Dovish CBs around the world, excluding Boj are a bullish sign. This is bullish for gold which loves lower NOT higher interests rates.
Based on this pace/tempo we should reach 5800 by end of 2024 on SPX. Gold could rally towards 2500. Bitcoin, if goes thru 70k, could easily reach 100k usd.
"Federal tax withholding–the amount of income and payroll taxes withheld from workers’ paychecks and remitted daily to the U.S. Treasury Department–rebounded in February after a one-month dip (see the chart below). Specifically, we estimate that withholding grew by 6.0 percent in February (compared to the amount from February 2023), in line with the amount recorded from May to December 2023, when it grew by between 5 percent and 7 percent each month (again, comparing the amounts of withholding to those from the same month in the prior year). Growth temporarily declined to 2.3 percent growth in January 2024; withholding in January is hard to interpret because it is affected by year-end bonuses and two holidays. It appears that the withholding dip in January was temporary. Those growth figures all adjust the amount of withholding to standardize the makeup of business days across months (which can affect the reported amounts significantly) and to remove the estimated effects of tax law changes (with no adjustments currently needed). Withholding moves with economywide wages and salaries (again, see the chart below). Thus, the February withholding data suggest that overall wages are continuing to grow at a significant pace"
For the month, Bitcoin surged $18,972 (45%), surpassing October 2021’s previous monthly record gain ($17,540). Nvidia surged 29%, Meta 29%, Lattice Semiconductor 26%, Coherent Corp 25%, and Applied Materials 23%. The Semiconductors (SOX) returned 11.1%. The Nasdaq Composite returned 6.2% for the month, and it wasn’t only tech driving the gains. The Nasdaq Transports returned 7.7%, Nasdaq Industrials 7.2%, Nasdaq Insurance 6.6%, and the Nasdaq Financials 5.9%. There were 49 stocks in the Nasdaq Composite that at least doubled in price during the month. And indicative of the highly speculative market environment, the Goldman Sachs Most Short Index surged 16.6% for the month. The major indices all posted big months. The Nasdaq100’s (NDX) 5.4% slightly bettered the S&P500’s 5.3% return. The broader market outperformed. The S&P400 Midcaps’s 5.9% somewhat led the small cap Russell 2000’s 5.7% return. The “average stock” Value Line Arithmetic Index returned 4.0% during February. While uneven, global equities generally posted solid gains. Japan’s Nikkei 225 returned 8.0%, posting a record high for the first time since the bursting of their Bubble 34 years ago. Germany’s DAX returned 4.6%, France’s CAC40 3.5%, and Italy’s MIB 6.0%. An abrupt rally saw China’s CSI300 recover 9.4% during the month. While certainly not as captivating as crypto and equities melt-ups, Credit market developments were no less spectacular. Following record January issuance of $189 billion, early-month forecasts projected February would approach the monthly record set just last year ($150bn). As it turned out, February’s issuance of $198 billion crushed the previous record by almost a third. At about $400 billion in two months, 2024 is off to nothing short of a rip-roaring historic start. March 1 – Bloomberg (Gowri Gurumurthy): “The broad rally in risk assets has propelled CCCs, the riskiest part of the junk bond market, to the top as the best performing asset class in February. Returns for the month were 1.7% after climbing for six consecutive sessions.” With stunning gains and record equities prices, record corporate issuance, and multiyear lows in corporate spreads and CDS prices, there is ample support for the thesis that market financial conditions have turned the loosest since the mortgage finance Bubble period
The deepening departure in equity markets after disappointing US inflation data spares no one. The DAX, after falling by more than 1%, was at its lowest level since 1 February. We should soon find out whether the level of 17,000 points should be forgotten for a long time to come, or whether today we are only dealing with an incidental bucket of cold water poured over the hot heads of the bulls. Nothing much is happening yet up to the level of the last low of 17 January.
Not Done With Us Yet 3/8/24
in The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Posted
RRP