Jump to content

SiP

Members
  • Content Count

    228
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

SiP last won the day on April 5

SiP had the most liked content!

Community Reputation

34 Excellent

About SiP

  • Rank
    Stock Proctology Intern
  1. Still place to room for bears. 2900 is key
  2. Australia 10Y bonds higher in yields and AUD stronger as RBA the first central bank to announce readiness to trim liquidity injections as markets stabilize.
  3. Japan's Abe unveils 'massive' coronavirus stimulus worth 20% of GDP https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-japan-stimulus/japans-abe-unveils-massive-coronavirus-stimulus-worth-20-of-gdp-idUSKBN21O0LC on top of 240% debt to GDP! So CBs BC as a % gdp Federal Reserve 27% πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ -BoE 28% πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§ -ECB 44% πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί -BoJ 105% πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅ Via #MorganStanley
  4. Its not bold. its just reversed Head and shoulds patterns
  5. If gold close above 1700 then I see 1900 at least
  6. In Italy, Going Back to Work May Depend on Having the Right Antibodies Weighing an idea that might once have been relegated to science fiction, Italy once again finds itself in the unfortunate vanguard of Western democracies grappling with the coronavirus https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/world/europe/italy-coronavirus-antibodies.html#click=https://t.co/W1wyC38NSY.
  7. Good read A corporate debt reckoning is coming. https://medium.com/@13DResearch/a-corporate-debt-reckoning-is-coming-66aaf908d9b2
  8. A lot of people compare current market sell-off to GFC, but I think there is fundamental difference here. GFC was about constant betting (and failing) on bottoms in economic activity. This time we know exactly where will be the bottom - it will be lockdowns lift-off. So obviously it's still betting, we don't know for sure when it happens, but a different one. Medical rather than economical, and we all know the exact trigger.
  9. Market is short usd Data in this report cover up to Tuesday Mar31 & were released Friday April 3
  10. WTI is interesting Log | channel and Linear | previous lows
  11. If that is true, then buy physical assets which are easy to sell like gold coins. In the end this paper money would be wipe out, even if gold would drop during begining of this crisis becasue of "sell everything". Then, all "paper ETFs" would be gone and gold or silver could rise like 10 to 100 times. Who knows. But this is the case if you believe in total reset. I heard this story too many times to believe. I still think they will handle that, maybe from lower levels. Their ammo is unlimited. For me, Japan is the front runner. They have like 240 % debt to gdp ratio and still manage to keep their economy afloat. So what will happen to Japan will happen to eveyone in the end. US has low debt to GDP levels when compared to Japan. Actually Im more affraid about Italy and other south countries. After changes to policies ECB has room to print till 2023. There was a problem with CB capital (hit limit on germna debt), but they change the limit last month. So they could print an buy italian debt till 2023. At the moment since 17 march I have 15% of my portfolio in stocks. Already have 40% increase. I invested in hard assets stocks like gold miners, telecoms. Im thinking about going long with 50% of my retirement money. Its like 2009. The questions is - whether its too early since GFC lasted 1,5 year. But that was different story. FED acted after 1 year. This time they did it very quickly.
  12. During GFC FED and UST waited a lot. same for CBs from all around the world. This time they announced QE almost in the same month as lockdown / selloff. Same for program for corpo/sme and liquidity. So this time the response in v.quick, not like in 2008 or 2009, one year after the peak at sp500. So this is different. They also did swap deal with EM CBs already. They actually already used all tools at their disposal and triple the force (enlarge QE many times vs past QEs or cut rates to zero). So the LOW could be in because of that. The main question that we all should be asking is: 1. Is this a hurricane event? like in Miami - close for 10 days (here 1 month) and everything back to normal) 2. IS this something bigger (like "national" katrina hurricane. In that case after two years still local GDP didnt recover 100%) The second question is of course about dollar squeeze. King dollar. Great article this week from Noland, must read. http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2020/04/weekly-commentary-king-of-sovereign.html The third question is: what about china. Will they handle this crisis, again? Supply chains are breaking, they are losing new orders. I understand that FxFOX is saying that the LOW is already IN. Me - I dont think so, we should test the low. I think the economic data will get worse. This will last at least till june 2020.
  13. some GOOD charts for bulls Indications of panic selling could signal a low, according to SunTrust
×
×
  • Create New...