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  1. Which is to say, they've never seen a "market."
    3 points
  2. I was riding my Schwinn Stingray around with pals, wondering how to secure $0.25 to buy a Marathon Bar.
    2 points
  3. Rental real estate is different that stocks because the tenant is not only paying your mortgage, he's paying the interest on it also. So as long as you are cash flow positive, you come out ahead if you just hold. The tenant gives you a return on capital and of capital, regardless of price, if you just hold long enough. I know plenty of people who did very well by buying well located residential real estate and holding it forever. The increase in income enabled them to buy more property. Wash rinse repeat, and never sell. Cash flow just grows forever. But it's always about location.
    2 points
  4. Six months ago, separate friends of mine who know each other bought some residential real estate. We got into a four-way text conversation in March as rates crept up about the impact of rising rates on real estate. Did the basic math to calculate the erosion in financing power that the move from 2.5% to 3.5% or whatever had generated; and the difference between what loan/property someone might afford with an ability to spend $3k/month on a mortgage payment. Told ‘em prices must go lower. Fourth buddy agreed emphatically with basic math, but the other two insisted somehow magically purchasing power would prove robust & sticky. Didn’t matter for their small rental properties per se - although, their capital is definitely stuck at cost… indefinitely. It’s just an anecdote about people, capital, hope & math. Your chart is about people, capital, math & despair.
    2 points
  5. Yes Potatohead, they will refund you in Dogecoin.
    2 points
  6. On the way home. Walked down the Neirsche path. Resolved. Never again! And never ever ever walk up! Unless you're 25 years old.
    2 points
  7. I shit you not. This is what I'm looking at as I eat lunch at L'Chevre d'Or.
    2 points
  8. I just ran downstairs to get a burger and this is the scene out front.
    2 points
  9. Moved some of it. Not all of it. Too much, unfortunately. Coulda shoulda woulda. My bank has a euro deposit account, but the haircut is obscene. I should have opened an account at Interactive Brokers, deposited the doodahs there and made the switch there. Would cost next to nothing. Thing is, I despise Thomsass Petersflysopen, and I didn wanna do it. Didnwanna do it. So I paid through the nose instead. The chunk I left in doodahs will be moved to an IB Yourapeein account that I open here. Probably will open the account next week now that I will have a permanent address Tamara.
    2 points
  10. 2 points
  11. From my perspective. It's just a continuation. 2000 never ended. I traded each leg of the crash in the Nasdaq on this very forum. From top to bottom. I will mention...my was handle was "Ora(c)l(e) of Omaha" before Doc kindly changed it for me. I showed up shortly after the site started. I think there were about 30 guys here when I showed up and that swelled up another 100 or so shortly after and just slowly expanded from there. While on that topic... Where's that tip button Doc? I remember being able to PP you some tip money now and then? Is the "Support your Local Stool Board" the right button to punch? Bread and pastries aren't free in France are they? TCG
    2 points
  12. Meanwhile, back at the bond market, the chart of the 10 year yield looks bullish as hell. Bullish for yield, bearish as hell for bond prices. Below is the weekly chart of the 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF. Oh, the humanity. This, ultimately is bearish as hell for everything. Historically, stocks have lagged bonds by 4-6 months. But this bond bear market has been going on for 20 months. When will it matter? Soon.
    2 points
  13. Well, my house is sold. Again. This one should stick. Closing, March 25.
    2 points
  14. A BAD WITHDRAWAL Mr Market is having a bad withdrawal. Dealer Jay has cut him off. But only temporarily....to teach him a lesson. The simple fact is the Fed has to print and inflate to sustain the system. If it does not then it's hard default. That's why it chooses inflation.....soft default....every time.
    2 points
  15. The daily chart just broke through the bottom of my T.V. screen. I'm going out to buy a bigger T.V.
    2 points
  16. They've never seen a market without QE......
    2 points
  17. We know from the real time US Federal tax withholding data that the December jobs gain was NOT just 199k jobs. Withholding had a 3.2% higher annual growth rate in December than in November. That would equate with not 199,000 new jobs. More like 1.99 million. Now before you get too excited, not all of that increase in withholding was an increase in the number of jobs. The average weekly earnings rose by 0.8% M/M so that the real rate of change was 2.4%. We also know that withholding taxes include distributions other than regular income, particularly employee 401K and IRA distributions, which are subject to withholding. We can assume that these were higher this year than last year, but we don't know how much. It's unlikely that this would account for all of the difference between November and December. The 2.4% month to month real increase in withholding is the biggest since the initial post pandemic y/y surge in May. That surge settled down in June. December's is the strongest monthly performance since then. It is a full 1 % better than the previous peak in the year to year growth rate, in October. The BLS said that October jobs increased by 648,000. We have a 1% stronger annual increase in withholding taxes in December and yet the BLS reports only 199,000 gain in jobs? I mean WTF are they doing? Where are the other 447,000 jobs? Plus 1%. How did they miss that? Forget the tax data. Their own data says they missed a huge chunk of the jobs that were added last month. Let's use the BLS's own data. Let's look at December, not seasonally manipulated data, in other words, the actual number that they derived from their survey's before seasonal adjustment, for the previous 10 years. This is the month to month change that they themselves derived from their own surveys. What do you notice about this data? That's right. Every single December there were fewer jobs versus November. Except for one. This year. December 2021 has the only gain in jobs in the last 11 years. It was the best performer, by far, of all of the last 11 Decembers. Yet the BLS managed to see only a tepid gain of 199k in its headline number. Now let's see how the BLS ranks this December with the past 10 Decembers on the basis of their seasonally adjusted headline number. The M/M column shows the change from November each year. Rank is how that December ranked among the 11 years. December 2021 ranked 7th, that is, fourth worst of the last 11 years. How is is that they only managed to see an increase of 199k, ranking the 4th worst in the last 11 years, when last month was actually the best of the 11 years. How is that reasonably possible. It's ridiculous. It's absurd. It's criminal. And yet Wall Street takes this garbage seriously. Here's another way to look at it. Based on the BLS headline number, the December 2021 M/M change increased over December 2020's performance by 505K. That makes sense because December 2020 was terrible. But the actual data, NSA, says that it really increased by 591K. The BLS's own data shows that it missed at least 85,000 jobs. It also shows that the NSA data for December was +74,000 over December 2015 which BLS says was the best December of the previous decade. If last month was 74K better, then the headline number should have been 273k+74k= 347k. So even the BLS own data shows that they undercounted by anywhere from 85k to 306k. The only miss here was by the BLS. It missed the creation of a couple hundred thousand jobs. Based on the withholding tax data, they actually missed far more than that. Bond traders are not fooled by the BLS's statistical garbage. The 10 year yield has broken out and is headed for the projections I reported yesterday.
    2 points
  18. you looked great. Most of the time when someone is polished they are trying to sell something or some bullshit.
    2 points
  19. They're so full of crap. He knows that any reduction in QE, let alone a balance sheet runoff, will be disruptive. Yellen already tried it and look how far that got. The answer is 3.2%. That's how high the 10 year got in October 2018 when the Fed started to choke on its vomit.
    2 points
  20. A little later today, I'll be off on my travels to Slovenia, Slovakia, Poland, Czechia, and Germany. I'm saying farewell to Zadar, just as yesterday it seemed to say farewell to me! I will pack my trusty laptop snugly in its favorite backpack, so that I grab it from time to time and work along the way, publishing Liquidity Trader, the Wall Street Examiner, and keeping our little group of friends here up to date on my thoughts about the daily market squiggles from time to time. I don't know how much posting I will be doing today. I'll be on a bus for 6 hours, heading from Zadar to Ljubljana, Slovenia. For now, at 3:15 AM in New York here's how the hourly ES chart looks. The same. The end. As in the same trend channel the market has been in since June 21. As in slight new highs. As in still with reverse head and shoulders breakout measured move targets of 4315 and 4350. The first is all but a done deal. The second looks likely too, just not this week. There's not enough fluctuation for a 5 day cycle projection. On a 2-3 day basis we're looking at 4308. They've broken through the top of the megaphone pattern at 4295. That and 4290 look like s-port. Breakouts of rising trendlines often signal acceleration, if they're not immediately reversed into a false breakout. A band of trendlines from 4301-05 should present resistance. If not, the next would be currently around 4315. They're all rising. Here comes the judge. Ciao! I'll check in whenever possible! If you are a new visitor, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter. Meanwhile, End Stage Rally Now The Balance Begins To Shift Gold Needs A Bounce
    2 points
  21. End of month Treasury settlement. $79 billion gross. $58 billion net of T-bill paydowns. 13 week bill rate is surging again, back to 1.80, 22 bp above fective fed funds.
    1 point
  22. EMA200 hourly at 3792 kissed from below, now going down somewhat, but once broken LOA. A huge upday today would not be good, would mean follow thru.
    1 point
  23. 1 point
  24. Jim Grant’s on crapvision in our hotel room as we mow room service after a long nutty day of dune-buggying into Herzegovina to visit a big cave. My eldest points at the TV, sees the characteristic bowtie, and says, “It’s Bill Nye, The Stock Market Guy!”
    1 point
  25. He said he was really, really sorry for his contributions to the financial mess he helped to create; he understands & regrets the cynicism Fed policy has caused; and he is selling all his worldly goods, donating the proceeds to the Red Cross, and taking an oath of poverty & silence, only to spend his remaining days in a tiny Nepalese ashram.
    1 point
  26. Pro-tip: substitute “differentiation” for all these words.
    1 point
  27. 10 year movin’ on up. I have been watching California desert property out & around Joshua Tree for well over a decade. I believe there is a flood of property presently hitting the market there. About three months ago, many ads for places celebrated their histories as successful VRBOs… begging the question why sellers were selling. I have little doubt those VRBO empires were built on the largesse of adjustable rate mortgages, and the cash-flow no longer pencils out the way it did for many years. Now, the continued supply seems to be of junk properties from hopesters - perhaps also with ARMs - looking to cash out at the top of what has been a preposterous boom out there. They are too late to the party, obviously. My hope is some old timers with all the attributes I seek brings their properties to market at then-prevailing price, so I can finally have a place there. But as the 10-year climbs, pain and fear is going to become really dreadful for many.
    1 point
  28. CRYPTO....ITS ALL ABOUT THE KULTINESS Crypto has no intrinsic value....no stream of free cash flows stretching into the distant future to pay dividends etc. But as it has a price it has a value....but only a "price value" and really only a sale price value ...as you need to sell to crystalise the value. Assets with intrinsic value have a price and a value which is independent of each other ...a "value value" so to speak. Crypto's price IS its value. And is purely psycologically determined. Therefore the investment in the great propaganda apparatus on the internet to influenence the price of cypto's. The bigger the "Kultisphere" surrounding a crypto the higher the price. This is very similar to the kult stocks, meme stocks, SPACS etc. Thus Crypto is a great speculation but a terrible investment. Really one for the traders using technical analysis. Or for those who can measure the "Kultiness" level of the crypto and whether it is increasing or decreasing. Price follows Kultiness!!!! This is usually measured/signalled by changes in trading volume, number of youtube promotors and youtube promoter hits, google searches, mentioned on bulletin boards, subreddit posts, being added to or being subtracted from crypto exchanges, facebook post mentions, tweets, total market cap and market cap growth, etc etc. In other words the whole great and varied apparatus of internet "Atttention" in all its myraid expressions is measured to determine a crypto's level of "Kultiness". I am sure there is a vast army of algos/traders/hedge funds that measure all this and use these stats to trade crypto's.
    1 point
  29. This is intriguing: https://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1ss24a6 I’m looking forward to it.
    1 point
  30. Anybody who thinks inflation is moderating, think again. PPI- Final Demand- Core Finished Consumer Goods leads. And it is not suppressed by the bogus, Owner's Equivalent Rent fraud substitute for housing inflation. It just doesn't include housing. The Fed did this. Liquidity Trader- Money Trends How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!
    1 point
  31. All that I can tell you is the money is flowing into, and then out of, manufacturing and construction here in MI. It's the best job market since 1969. The state has a $2bn surplus.
    1 point
  32. Feb-March 2020. October 87. August-September 74. I dunno. Could be 10% in a week. 20% in a month. Something along those lines. Fast and relentless. Doesn't need to be 20% in a day, although I wouldn't rule it out either. With circuit breakers it would get diffused over a few days.
    1 point
  33. Not the prettiest giant downsloping H&S that projects right to the 50% retracement of the Covid low to the Top! Been Holding PSQ, RWM, SJB since the last time I posted here, quite a while back. I the quiet type that just likes to watch 😉
    1 point
  34. Is that... Is that... Is that, "not a lot"?
    1 point
  35. I told you I wouldn't be surprised. But I am. Kinda. Pleasantly.
    1 point
  36. The weekly chart has that farmmilier pattern.
    1 point
  37. On Wall Street, there's no sun up in the sky, stormy weather. Nice has a Mediterranean climate, nothing like Paris. Paris has real winters. In Nice, it's mostly sunny throughout the winter with daytime highs typically in the 50s. When there's a cold snap in January, highs may dip into the upper 40s for a day or two. That's the extent of winter here. Temperatures warm very gradually in March with highs typically in the upper 50s and sometimes low 60s. Same in April as highs creep into the upper 60s and low 70s through the month. Paris is more like the mid Atlantic climate I grew up with. Wild swings in weather from day to day and week to week in early Spring. Meanwhile, there's a definite chill on Wall Street here in the pre dawn hours around 5:20 AM in New York. The ES S&P futures have a 5 day cycle projection around 4490-95, or plausibly also 4470. There's a sport line confluence around 4475 that seems to support the latter. For more on the bigger picture: Holding Longs, Adding Shorts April 4, 2022 Market Still in “Fool The Majority” Mode April 3, 2022 Why March Withholding Taxes Showing Red Hot Economy Is Bearish April 3, 2022 The Iron Pyrite Trade April 5, 2022 Fragile and Dangerous Semi Blind Spot March 28, 2022 Screens Be Nimble, Screens Be Quick – They Were! March 27, 2022 Here’s Why This Will Be “The Rally that Fools the Majority” March 26, 2022 Seven and a Half Weeks of Bullish Liquidity Ahead March 19, 2022 If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
    1 point
  38. There was nothing new in what she said. Powell has said it. The minutes said it. Fact that QT is coming has been well telegraphed.
    1 point
  39. Yardi Matrix says February national average multifamily rent inflation was 15.3% y/y 0.6% m/m . These are based on market rent. This is the real inflation, not the BS the BLS uses for housing. As you know from listening to me whine about it for 20 years, the BLS doesn't count actual home prices. It would cost the government, and its corporate cronies, too much if it did. It doesn't count actual market rents. It uses something called Owner's Equivalent Rent, which is based on a yearly tenant rent survey, then adjusted monthly by what owners think their homes would rent for. As if they knew. But the annual survey asks tenants how much rent they are paying. That means contract rents. Contract rents are always lower than market rent and move up more slowly. That's because landlords factor in the frictional costs of tenant turnover. They would rather keep an existing tenant in place than incur vacancy, and the costs to refresh the unit for the next tenant. So they discount contract rent increases to keep existing tenants in place. This has nothing to do with the actual cost of rent in the market. Just like substituting hamburger for steak when prices are rising. It doesn't tell us what inflation actually is. It constructs CPI specifically to minimize the increases in labor contracts, and government contracts, salaries, and benefits, such as to social security recipients. That's why they took actual housing costs out in 1982. That's why they use hedonic adjustments, substituting cheaper shit in the index when prices of more expensive stuff is rising too fast. I think that the national rent index of inflation at 15.3% is a pretty good measure of annual inflation. The 0.6% figure for February isn't seasonally adjusted. March-June increases are likely to soar from there. Meanwhile the contract rent data that the BLS uses to suppress the CPI will come back to fart in their face, when rent inflation cools, because it will lag that cooling trend. Stay tuned, inflation fans. The game is only in the middle innings.
    1 point
  40. Now Bloomberg representing that, "LME Allows Deferral of Metal Delivery." Wonder if that's across the futures complex, and not just limited to nickel. Wow.
    1 point
  41. I have an offer on my house now that is 4% above my ask, which was at the top of where I thought the market value of my house would be. When I sold in 2005, I top ticked the market in my subdivision. Not sure here. I'm not trying to be a hero, just think it's prudent. And I want to buy over here in France, so I'm probably going to have a loss on that for a while if the market is topping out here. I don't think it is. Despite soaring prices, I still think that apartments on the French Riviera are undervalued relative to the cost of vacation homes in oceanfront cities in the US. At current interest rates on CDs and T-bills. having no monthly payment is a better investment than having a mortgage payment, or paying rent and investing the cash in CDs or T-bills. I sure wouldn't buy bonds to reach for yield. So I'll have more income and will buy more shit. Like more holiday rental apartments. 😁
    1 point
  42. LET'S get ready to rumble. One year cycle projection plausibly 2.35.
    1 point
  43. Remember this oldie but goodie. I had this conversation with Tom Bodrovics on December 28. Thanks to potatohead. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6YD_bP_gIk
    1 point
  44. These guys are 3 dimensional chess players. But there's another dimension.
    1 point
  45. Do they bang a cowbell everytime the SPX crosses 4400...........
    1 point
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