SiP

my bro from Chicago is telling me that there gonna be a civil war in US he said his neighbours are loaded with ammo and guns there gonna be some blue flu on 4 of july or something. I never heard him so scared. he said he is thinking about moving to Canada.

I close short position with some minor loss.

TT

I went short late friday.

is this a joke? Coronavirus: White House plans to disband virus task force https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52553829

This is a reason for breakup of EU/EMU. South is again terribly hit, north again is doing ok. This really could kill euro in the long run. North and Germany have to agree to common budget but I would put on table common tax and get rid of this tax cheats which happens in Ireland or Holland.

Doc, I have to go now but if you need help in Poland do let me know. I admire your work and your way of life. In priv I could send you my local mobile number. Just remember that when you cross border right now you have to be quarantined for 14 days in one place. You cant move outside. There is mobile app which you have to install and make selfie (really!) every 4 hours to confirm you are at this place. Here is a link to google play for that app in polish (called Kwarantanna domowa which means House Quarantine) https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=pl.nask.droid.kwarantannadomowa&hl=pl I would wait. They just announced some opening. Probably end of may is ok.

Poland was the 4th (nominal) hardest hit country during WWII. ZSRR - 26 mln peope China - 15-20 mln people Germany - 6,9-7,4 mln people Poland - 5,9-6 mln people In terms of % of total population it was the 1st Poland regularly had problems because it is in the centre of Europe, between Germany Austria and Russia. Milions were killed during last 200 years and we lost our independance for 123 years. We had three Polish partitions - Poland was split to Prusia, austria russia etc We still have a lot of problems. Now the biggest is populism. We are ruled by Kaczyński - same great guy as Orban. We become colony of US and US is trying even today to split EU thanks to our populism. Even today microsoft announced 1 bln usd investement in cloud in poland by builing so called region (local data center) https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/microsoft-to-invest-1bln-in-poland-as-new-figures-show-us-pumped-216-billion-in-to-the-country-last-year-alone-12468 Now we are getting more and more divided as Poles. Our president died in 2010 (Kaczyński twin brother) in Smoleńsk in plane crash. 50% of Poles, due to fakenews, believed he was killed by Russia by bomb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smolensk_air_disaster Now we have a problem with the presidential election. It suppose to be handled by regular mail at 10th of may, due to covid19. But the government could be resolved. We are having a major political crisis right now. I was watching Parliament TV for the half of day.

Its not true right now. Since you live in Europe than you know that Europe is great in heavy industries like car engines, cars, planes, factories and in general B2B (business to business) services. Heavy industries now sucks ass. Really. Europe is missing so called Digital Single Market. there are no unicors. NADA, ZIP. You could say maybe German SAP, maybe one. If there was good digital player then it was bought by US like Skype from estonia was bought by microsoft. Take a look at electronics in BMW - is just pure crap. US on the other side has the scale and software. Since most of the world right now work remotely using teams (microsoft), office 365 or Google G suit then this is why those big tech are proliferating. same as Netflix. They closed cinemas and entertainment is moving to VOD (video on demand). In Poland several films which were suppose to be put in cinemas were streamed in polish VOD apps. its a revolution. Now there is a war. Just this week biggest cinema operators went against Uiversal because they want to change the model - no exclusive rights for cinemas. in the same dates you would stream film in VOD https://www.thrillist.com/entertainment/nation/amc-theaters-ban-universal-movies-trolls-box-office COVID-19 just turbo charge the big tech trend and US is the biggest beneficiary of that. Thats a fact. Pure fact and you dont need any FED liquidity to pump up this stocks. You have to be invested in big tech since they are wining. really. The question is - when they become to big and they will be split like AT&T. the talk is ongoing, but the question is - how to split them. they are not railways, you cant separate lines. Look at Amazon -> 70+ bln USD rev in Q1 2020, with AWS cloud (10bln USD). they had earnings -> 3 bln USD but 80% of that came from cloud. rest of amazon is ....generating loss! its cloud, gaming, office365 which is scaling. not shitty eCommerce since you need to hire 100k people. So big tech is moving market. They have sound and good fundamentals. of course the question is PE/valuation. But the trend is real.

Its not whole market that is moving up, its mainly big TECH like MSFT which now captured 25% of SP500 and most market cap of this market. Ive just read that most stocks hit 52 week low! Iv seen a chart which presents MSFT vs FTSE100 market cap. One MSFT is the same size as british FTSE 100 !!!! So if you talk about market as a MSFT then its moving up. when you look and many other markets including EM then is movind down or sideways for the last month. Just take a look at EMFX USDMXN, USDTRY (new record today!), USDZAR and many more. I dont believe that 4k SP500 is possible. its out of question for me. I dont see any also option for crash to 1500. Im seeing more chances for big broad sideway phase. Hovewer close of monthly candle above 2933 (9 EMA) will be bullish and would point out to just take leveraged longs on sp500. Im still thinking what to do in Europe. european stocks are the most undervalued to US stocks since 1980!!! Its moving just sideways. EDIT: Ive seen a chart which presents CB injections vs % of GDP. US FED did like 10 times more than ECB or BOJ. Maybe that the reason why europe or asia is not moving up.

Euro Stoxx 50 futures - cliffhanger - below trend channel already

v important level at Dax now - lower band (4H,close) + 55 EMA If broken then 10k where 38,2 fibo is.

ES lower band of channel. NOW, this is important level.

Treasury’s $4 Trillion Funding Task Signals Record Auction Slate The majority of dealers also expect the government to signal larger sales are ahead for notes of all other maturities, as well as floating-rate and inflation-linked securities The Fed has trimmed its Treasuries buying to $8 billion a day, from a peak of around $75 billion as calm has returned to the market. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-03/treasury-s-4-trillion-funding-task-signals-record-auction-slate?sref=eo0IIyEe

Great long read from Bill Gates: https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemic-Innovation