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Jimi

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Posts posted by Jimi

  1. 4 hours ago, DrStool said:

    If you are a trader or investor, you know the significance of this day.  

    A day that will live in infamy.  

    Oh, wait. That was a different day. 

    My grandfather was a wealthy man on October 28, 1929. No, he didn't own stock on margin. He owned nearly 100 apartments that he bought with mortgages.  

    Soon after this, he owned only the building that housed his grocery store and the family apartments upstairs.  

    This history of the aftermath of this day is one of relentless financial loss and suffering. 

    A very sad day, indeed. 

    I believe my grandfather was also a wealthy man around the same time - also as the result of residential real estate.  Eventually thereafter, however, according to my father born in 1923, the two would stand together in breadlines. Then, when things got worse, my father and his younger brother were shipped off to a pair of aunts who lived in the country, where he cleaned the chicken coup, but was properly fed.  There's also an apocryphal story of his father piling the family into a car in the night and relocating from Detroit or Cleveland to Pittsburgh, as my grandfather sought to stay one step ahead of his creditors. My father talked of a childhood without sweets, and of watching men in suits dig up and replace cobblestones as part of the era's make-work projects.

    As the eldest son of an immigrant father, he was expected to take over the family business - but he went a different route and they had a falling out. As an academic, his salary along with my mom's was modest, but they saved and they were forever wise & conscientious about their money, a reaction to the deprivation of their youths.  My mom's family was supported through the Depression by farmland in West Virginia to which they would make weekend recourse from Pittsburgh, land that had been in the family since at least the Civil War, when it was a stop on the Underground Railroad, then on paths that Confederate soldiers used to abandon their conscription and make their way across the Ohio River.

    This time last year at 96, he was still jumping on a local bus, coming to my house, and spending the day working in our garden, which he loved, topped off with an occasional gin martini before a family dinner together.  But dementia does its swift work, and now he sits in memory care, with visits from my mom within the same senior facility, but alas, none from me since March because of COVID protocols to protect the elderly.  The experience of his youth echoes financially through me, as preoccupations with long-tail risk and with saving $0.30 of every dollar earned. I am doing what I can to extend that echo to my sons... all with their origin from events on this date.

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  2. 31 minutes ago, sandy beach said:

    Tokyo hits the 48% seroprevalence mark with a low fatality rate. A drop in new cases seems to indicate they have reached herd immunity:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.21.20198796v1.full.pdf+html

     

    M'man - how is this so, what does it mean? Japan has had only 80,000 reported cases against the backdrop of 120m population? I'm not understanding this correctly.

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  3. 7 hours ago, sandy beach said:

    Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg Dies From Cancer Complications

    I’m sure the nomination & confirmation of her successor will proceed with little unnecessary controversy and in a manner that is dignified, unites us and makes all Americans proud, and pays rightful homage to the Founders who bequeathed us this precious Republic.

  4. Quote

    My understanding - or, misunderstanding - is that the lumber mills massively reduced capacity/inventory in spring in anticipation of leaner times and diminished demand. 

    But then... funny story. The US gubmint incurred trillions of dollars in debt, and demand for lumber remained robust.

    So, if you are going to point to lumber price as an inflation indicator, please be prepared to do so again in 6 & 12 months' time....

    That is, when mill-capacity & demand re-equilibriate.

    https://www.constructiondive.com/news/lumber-prices-soar-due-to-shutdowns-higher-demand/583899/

    ...or after a couple of weeks.

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