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SiP

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Everything posted by SiP

  1. #VIX First spike - october 2008 Second spike - november 2008 Third spike - december 2008 We visited 2008 Its not the LOW. It should be tested.
  2. Polish government closed all pubs, restaurants. only remote deliveries. All malls (commercial galleries) - closed. MAx gathering for 50 people
  3. Polish government closed borders. all trains, air travel is suspended starting this sunday. Polish Prime Minister live in polish tv
  4. Here are some good links about COVId19 https://www.thelancet.com/ https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus https://edhub.ama-assn.org/jn-learning/pages/coronavirus-alert Links to maps http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/maps-visuals
  5. Polish blue chip index WIG20 drop to 2009 montly low. (of course there is needle but Im talking about close of month candles) I bought some stocks today at close. just for 15% of cash.
  6. Since yesterday I see stress in EM FX, including PLN. Now you talking. Polish national bank said that there will be cash for everyone. People went to banks for cash. seriously.
  7. Tomorrow is ECB day Maybe they will announce big QE. Scheduled meeting. Im looking for for big move. The question is - which side, up or down. Dunno. ECB day should strongly move the market.
  8. Dear Fx FOX. Of course I'm biased since I live in EM but believe me. If there is panic, there a huge moves in PLN and HUF. They are not pegged. There is no ERM2 corridor, Poland will not change PLN to EUR. Do you see the spikes in the past? HUGE move in 2008 (middle of screen in XXI) or even than smaller one during 2012 (euro crises). Now we are flat. Its amazing. Stocks are sold off, bonds are bought but I dont see massive panic in FX. Of course there was move in EURUSD, there was some one bigger move in USDJPY, but for the last couple days, after 20% selloff I would love to see ma
  9. Sure, everyone knows that. Closing longs in funding currency. Most of them were located in bonds and stocks Im talking about something different. Im talking about big moves in EM FX. I dont see them. Take a look at USDPLN USDHUF. Some build up in USDMXN USDZAR but nothing amazing and panic.
  10. On forex side, I dont see any dislocations. Thats strange. Just slow selloffs and derisking. No big JPY moves etc
  11. YEap, 2011 or something. Normally those lines are good. I would probably take some longs around those levels if we fast drop from here.
  12. May I recommend a quick dive to 2640 and test of 200 SMA? or 2670, 200 EMA on weekly SPX? That would be nice.
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