[Liz Warren Has Been Right 5/3/23]

1 hour ago, DrStool said:

If you want to call someone a liar, back it up. 

I believe this remains the earliest document on which Warren attested with her signature to being "American Indian." It dates to 1986.

My mom said she believed my uncle/her brother's physical appearance suggested our family had Native American ancestry. As the ca. 2012 article from which I took the document above (and the link for which I provide below) observes...

Quote

Undocumented claims of Native American ancestry, especially those based on family lore, are not uncommon in this country. 

No. They are not. As I know from my own.

A year before Warren wrote that her race was "American Indian" on the document above, I heard word of a high school classmate who was said to have checked "American Indian" on her college applications. It was done cynically, and instead of attending Berkeley, she attended Columbia. I can't assert cause & effect between the alleged checked box and her educational options.  Back when Warren's representations began, and when my classmate allegedly did what she did, this claim certainly conferred Affirmative Action program advantage.

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Warren first listed herself as a minority in the Association of American Law Schools Directory of Faculty in 1986, the year before she joined the faculty of the University of Pennsylvania Law School. She continued to list herself as a minority until 1995, the year she accepted a tenured position at Harvard Law School.

The former chairman of the American Association of Law Schools, David Bernstein, told the Herald that the group’s directory once served as a tip sheet for administrators. “In the old days before the Internet, you’d pull out the AALS directory and look up people,” he said. “There are schools that, if they were looking for a minority faculty member, would go to that list and might say, ‘I didn’t know Elizabeth Warren was a minority.’” 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-controversy-over-elizabeth-warrens-claimed-native-american-heritage/2012/09/27/d0b7f568-08a5-11e2-a10c-fa5a255a9258_blog.html

Ten years is a long time to have yourself listed as "Minority" in a Directory of Faculty. There is plenty of deniability on Warren's part, and it is misfortunate that the public figure who made greatest political hay about this all is a detestable fraudster from Queens.

But I don't care what deniability she might successfully bring to the table. I followed her story closely, because the basis of her claim seemed as flimsy & familiar as one I might have made at a time when I and others understood it to confer advantage.

So... if I call Warren "a liar," I'm comfortable with the charge. Does any of that detract from notable stuff she did, some alluded to in the article? Not in any way - I remember watching her on CSPAN after the GFC and before she entered politics and being extremely impressed.  I knew who she was before she ran for Senate.

But I'll go further:  I think she was a self-serving cynical fucking liar when she made her claim... which isn't that big a surprise, since she ended up being a politician, and "self-serving cynical fucking liar" is sort of a prerequisite.

For men & women alike.

[What Will Wall Street Do With Europe on Holiday 5/1/23]

2 hours ago, sandy beach said:

Cool! I used to be a beekeeper too! I think we had eight stacked hives in Boulder, Co. I loved those little guys.  

Awesome... bees are fantastic. My wife & I work from home and go out and visit the bees everyday - sometimes several times a day. Our first colony didn't survive our first winter - we were figuring it out & they were ravaged by mites. But we added a second hive & I think we mastered mite-control last spring & summer - both colonies (one Italians, one Russians) survived and are thriving. We harvested after winter and will harvest again in late July, and then let them rebuild their honey stores ahead of winter. We buy 4oz & 8oz mason jars and give most of it away - people love it. For giggles, we are going to enter some jars into county fairs this year - Marin, Alameda, Orange County.

 

[What Will Wall Street Do With Europe on Holiday 5/1/23]

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3. Why did the Powell FOMC decide to massively expand open-market purchases of securities in 2019, a year before COVID?

We have attributed the decision by the Fed to “go big” with providing additional reserves after the December 2018 money market collapse to both Chairman Powell and his predecessor, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. But perhaps we are too hard on the old girl. Lee Adler of Liquidity Trader writes:

“Everybody blames Yellen, but Powell was the one who went big. Yellen shrank the Fed's balance sheet. She started the "normalization" policy. Powell was the one who panicked and reversed course when they had a problem in the money markets because of it. And Chairman Ben Bernanke knew he was setting a trap for anyone who would dare to try to reverse his money printing. He's a financial war criminal.”

Lee continues:

“The villains are Greenspan, Bernanke, and Powell. Yellen is the only one who tried to do the right thing. Yet the rabid right loves to lump her in with the real bad guys. They even make her the primary villain. It's wrong. You're better than that, Chris. You have the ability to sift through the facts to get at the underlying truth. Don't let your bias cloud your vision.”

Point taken.

https://www.theinstitutionalriskanal cyst.com/post/the-false-narrative-on-first-republic-bank

[What Will Wall Street Do With Europe on Holiday 5/1/23]

5 minutes ago, WTF said:

You forgot taxes...

 

[What Will Wall Street Do With Europe on Holiday 5/1/23]

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MASSIVE price enhancement! Existing Airbnb reservations transfer, so you can start earning income on Day1 - ask for details. This Joshua Tree stunner is offered fully furnished for a turnkey investment or vacation spot.

Today, asking was lowered $60K.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Joshua-Tree/61713-Terrace-Dr-92252/home/3834939#marketing-remarks-scroll

 

11/2022 - Listed at $450K

03/2023 - Cut to $399K

Today - Cut to $339K

08/2021 - Transacted for $340K ($40K over $300K list....)

So, seller now is just looking to get out what they paid for two years ago.

09/2003 - Transacted for $75K

Triple that 2003 transaction and you are still starting with a "2"... not a "3"....

Having paid $40K over already excessive list, this seems like a candidate for keys being sent back to the bank.

[What Will Wall Street Do With Europe on Holiday 5/1/23]

45 minutes ago, BurntOnce said:

flowers are blooming, but not a bee in sight. this is mass extinction.

We maintain two hives constituting I’d guess 80,000 bees in our backyard. Best damned honey ever. Tried to catch a wild swarm last week to add a third.

Become a beekeeper. 

[Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23]

The impact on the city’s budget is significant, too: Office-based industries account for nearly three quarters of the city’s gross domestic product. After years of surpluses, the government now forecasts a $780 million deficit in the upcoming two fiscal years — roughly a 6 percent cut in its general fund, according to the mayor’s office.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/30/us/san-francisco-whole-foods-crime-economy.html
 

comments section is interesting with first hand accounts. 

[Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23]

 

https://www.sfchronicle.com/sf/article/office-conversion-housing-17769370.php

https://abc7news.com/downtown-san-francisco-offices-into-housing-sf-buildings/13086443/

[Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23]

1 hour ago, DrStool said:

So to get to $9 million, you start with a market study to see whether rentals or condo sales produce the highest value at the current time. The market study requires market rent surveys, then estimating income and expenses, and deriving a market cap rate. Then you back out the development costs. That's the as is value of the rental scenario.

For condo, you'd have to do a market study of condo prices and absorption rates, then apply a market discount rate to the discounted sellout. Ho ho ho. Then you back out the development costs for the as is value. 

My guess is that once you factor the interior demolition costs, plus the legal costs of kicking out the remaining tenants or accrued losses from keeping them there until their leases expire, this property's value is zero, or even negative. 

There simply will never be enough housing demand at a high enough price to pay the cost of redeveloping millions of square feet of office space. Every million sq. ft. of office space would equate to 1000-1200 apartment units depending on market mix. 

Saw an interview or read something at some point in the past 12 months about an outfit repositioning an SF office building for condos. It was really interesting to learn how completely insanely complicated the project was. I remember elevators being one issue: locationally, you might put them somewhere different in the core for an office floor than a condo floor. Then there was utilities - electrical & plumbing has to be run fresh in ways never previously contemplated. Then there's fire escapes: an office may devote one side of the building for escape, but that doesn't necessarily work for a condo if the resulting escapes are behind someone's locked door.  It was very eye-opening.

[Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23]

1 hour ago, DrStool said:

This is NOT NEWS. I pointedly remarked at that moment that he was lying. 

Once a lying bastard coward, always a lying bastard coward. He has shown himself to be that repeatedly during his tenure. Why anyone ever had any faith in that guy mystifies me. Yet Yellen, who was one of the bravest Fed Chairs in history, the ONLY ONE SINCE VOLCKER to do the right thing, is repeatedly the subject of bitter criticism that has not one iota of truth to it. 

She may be a horseshit Treasury Secretary, but as Fed Chair she did the right thing despite Bernanke's trap, and despite Powell reversing her policy by orders of magnitude. 

Bernanke was a master criminal. Powell is an idiot criminal. 

You've made me think differently about Yellen.

[Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23]

25 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

MOSCA!: Make office space cheap again!

Had to look up which building in downtown SF was now valued at under $10m.

Cheaper than this home across town....

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/2880-Green-St-94123/home/1020891

[Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23]

1 hour ago, fxfox said:

No wonder nobody wants to work downtown anymore with all the clochards, drug addicts and other braindead housing in their tents on the sidewalk.

They gotta sack the mayor and throw her into prison.

I'm not personally familiar with the squalor into which NYC fell in the 1970s & 80s. But the city became notorious for crime  & murder.

On a related note, in 1993 residents voted in the first Republican as Mayor more or less since WWII. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mayors_of_New_York_City

Conceding for argument's sake that all the policy goals pursued in San Francisco are noble & pure, it seems apparent on my aperiodic visits that the execution of that policy has been, to put it generously... "spotty."  In some ways, the situation is not as bad as it is caricatured by rightwing media, which otherwise loves demonizing the place; but it is also far worse than those running the city and their starry-eyed supporters will admit. Quality of life there is down. I've walked my younger son past junkies shooting up on our way back from his doctor's appointment far afield from the Tenderloin or downtown. I've walked down long BART corridors at the Civic Center station lined with junkies, some cooking & others shooting.

For its part, San Francisco established itself as a safe-zone on the eve of an opioid wave.  I've watched youtube interviews of addicts from other parts of the country who moved to SF because they knew they could get their fix and not get hassled - acknowledging that if they shot up in public back home the way they can on Market Street, they'd go straight to prison. As a result....

Quote

There are about 24,500 injection drug users in San Francisco — that’s about 8,500 more people than the nearly 16,000 students enrolled in San Francisco Unified School District’s 15 high schools and illustrates the scope of the problem on the city’s streets.

It’s also an increase of about 2,000 serious drug users since 2012, the last time a study was done.

https://www.beatiteap.com/san-francisco-drug-addicts-outnumber-students/

If you've ever known any addict of anything, you know solutions are not simple. Supply of affordable housing is another component that has rendered urban California less attractive. With recession looming, the situation seems poised to get worse before it gets better.

But I would say much like NYC in the 1970 & 80s: only the foolhardy bet against San Francisco. And if its denizens surprise the nation eventually by voting in a Republican mayor, I'd buy up all the possible real estate I could manage.

[Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23]

2 hours ago, sandy beach said:

“In San Francisco, the office vacancy rate ‘is about 30 percent, or about 35 million square feet that is not currently being used,’ Colin Yasukochi with commercial real estate firm CBRE told NBC News Bay Area. ‘And that’s the highest that we’ve ever seen in San Francisco.’ A former San Francisco WeWork building has seen its property value slashed by about 66 percent, according to Trepp, which tracks CRE data. The building at 25 Taylor Street was once almost entirely leased to WeWork, the formerly highflying co-work startup. The building was valued at $28.1 million in 2014, but was recently appraised at $9.5 million, according to Trepp.”

https://www.loopnet.com/Listing/25-Taylor-St-San-Francisco-CA/24293206/

[Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23]

Bitcoin supply is designed to be capped at 21 million.

This finite-supply imposes a scarcity that affords it great intrinsic value that many don't recognize.

One should be buying bitcoin today because of that.

Someday, Giant Meteor will slam into the planet, destroying human civilization in its entirety.

Such eventuality imposes a finite-supply on equities that afford great intrinsic value that many don't recognize.

One should be buying equities today because of that.

[Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23]

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Welcome to Western Hills Estates! SEE THE VIDEO ABOVE!! easy to show. .. . Introducing YUCCA PARADISE! OFFERED to you to purchase fully furnished as a turnkey short-term rental property. This property is a very successful AirBnB and booked up most of the year! 

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Yucca-Valley/57288-Farrelo-Rd-92284/home/3823821#marketing-remarks-scroll

Price cut today from $695K to... $694K.  LOLOLOL... a thousand bucks to refresh it on the MLS.

Transacted:

04/2018 for $273K

05/2016 for $251K

10/2012 for $215K

09/2007 for $317K  <== "NINJA" era.....

[Perfectly Normal Markets- 4/28/23]

Love these CRE reports.

 

[Baking Soda Is All 4/26/23]

There are many....

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This FULLY TRANSFERRABLE PERMITTED AirBNB/VRBO, Spacious, Absolutely Beautiful, and Fully Remodeled Chateau-Style Home in Upper Sky Harbor is seated on 1.5 acres and surrounded by gorgeous views of the desert and surrounding landscape. 

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Yucca-Valley/9255-Fortuna-Ave-92284/home/3818004#marketing-remarks-scroll

 

Asking today: $749K.

Transacted: 11/2021 for $485K

 

[Baking Soda Is All 4/26/23]

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Have you always wanted to host your own Airbnb? Here is your opportunity to purchase an extraordinary property for your residence while also using the extra home as a cabin for your mother-in-law, or utilize the space to generate income. The cabin has proven to be a consistent income producer as a short-term Airbnb rental due to an active social media account.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Joshua-Tree/7070-Stoney-Crest-Dr-92252/unit-1-2/home/3835174

Asking: $900K

Transacted:

09/2018: $550K

09/2014: $280K

Do you see the trend?

[Baking Soda Is All 4/26/23]

9 minutes ago, fxfox said:

What is this? A 1952 built house in the desert? Who wants to live there? Absolutely sick and insane.

So... you've hit the nail on the head. Having lived out there, I can assure you that from May through October, you probably don't want to live out there. So, it's traditionally been a community of second-homes for snowbirds or spring/fall. There is a Marine Base nearby, and a community college, but that's it apart from tourism associated with Joshua Tree National Park.

Which begs the question: where should that $749K listing actually clear in an environment with real economics and real financing costs? I'm not sure... but the price history is relevant for that question.

Decent article on the mania/bubble that erupted there:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/07/travel/joshua-tree-california-airbnb.html

If I win the lottery, I'm buying this place which I've always coveted:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Joshua-Tree/Uphill-Rd-92252/home/168909881

 

[Baking Soda Is All 4/26/23]

21 minutes ago, DrStool said:

WTFcoin

Crypto is a store of... insanity.

[Baking Soda Is All 4/26/23]

If it's potfarms to the north of me, it's now VRBOs to my beloved desert-south. I think both were symptomatic of loose money & circumstance.  

Let me provide a recent example for the latter. Look at this listing:

Quote

And if all that wasn't enough to convince you, this home is also a Superhost listing with over 50 five-star ratings on Airbnb and a management company already attached.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Yucca-Valley/3353-Sage-Ave-92284/home/3825815

The price history here is instructive.

Asking: $749K

Prior Transactions:

12/2020 = $525K

01/2015 = $274K

08/2003 = $56K

04/2000 = $33.5K

I've seen this sort of thing repeatedly. Consider that seller wants $225K for the privilege of a 28-month holding period. The pitch is that it's a great VRBO... but you better be careful with modeling that forward, since it benefitted from an extended period of work-from-home alternatives (within 2-hour drive of downtown LA/10 million inhabitants) and the GMTFO-COVID cooped-up period when travel-by-car was easier, and travel abroad unavailable.

Meanwhile, anyone want to doubt that the 12/2020 purchase was done with something other than a floating rate, to keep that part of the cost-structure down? And that it has subsequently turned on them? Because I ask myself, "If I had such a successful, professionally-managed cash-flow positive VRBO, why would I be looking to unload it?"

Because they don't: the VRBO empires were built on cheap financing and unusual circumstances, both tied to the pandemic. And it's getting unwound.

I'll post more of these in the days/weeks ahead.

 

[50 Shades of Down 4/25/23]

That song & scene is fantastic. Country Joe lives somewhere 'round these parts. Never encountered him.

[50 Shades of Down 4/25/23]

Didjya ever notice that "KRE" is a lot like "CRE"?

[50 Shades of Down 4/25/23]

"Gimme a K!"

"Kayyyy!!"

"Gimme an R!"

"Arrrrrrr!!"

"Gimme an E!"

"Eeeeee!!"

"What's that spell?!"

"Die Pig, Die!"

"What's that spell?!"

"Die Pig, Die!"

"What's that spell?!"

"Die Pig, Die!"

[Market is Running Late - 4/24/23]

It's also baseball season. My older son is playing JV and my younger one still little league. So, we run around watching youth baseball all the time, which is pretty much the most meaningful thing in the whole-wide world.