2002-2003 to the current Weekly Chart in the ^HUI.
And...I'd actually like you to take a copy of this chart in its naked form and save it for later comparison when you're hunting for your own vehicles.
I'm going to post the chart again and add 4 simple blue circles at the peaks in both issues.
The two blue circles in the chart are representing the two peaks that must be present for the pattern to be valid. Study the formations between the two peaks carefully.
Let's add three rules(with explanations).
1) It doesn't matter which peak is higher.
The patterns can be left or right side dominant.
2) The pattern doesn't have to match - completely and in some case. Not at all.
This might sound a little strange at first, but once you understand the pattern and start finding these all over the place...I think you'll get it. I will mention...there are several known varieties(all will be covered).
When pattern matching...the validity will usually be higher if you have at least a right or left pattern match. Although...in some issues. There is a solid reason why the patterns don't match and you need to discover why. Think alternation...
3) The ensuing decline from the right peak does NOT have to make a new low.
Although...it usually does. You really have to take each individual issue and "weigh it against itself" before coming to any conclusions. If you can't discover how the issue operates. Here is my own personal rule. If it is NOT a leading issue in its industry(or hated by the establishment), expect a lower low.
You need to study this pattern between the peaks. Every peak and valley. As mentioned...there are several forms of this bottoming pattern. Over time. I will cover them all. Not to mention...'alternating' patterns WITHIN the pattern.
Ok...now let's go back to the beginning where my analysis of the current advance(and decline) of the ^HUI was borne from. We'll post the same chart again, but add the circles from the original chart. This...is where my analysis of the ^HUI was derived from. A simple chart from Yamana that is 20 years old.
Then...I did exactly what I taught my prior students to do...I played the ^HUI against itself as demonstrated in "Can you BELIEVE it Now" from June 24, 2022.
There is nothing more potent than learning to "play an issue against itself" in any arsenal. If you could put this one arrow in your quiver...you'd never need another one.
Think all of this over. Don't rush yourself...give it some time.
Perhaps, after you've thought about this and studied for awhile you can really start to see the market through my eyes?
Take a look at the SLV again...
Here is another chart. This time...CCJ. this is another variety of the pattern, different outcome too.
Although, now you could begin to see why the insiders were buying platinum, yellowcake and copper. Although, it would have been nice if they mentioned this to the retail guys before the shares exploded?
No worries...as you can see below, you get another shot.
"This pattern once understood, will warn you of incoming super cycles".
And for those will keen skills of observation. Yes...I AM teaching you to measure from the center to the outside. Wait until I start adding time/price to the mix.
Then it gets real fun...
One step at a time. Patience in all things...
The Nutty Ol' CoinGuy
Anyone remember the run in BHP? Now...take another look at CCJ. Can you SEE it?
I realize many of you have zero background in technical analysis and rely primarily on fundamentals.
Although, even a staunch fundamentalist will entertain a chart here and there that has been drawn up by economists and the occasional statistician.
On this very forum, I’ve seen a couple of fellow forum members draw up a chart or two. So I know some of you have exposure to technical analysis. Perhaps, through Elliott Wave or E&M? Typically these forms rely on utilizing indicators, wave counts or moving averages. I tend to avoid relying on this form of analysis and one of the first things I used to teach a new student is to turn off the indicators...and use nothing more than...instinct. Why? I equate using Indicators to a form of passivity that should be avoided. Much like watching television. And yes...there is a better way. When you turn off the indicators...you turn ON something else.
Now...for those who do deem themselves to be technical anal cysts or budding technical anal cysts...and are watching the “standard” indicators I’d imagine you’re viewing those positive divergences in the MACD(daily) and the Dover Sole condition we’re currently in and would conclude - The bottom is in.
While, we do have to respect the “Low with Nefarious Origins” from the 13th(more on that later)...let us not let this low lull us into any form of complacency. Lest I start to feel the need to remind you where crashes are born?
While I won’t use any indicators...I will occasionally use a wave count to make a point and I’m actually a fan of moving averages “to confirm turns”. Because, I do consider them to be “part of” a valuable form of analysis that has proven itself to work over time – consistently.
With that said…
Take a look at this chart. I’ve kept it simple because I don’t want to lose anyone.
Other people collect stamps...I collect bubbles.
Do you have any idea how rare it is for the 50 week MA to turn this hard into the 200? It's every bit as strong, if not stronger than 2000 and/or 2008. Then...add the 50 crossing the 75(Black Arrow) just after the retest of the 50 from underneath? As far as I know that IS the entry sequence into a stock market crash and I don't know of anyone who has studied this topic more than I have. My work(research) on this subject is generational in nature. I have literally spent my life studying the "patterned behavior" of stock market bubbles.
I know by now you’re probably sick & tired of looking at my 2008 reference charts...so this time I used a different time frame for comparison. Although, with each “major” bear market post '29...the story has always been the same no matter what time frame you're using. The only exception is '37. Where when you retested the 50 from underneath you immediately crashed and then bottomed before the 50/75 cross. Also, please note...I said major. '87 doesn't qualify.
From my perspective...
Going forward from the 13th of October low, you want to watch the advance closely as we head into the 35 week MA(3900 area). At this level...the market should start to get dizzy because it’s being choked from several different directions. Since we spiked 100 points below 3600 to fulfill the 400 point H&S, you do need to allow for another 100 point spike on the high end. This is why I put a band(+10/-10) around the 35 week moving average. If it overcomes, THEN we can begin to investigate other possibilities, but frankly...as I’m sitting here...nothing is standing out to me that isn’t what should be occurring within this time frame of a typical bear market decline.
If the textbook is talking...I would like to see this not head into a peak too quickly, a rally that would last a month or so would be ideal.
Although, from experience....just like you're not guaranteed a tomorrow...you're not guaranteed a rally here either. Because my gut has been telling me for days that something is already broken.
Since we talked about the 50 crossing the 75, let’s talk about when the 50 crosses the 200...
"Within two weeks" after this takes place, you’ll look around...and ol’ TCG will simply. be. gone.
Why? Well, as you know...pig’s get slaughtered...and I’m a shark.
Exactly how many weeks are there between February 24th and October 13th?
I go to the hospital for a little outpatient procedure and come back home...to this.
Must have been an interesting day. I'm hearing tales of a pivot? The pivot was the Treasury announcement...this as far as I'm gathering is just follow-thru.
It was this...or meltdown I'd imagine. No worries...everyone is on the right side of the trade and all is well. Go. Back. To. Sleep...
The ^XOI exploded over my nice little doji. Above 1804-5, and I'll actually be asking for coal in my stocking...
EDIT: I've looked over the SPX. If you take out the high from the 18th...that would confirm the C leg of a "at a minimum" 1:1 ABC to 3900. 3500 to 3750, pullback to 3650 and tack on another 250 points.
27th is the only other small window I see in my database. New Moon on the 25th.
Before I left this morning, I took a snapshot of Doc's live feed at 7 AM CST.
I'll work on those charts over the weekend.
If you listen hard enough, you might just hear the standing ovation from Nebraska. Hence my ever repeating comment on inversions, or as Doc puts his finger right on it...misdirection. The most used tool in their arsenal...
As I've mentioned...I normally don't watch bonds or bond yields(or currencies) on a daily basis. I have enough on my plate as it is. I also have an expert sitting several feet to my right who is at my beck and call 24/7 if need be.
Although. With that said...I saw Doc's 10yr chart yesterday and at first glance I was thinking to myself that looks an awful lot like a cup and saucer pattern coming out of that hole in the 10 year, then I started seeing the reverse H&S patterns and I thought I might need to take a closer look.
Now...by closer look I mean the Monthly Chart. For me...that's where it all starts. So I pulled up the Monthly back to the 1980 peak. The first thing I saw was this...
And frankly...it's the last thing I need to see.
Although...I will add the Weekly Chart here for a tad closer look.
So...why am I drawing one line under this particular area of the chart? Charts are incoming.
I believe after viewing those charts...no explanation will be necessary.
No explanation will be necessary in the ^HUI and Silver either...
I'll follow-up with the ^XOI index. Interesting close. "When I take into consideration the months and days from the peak in June to...tomorrow", I'll be watching closely.
For your convenience...
Here is the original chart from the peak.
Here is the ^HUI chart I promised. I'm not going to cover this formation because I've posted it several times. What I am going to mention is that you need to watch "the direction of the lower trendline" once you're in the decline phase. It was right here where many goldbugs got their hat handed to them in 2008.
To negate the pattern you'd need to take out the peak from October 4th.
This is no time to be playing games...
Can you begin to view the world through the eyes of The CoinGuy?
Be very careful here...
In the ^XOI they've powered back through 1750. Now...they have to hold it.
If they can't...Twin Peaks and a 1000+ point decline.
If they can...better stock up on firewood.
No. I don't think they can.
All of the markets that I follow are either dancing at the edge...or close. I made a forecast I think it was before my surgery about the TLT...I still hold the same view and don't see any reason to update. The SLV is sitting on support at 17, if it falls through...it could immediately accelerate. Same with the GLD...160 has now been tested from both sides. It's very close to being ready to make its play. I really want to mention...be careful in the ^HUI...that's not a bottoming formation...it's actually, well...I think for this one I better draw up a chart. it's incoming. Soon.
For your convenience...
The "Twin Peaks" Formation Reference Chart.
Not to pile on...😉,
The last drive through 3750 didn't stick. What now?
I'm sure you're tired of me having to repeat, so I'll just keep it generic.
"Above 3900, Bullish. Below 3600, International Contagion Bearish."
When the Daily Chart starts to appear muddled...I like to pull back to the Weekly.
Perhaps we should take a look at our current Weekly Chart against 2008?
Then maybe we should expand this look back in time to the Daily from...1929? After all...from day one I've said, "this is not a one and done like 2008".
I'll be standing or falling by that statement.
I'd imagine if they're going to step in like they did on the 13th of October, not only does that tell me there is trouble brewing in the background...their interest would also lie in keeping it together for a few more weeks until after November 8th.
Didn't I hear about another SPR release yesterday? Interesting...
November then. Speaking of November...
If you go back ONE year, you'll find the 15th was a pivot...in time(+7/-7).
And...If you go back TEN years? 3 of 3 of 3.
Windows for November? While October was relatively quiet...
For November? I might as well just say this. From the 8th to the 24th...It's just a mess. Although, I do see two strong patterns.
I'm just going to mention them and we can see how everything transpires.
11.15(11.16, flowing into 11.17) - 11.18 - 11.21(possible overflow to 11.24).
11.19 - 11.20
Let's not forget the FOMC meeting and the election. FOMC is on the 1st and 2nd of November and the election(as well as the Full Moon) follows it up on the 8th. New Moon...November 23rd.
And....we're back to 3720-2.
I read your comments this morning Doc...
Around here we have one saying that rules them all.
"Money Talks...Bullshit Walks".
At the end of the day...I'd have to agree.
It ALL boils down to liquidity...
Good morning everyone...
I waited until Monday evening and took a look at my charts. As far as I'm concerned...if we take out the high from Friday(and the futures are currently above the high), I'll consider that a rejection of 3600 and the fulfillment of "Scenario B".
For those who haven't read my posts...I'll be sticking with "Scenario B" as I've outlined in the "Poetry in Motion" chart from September 21st(and probably a few posts around that date as well). In short...I a) will be watching 3900, and b) If the market is rejected at 3900, I will consider that the signal of an incoming crash in the stock market. Since we've already had small ripples in the water from across the pond...perhaps that will be ground zero?
Although...in our current economic/political environment...out of left field can't be ruled out.
After all, everywhere I look...I see crumbling foundations.
Here is a copy of "Poetry in Motion" for your convenience...
As I'm sitting here watching the ^DJI struggling over and over again to regain the swing point at 30k...
I can't get this chart out of my head.
I posted the above chart along with...The Beginning..., The Middle..., and The End... charts that I posted a few weeks back.
These were my favorite charts of the year.
I'd love to see a bearish engulfing candle in the SPX today.
Hey...a fella can dream can't he?
It's a slow day...I'll repost all three of those charts again below.
What's really important to catch here...is the 10x fold nature of the base. You've had to endure me mention 1x - rest period - 1x how many times? Now...just change that to 10x - rest period - 10x...where the rest period is "The Middle". Can you see it? It IS all one formation...