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SiP

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Everything posted by SiP

  1. #Fed unveils new bailout program. Will inject up to $2.3tn in loans. To buy municipal, junk bonds as part of expansive programs. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/federal-reserve-unveils-details-of-its-much-anticipated-main-street-lending-program.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&par=sharebar
  2. Still place to room for bears. 2900 is key
  3. Australia 10Y bonds higher in yields and AUD stronger as RBA the first central bank to announce readiness to trim liquidity injections as markets stabilize.
  4. Japan's Abe unveils 'massive' coronavirus stimulus worth 20% of GDP https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-stimulus/japans-abe-unveils-massive-coronavirus-stimulus-worth-20-of-gdp-idUSKBN21O0LC on top of 240% debt to GDP! So CBs BC as a % gdp Federal Reserve 27% 🇺🇸 -BoE 28% 🇬🇧 -ECB 44% 🇪🇺 -BoJ 105% 🇯🇵 Via #MorganStanley
  5. Its not bold. its just reversed Head and shoulds patterns
  6. If gold close above 1700 then I see 1900 at least
  7. In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies Weighing an idea that might once have been relegated to science fiction, Italy once again finds itself in the unfortunate vanguard of Western democracies grappling with the coronavirus https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-antibodies.html#click=https://t.co/W1wyC38NSY.
  8. Good read A corporate debt reckoning is coming. https://medium.com/@13DResearch/a-corporate-debt-reckoning-is-coming-66aaf908d9b2
  9. A lot of people compare current market sell-off to GFC, but I think there is fundamental difference here. GFC was about constant betting (and failing) on bottoms in economic activity. This time we know exactly where will be the bottom - it will be lockdowns lift-off. So obviously it's still betting, we don't know for sure when it happens, but a different one. Medical rather than economical, and we all know the exact trigger.
  10. Market is short usd Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Mar31 & were released Friday April 3
  11. WTI is interesting Log | channel and Linear | previous lows
  12. If that is true, then buy physical assets which are easy to sell like gold coins. In the end this paper money would be wipe out, even if gold would drop during begining of this crisis becasue of "sell everything". Then, all "paper ETFs" would be gone and gold or silver could rise like 10 to 100 times. Who knows. But this is the case if you believe in total reset. I heard this story too many times to believe. I still think they will handle that, maybe from lower levels. Their ammo is unlimited. For me, Japan is the front runner. They have like 240 % debt to gdp ratio and still manage to ke
  13. So you prefer 1929 style. Copy paste scenario is here
  14. During GFC FED and UST waited a lot. same for CBs from all around the world. This time they announced QE almost in the same month as lockdown / selloff. Same for program for corpo/sme and liquidity. So this time the response in v.quick, not like in 2008 or 2009, one year after the peak at sp500. So this is different. They also did swap deal with EM CBs already. They actually already used all tools at their disposal and triple the force (enlarge QE many times vs past QEs or cut rates to zero). So the LOW could be in because of that. The main question that
  15. some GOOD charts for bulls Indications of panic selling could signal a low, according to SunTrust
  16. Much of the equity market deleveraging appears to be over. Portfolio leverage as a multiple of assets in risk parity funds, estimated.
  17. Italy demands solidarity from Germany, or EU 'will cease to exist' European Union in 'mortal danger' because of divisions over virus crisis, says former Italian premier https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/31/italy-demands-solidarity-germany-coronavirus-crisis-rifts-deepen/
  18. Markets for now forget about europe. There is a new crisis brewing. There are already manifestation and eg italians bought headlines in german newspaper. This huge debt in Europe is unsustainable and there is a chance for euro breakup, again.
  19. Brace for the ‘deepest recession on record,’ says BofA anal cysts, as jobless claims surge to 6.6 million BofA sees between 16 and 20 million job losses, which could send the unemployment rate, which stands at 3.5% as of February’s report, surging within a few months to 15.6%, which would by far outstrip the unemployment rate during the 2007-09 recession. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/brace-for-the-deepest-recession-on-record-says-bofa-anal cysts-as-jobless-claims-surge-to-66-million-2020-04-02?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
  20. 10 million people in two weeks unemployed in US.
  21. you have to read that. full text. til the end about ZH https://newrepublic.com/article/156788/zero-hedge-russian-trojan-horse
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