PullMyFinger

UNH shorts getting squeezed in their nether regions so far this morning. Up more than $16. Ouch.

"Rate cut expectations increase" per crapvision.com

Impressive. Tomorrow's low has been rescheduled for today, so looks like 2812 has to wait for awhile. 2850-55ish and that 1/8 line pretty darn tough to crack as well! ☹️

Here is the 64M ES with last (white) Gann Fan line drawn from 8/25 low. .

Playing around with the ES daily chart today and just thinking out loud here, but 2812 has been a pretty decent support and resistance level going back to last year. Wondering if maybe we touch it say, tomorrow, then have one of those patented vicious rallies for several days, maybe top out around October 10, then back down? On or around October 10 seems to frequently mark important highs or lows in the past. Also, last 2 declines of note have been 232 and 253 points. A decline back down to 2812 would be about 213 points, in the neighborhood of the last 2 declines. If we match either of the last 2 declines before a bounce, if my math is correct we would be looking at about 2794 or 2772 before a bounce. Also on 64M chart this morning we touched the last Gann Fan support line drawn from August 25 low, so not surprised we jumped about 30+ points off that line, at least the first time down to it.

OK, so something has happened. Scratch my last post. 🤡

As I type this, December ES is right about where it was at 1:59 p.m. e.s.t., despite the approximate 25 point swing from top to bottom after the announcement. Was it Jickiss that used to say "nothing has happened yet"? 😕

Those who can, trade. Those who can't, like me, try Dad jokes and "comedy". 😜 16M Dec ES--not all that far earlier this a.m. from filling last night's gap. But now what? Go down and try for a double bottom, up and bump head around 3005-3008? Both? Neither? 🤔 I guess that's why I'm the King of the Sofa and not King of the Traders.

Sofa, said a bit quickly. As in, "I find this market Sofa King unbelievable at times."

But that upsloping green Gann Fan line around 2920 that the market has been crawling up since late yesterday afternoon has to break decisively first, or I have my doubts we are done to the upside just yet. OK, now I'm talking to myself. Sounded better in my head than it looks on a chart. 😊

Maybe it's just about another return to the scene of the crime at the 8/8 line around 2930-ish on ES? Occam's Razor (at least a guy can hope, though it's rarely that easy or simple).

Well, their Cheddar Bay biscuits are quite tasty. 🙂

Holy cow.

Great work today. Really appreciate your updates. I have no reason to doubt your projection, but I chickened out and sold my ES longs at 2882 (from 2857). The 2851 line I mentioned on the 8 minute chart earlier held pretty well to downside this morning, and Gann fan downtrend line didn't hold, but the confluence of fan lines on 32 minute chart spooked me into selling. The market is now free to race up to 2900 without me. If the green line holds on downside and we go up and clear 2884, we might be off to the races again, but I think I will sit this out and mow the lawn instead. 😊

Another look--60 minute ES from Elliott Wave perspective. The blue hash mark line is about 2900. Most everything looks primed for 5th wave down soon, but that red PTI number at 31 gives me some pause. Frequently if it is less than 35 the result is a failed 5th wave or a double bottom.