9/37/22.....the adlerian calendar
Adlerian calendar is calculated by the Market’s movement around a galactic body known as the Federal Reserve. Months are defined by 6 week gestation periods whereby the new calendar month begins and ends with a defining moment where one individual known as the Chairman defines the financial existence for all others.
The Adlerian calendar was derived from the Philadelphian derivative where one individual interprets the scripture of the Chairman and the actions of the Chairman’s committee. The process of this one select interpreter is also known as Gastrointestinal Epithelium where he guides and protects his followers from the toxic or otherwise harmful luminal contents of this galactic body.
its straightforward - its rail connection and hub. Most of the military help comes via rail to Ukraine. They attacked rail connection couple times but in the past it was more precise.
nevertheless, Russians are a bunch of idiots. so for me its normal. its like two stupid dogs movie at cartoon network or something like that. Like I said I think there won't be any escalation.
Elon pays $44 billion for chatter
Its only worth about 8. Crazy days indeed.
lnflation still 8%....ten year treasury should be 11%
Only 700 basis points above where it currently trades.
There is still too much craziness in the system.
The numbers still do not add up correctly.
Lets face stark reality.
The FED was the greatest enabler of ponzi schemes and frauds in history.
from a 2014 article:
„Companies have been allowed to repurchase their shares on the open market with virtually no regulatory limits since 1982, when the SEC instituted Rule 10b-18 of the Securities Exchange Act. Under the rule, a corporation’s board of directors can authorize senior executives to repurchase up to a certain dollar amount of stock over a specified or open-ended period of time, and the company must publicly announce the buyback program. After that, management can buy a large number of the company’s shares on any given business day without fear that the SEC will charge it with stock-price manipulation—provided, among other things, that the amount does not exceed a “safe harbor” of 25% of the previous four weeks’ average daily trading volume. The SEC requires companies to report total quarterly repurchases but not daily ones, meaning that it cannot determine whether a company has breached the 25% limit without a special investigation.
Despite the escalation in buybacks over the past three decades, the SEC has only rarely launched proceedings against a company for using them to manipulate its stock price. And even within the 25% limit, companies can still make huge purchases: Exxon Mobil, by far the biggest stock repurchaser from 2003 to 2012, can buy back about $300 million worth of shares a day, and Apple up to $1.5 billion a day. In essence, Rule 10b-18 legalized stock market manipulation through open-market repurchases.“
Basically it is all the outcome of the Reagan era „de-regulation“ politics or better call it „mantra“. Most of it is still in place and was never rolled back.
My boys have played baseball since they were 5 years old. Wasn't my agenda - I never played. Our older son was swinging a bat at 3 years old and seemed intent on playing, so we signed him up for little league: he had preposterous good fortune in early coaching & has played ever since. Younger son followed his older brother into little league. Older son plays high school ball now, and younger likely will follow next year. I have completely fallen in love with baseball because of them. I've watched more baseball on TV in the last month than I did in my first 40 years on the planet.
Older son is playing "Fallball" for the first time this year - we've always suspended baseball in August to limit arm-strain from year-round playing, but HS baseball has its different set of obligations, and the boys didn't play "travelball" through summer. At a game a few weeks ago, a father brought a radar gun to measure his kid's pitch-speed - the kid is no pitching prodigy, and it is the JV squad, but he's the hardest throwing pitcher on the team. He maxed out at 67mph on the pitches recorded. Maybe tops out at 70mph.... Maybe.
I have seen.... I dunno... between little league & travelball with two sons... 80 games pitched by 12 year olds. And I've seen a 67mph measured pitch.
The idea that Bryce Harper was gunning down other 12 year olds with a 77mph fastball is... legend.
At his first at-bat tonight, they said Harper took only his 3rd pitch looking of the postseason.
That, too, is legend.
It doesn't imply anything. And the Fed's sham rate "hikes" are irrelevant. The bill rates are a meter of market tightness. The Fed just treads water trying to keep up. It's even further behind the market now than it was before.
Surge in Withholding Tax Collections in October Indicates Faster Jobs Growth
saw your post yesterday
ETFs do not see any cash inflow. The Authorized Participants simply provide the underlying securities to the ETF in exchange for shares they create. Normally the APs are creating shares when there is arbitrage between underlying and ETF share price. I explain ETFs and how they operate in the latest Spaces with Tom at Palisade Radio.
When I watched your video on the Canopy hoist, it reminded of a gentlemen from Alliance, NE. Here...the ground pounders are going 'into' the ground with more and more frequency.
Nebraska Stories | Greenhouse in the Snow
fxfox...I agree...and frankly any other method...well, you have to start taking time into consideration. Is it...worth the time? I don't think so. Unless...as you mentioned, you're an insider, but there are risks with that as well. For myself...I think I just prefer to be an outsider - in all respects.
To that...I would only add. Those odds(and percentages, which are huge!) get even better if you learn the lesson from Jesse Livermore instead of having to learn it for yourself. It's the large trends...where the most money is made(at the least cost to your health).
I've always mentioned I retired in '95 at 27. Before...the ramp. Coming out of the recession in '91 I hit each turn with exacting precision. then I got long the Nasdaq and walked away at 4k(please remember...I don't do bubbles, I've explained why.).
To this day....the 12 to 18 month timeframe...I usually like to keep as a minimum. Not to mention...even if I see plenty more on the table...I always leave 10-20% for everyone else.
As you know...I like to repeat. So, I'll say it again...always target the big chunk in the middle. There never is any need to rush...or be the first one there.
The braggart types who talk that nonsense end up blowing up their accounts. At least that is my experience. Being a johnny come lately...is a bonus from my viewpoint. Technically speaking. I personally like to see the first wave complete and the second wave retracement on light volume...as that starts to get long in the tooth....that's where I 'prefer' to take my shot.
I'm going to expand a bit here. In the mood to type I suppose....
Speaking of blowing up accounts...Your day isn't over if/when that happens to you...it's just beginning. I personally think THAT is what opens the door to becoming an excellent trader. The only students that listened...were those who had broken an account or two. The rest...arrogance grew...until they faded away. Some wealthy. a few...very wealthy. Some ended up as dishwashers, cooks...used car salesman. The only difference. One gave up at the break...one picked themselves up by the bootstraps...and trodded on. They didn't give up.
I don't care how bleak it looks. One thing about the market. There's another train coming along...whoops, you just missed it. No worries...there'll be another in a few...whoops...you just missed another one.
You get the idea...
A timely word(or chart) can turn the story around in the blink of an eye.
Never give up is the moral of the story. Don't be afraid to speak up if you blow something up either. Most guys...well, from viewing posts for the better part of...hell, I don't know how many years. I've been around the internet since the beginning. At any rate. I don't see many posters who confess losses.
What I don't think they realize...if they had any interest in helping someone else...it would be right there at the moment of failure where they could pass along pearls(of wisdom) to everyone around them.
By helping others...you help yourself.
Today, we are back in Willits, which loves itself some pot farms!!
Great description with my emphasis in underling:
"Beautiful 33.4 Acres which is 20 min from town and has 1/4 mile of dirt rd to auto gate. Includes 1 bed 1 bath house w/legal septic, well water with 20,000 gl of storage, Brooktrails water with filtration system, PG&E on prop at house, shop and greenhouses. There is a permitted 1,000 square foot shop with 220 amp power. Building is split in half to utilize work flow. There are 4 greenhouses totaling 4400 square feet with blackout covers, exhaust fans and power and 2 sets of Golden Arms. There is outdoor garden area with 55 pots at 300 gallon each. There is a storage container, garden tool shed, RV septic and power connection, views to the southwest with plenty of sun, all turnkey and ready to go inside and out."
Photos 1-5 reveal... nothing.
6 & 7... greenhouses. Suggestive....
Photo #8 shows some relatively heavy-duty domestic electrical infrastructure. I mean... why would one need a wall of Nanolux hardware? I mean, "What is Nanolux hardware...?"
PROFESSIONAL GROW LIGHTS
Oh... that's presumably the 220 amp and split work-flow deal.
Moving on, 4 greenhouses with blackout covers and 2 sets of Golden Arms?
"'Golden Arms'? What's that about?"
Well, you can control indoor light/dark cycles with your Nanolux lighting system, and thereby "trick" pot plants year-round that it is "spring" or "fall" - and thereby squeeze out more than one harvest cycle than the uncooperative sun provides. I assume that a Golden Arm with blackout covers allows you to play the same trick with an outdoor greenhouse. Tutorial video below.
Last photo shows the now-familiar Stonedhenge "outdoor garden area with 55 pots at 300 gallon each."
Wow: this place looks set up for meaningful & varied production.
It's "Bonus Friday"!!
I mentioned above I felt like I'd seen properties that looked like pot grower's places... and that they'd make sense now in retrospect?
This place up in Willits, maybe about 2.5 hours north of the Bay Area, is one of those "retrospective" places....
If you look at the first seven pictures of this... 1bd/1ba... ... organic geodesic yurt hybrid (???)... it silently screams, "Professional Stoner." It's the sort of place where a guest wanders in circles because his buddy living there mischievously says, "Where's the bong? Oh... I left it in the corner..." and then giggles himself into hysterics while staring up at the soft, puffy ceiling.
Anyway... photo 20 reveals the tell-tale signs of water-tanks & PVC piping.
"But where is the greenhouse? Or the loops & plastic covering?" Those were the only "tells" I knew of pot farming.
Now that I've come to believe that "Stoned-henge Rounds" are an outdoor propagation variant, it all comes together in photos 24 & 25. This looks like a pot farm that was abandoned before this season, given the growth of non-psychoactive weeds in those rounds.
Meanwhile, if you check out the "Price Activity" in the listing, you'll note that this property listed as first "Active" in... October 2021... which would have been right after last year's harvest.
Interesting comp: ~$300K will currently buy ~160 acres in remote NorCal.
Not exactly the farming I'm used to here in the midwest Jimi...but I do appreciate the stories.
As I've mentioned...I'm a fifth generation Nebraskan.
Back in the 1960's....half of our family up and left Nebraska completely. They now reside all over California.
I've flown out there many times. Even temporarily worked for one relative for a six month stint to help him keep his doors open. My relatives(and their friends) have always been very generous(and kind) people.
When I travel out there...it's hard to leave.
I am not a trader, so have little on that topic to contribute, but I am very glad to provide something - anything! - here for others, given the generosity of those here who have enriched my market understanding for years.
Okay, so I realized two things. First, last night I was wondering why I was encountering these listings all of sudden. And then it struck me and I felt very stupid for having been so slow: "Of course - it's harvest season! Right now!"
These properties are "all of a sudden" being listed because their associated final harvest has been secured and it is time to move on.
For today's episode, I move southeast of the Bay Area in the region affectionately known as, "the Road to Kirkwood."
Kirkwood is a ski resort - I believe the highest in local elevation, and therefore with some of the region's most reliable snow - frequented by Bay Arians of a certain stripe. It is not among the ritzy "Tahoe resorts" per se, because it isn't, in fact, on the lake; nor does one have to drive over the infamous Donner Pass to reach it. Kirkwood possesses precious little in the way of "après ski" but it has some exceptionally challenging runs: once on a lift there, a ski patrol dude told me that it is the preferred resort for all the seasonal workers looking to ski on their day off. It is a relatively unassuming but large & varied resort, and it is where the wife & I have primarily taken our beloved spawn to learn to ski.
Accordingly, I have kept an eye out for properties "on the Road to Kirkwood" that would serve the role of ski cabin, although now more out of curiosity than intention, since we will be empty nesters in due time, and the period for "amortizing" such a purchase with weekend ski trips with our sons has passed.
Anyway, here is a listing from yesterday, on one of the Roads to Kirkwood:
This one struck me, because of three things. First, the description indicates, "private property with rolling southern facing hills": that suggests "growers." Second, the description also indicates, "the last tenant left the a mess": setting aside the grammatical misuse there of duplicative articles, I once had occasion as a young, broke man to rent a home from someone who had grown pot previously in it (only learned this after the fact... interesting story, but I digress). They, too, had left a mess.
Hmm... stoners are messy.
Third, photo 8 shows the usual telltale signs: a large plastic structure for holding well water and what looks like the remnants of a white plastic cover. Suggestive but not determinative. Then, photo 11 shows haphazard PVC piping... which is very suggestive.
Then, there are photos 13 & 14.
WTF are those? It looks like some sort of agrarian Stonehenge tribute laid out in a forest clearing. Maybe the messy renters were practicing Druids? And they mounted these round structures for religious purposes? Maybe Druids are simply messy because... it's part of their forest-clearing agrarian Stonehenge rituals?
So, I did some googling, and what do you know!? I don't think they were Druids! The photo below from here suggests the messy renters were very likely growers probably using a variant of a raised-soil trellis system in the forest clearing, where available soil was suboptimal.
I never knew about this burlap-rounds growing approach until I looked at this listing on the Road to Kirkwood. Pretty interesting! I'm persuaded it was a pot farm.
This revelation makes me realize that a handful of properties I've reviewed in recent weeks and thought, "Hmmm.... that looks like a pot grower's place, but the grow-area doesn't make any sense to me," will probably make sense now in retrospect now that I understand that this is a distinctive trend....
Moral hazard never dies.
But isn‘t it moral hazard too when 93% of those cute Portugese finance their new houses via ARM‘s although they knew exactly how catastrophic the consequences can be? They play with fire and know that the state, the ECB or the Germans will bail them out.
I did the thing today that brings me the most joy and which is the greatest use of my fleeting time on this dumpster-fire planet.
I sat next to my wife somewhere and we watched our boy play baseball.
Life is good.
Glad to hear your procedure went well. Great call on the markets. Been following closely. I am in the metals business and what we are seeing are premiums on products across the board are rising on the bid and offer side. Although the paper price is going down, rising premiums are offsetting some of the pain. Number of large wholesalers are running out of inventory.
Maybe Powell will come out and give another speech?
Maybe he'll even travel to Jackson Hole and invite the plutocracy to attend?
I called that speech "stupid," because it was a substitute for action.
The Fed never hesitated to cut rates in between meetings the past 30 years.
It should have raised rates once between meetings to demonstrate some measure of catch-up.
It should raise rates today.
Tell me I'm wrong.
Sandy Beach mentioned money market funds. Some interesting data here. Not as much growth as you'd think. Retail funds only up $85 billion since December per FRED data, and the OFR shows a persistent decline in government MMFs over the same time frame. This includes institutional MMFs, which are twice the size of retail funds.
ICI has granular weekly and monthly data. It shows Retail funds up only $40 billion since March, when short term rates began to rise sharply. All of the gain was in non government MMFs. Government MMFs declined.
Another OFR data set shows how the Treasury's T-bill paydowns forced the MMFs out of their T-bill holdings. That money went straight into the Fed's RRP fund for MMFs.
MMFs are really a sideshow to the main event, the Primary Dealers. That's what I focus on in my research. They're the house. They run the markets, normally on behalf of the Fed. But the narcissists at the Fed no longer have any use for their strawmen dealers. So the Fed has abandoned them to the whims of their institutional customers.
The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers
Honestly gave up trying to understand what Jeff Snider's point was a long time ago. I suspect that he may be clinically insane.
The only person I find worth reading is Doug Noland, and I don't have time even for him. But often when I do read him, a lightbulb goes on for something for me to think about, even things that I disagree with.
From my perspective. It's just a continuation. 2000 never ended.
I traded each leg of the crash in the Nasdaq on this very forum. From top to bottom. I will mention...my was handle was "Ora(c)l(e) of Omaha" before Doc kindly changed it for me. I showed up shortly after the site started. I think there were about 30 guys here when I showed up and that swelled up another 100 or so shortly after and just slowly expanded from there.
While on that topic...
Where's that tip button Doc? I remember being able to PP you some tip money now and then?
Is the "Support your Local Stool Board" the right button to punch?
Bread and pastries aren't free in France are they?
Meanwhile, back at the bond market, the chart of the 10 year yield looks bullish as hell. Bullish for yield, bearish as hell for bond prices.
Below is the weekly chart of the 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF. Oh, the humanity.
This, ultimately is bearish as hell for everything. Historically, stocks have lagged bonds by 4-6 months. But this bond bear market has been going on for 20 months. When will it matter? Soon.