I have set this hourly chart of the ES, S&P 500 24 hour fuguetures, so that you can see the long term trendline extension from the January top through a couple of peaks on the way down. I'll give an overview of that, along with big picture implications, in Monday morning's Technical Trader update. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/technical-market-timing/ But for now we're looking at 4122 or so. The 5 day cycle projection also points to around 4120.
The numbers to watch in the premarket are 4080 and 4085. Clearing those should ignite the rocket boosters.
I would add that I think that bears would only have a shot here if they can keep this rally below 4090. 4085 would be better.
Meanwhile, Poowell said that the Fed is going to dial back the rate increases to 50 BP from 75, as if the Fed is "setting rates." Fact is that over the past 6 weeks the bellwether 13 week bill rate has risen by... drumroll please... 50 basis points. In other words, the Fed is still following the market, not leading it. Note also that neither the 13 week or 4 week bill rates have broken their uptrends.
Market interest rates are not causes. They are effects. They are meters of monetary tightness. There's no indication in this chart that that tightness is easing. The bull runs in stocks and bonds are swimming upstream.
Bears Beware, Money Managers Are Finally Spending their RRP Slush Fund November 30,2022
For moron the markets, see:
Bears Beware, Money Managers Are Finally Spending their RRP Slush Fund November 30,2022
Swing Trade Screen Picks – Read My Lips, No New Longs (A Few More Shorts) November 28, 2022
Major Inflection Point Here to Determine Whether Bull or Bear November 28, 2022
Gold and Miners, Pullback Looks OK November 23, 2022
Fed Policy Will Stay Bearish Until It’s Too Late November 20, 2022
The Repeal of Rule Number One, Don’t Fight the Fed November 14, 2022
Bond Market Rally is Technically Valid but Belies the Facts November 12, 2022
Bad News for the Markets – Not Just Withholding Boomed in October November 3, 2022
Surge in Withholding Tax Collections in October Indicates Faster Jobs Growth November 2, 2022
Bear Market Isn’t the Mirror of a Bull October 31, 2022
If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
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Since it's the weekend, I'm going to add a second, because it may provide some additional insight into the economics of the enterprise.
This farm has been on the market for two days. It is another large-parcel offering: 60 acres, and given two listed addresses, I'm going to assume they are two 30-acre plots. It does not appear to offer any permanent structures; however, one finds in the top-right corner of Photo #16 what appear to be two larger a-frame tents. They remind me of the tent that Hawkeye & Trapper lived in... which is to say, military surplus.
What's interesting to me is the following detail in the listing:
If you assume those material costs are the rounds & their imported soil (I mean, what else would it be?), then we now possess at least one ballpark figure for the upfront fixed costs on the most-basic NorCal pot farm.
WHAT IS THE MOST VALUABLE THING IN CRYPTO??????
Its not the coin....thats obviously worthless.
Answer: Its the exit liquidity!!!!!!!!!!
Without that the insiders can't dump their worthless native token for real money.
That's why they pay internet influences a small fortune to pump their coin.
Thats why they run their exhchanges at an operating loss to attrack traders and their associated deposits.
Thats why they burn the VC's capital to subsidize trading.
Thats why they then use the deposits to pump and price support the native token while they cash out.
I know... I know...
I know what you're thinking: "21,000 sqft permit... holiday-farming pikers. What's that for: cultivation of one's own annual stash?"
Well, if you need a larger property for a larger farm for a larger harvest, the property for you has just appeared in the last 17 hours!
80 acres (in the form of two 40-acre parcels) of NorCal emerald meadows, a couple structures, six greenhouses, onsite wells, seasonal creeks and....
Now, we're talking! The economics are clear: figure 53,000 sqft equates to veritable bushels of harvest, and the wholesale price per bushel has got to be, I dunno, a lot even with price distress. Back out the costs and you will be left with enough for... your own annual stash?
Thanks for the greetings!
And I too was here back in the Stooliolithic era. I remember as far back as YoBob, Bareister, Wyndy,Simple Guy, LeeWhee, KWR,etc. And Soup was hilarious-and occasionally concerning.
From April through October, Nice has the holiday tourist feel. The place is just packed with visitors from June through September, and the shoulder months are almost as busy. It's a lot of fun.
Another great thing about owning a nice apartment here, you can arbitrage your apartment for a vacation almost anywhere else in Europe, virtually always for less than you're getting in rent from your apartment. In some cases, much less, such as if you go to a Baltic Sea resort, or Slovenia or Croatia. That's seaside. If you go inland, it's even less. You could tool around beautiful central Europe, even in France, all summer and come back with more money in your trading account than when you left. For people like me, on a little bit of a budget, it's a nice perk. 😉
As for produce, there's a fresh produce stand about 120 meters from my door. Place is always busy, and the produce is cheaper than the supermarkets for most things, but not all. But it's cheap for a reason. I figured out after throwing shit away once or twice a week, that the guy buys lower quality merchandise. So I stopped shopping there. The Halal butcher shop/convenience store right across the street from me actually has better fresh produce, and his prices are competitive. But the best quality fruits and veggies are at the Monoprix, Carrefour, Casino, and Utile. There's also an ALDI just a few blocks away. Produce is always good there, and really cheap. Another discount chain on the same block is Netto. Haven't tried it yet.
The market in Cours Saleya is a tourist trap. The real market is in Liberation, along Ave Malausenna tram way. (extension of Jean Medicin) and around Place General de Gaulle. It's awesome. But believe it or not, the best produce is in the supermarkets. Some of the produce vendors are shysters.
The more distant reaches are too boring for us, too. The old port or your Place du Pin are the right distance from the old city: close enough to walk to the daily market for fresh produce & restaurants, but far enough away when you want respite from the hustle/bustle.
The wife & I rented a flat a block away from the bottom of the Crooked Street in San Francisco before kids. We could look out our window and see a gaggle of tourists snapping pictures from 7am until midnight. I loved the energy of tourists enjoying a locale: there's a simple joy to it.
The place had been in the landlord's family since the 1940s or something. Nice guy who lived in SoCal. I asked him once before committing to moving out whether he had any interest in selling the building, without much idea of how we'd finance it: we just loved the place and the views. He laughed, but said no: his tax basis was nothing and his rent-roll was fabulous. There was a mountain of deferred maintenance on the place.
I would guess he died this year, because the place came on the market for the first time about 4 months ago:
The wife & I bought some lottery tickets, with this place in mind.
Obviously we didn't win....
Thanks all for the welcome.
I have been a reader, off & on, for many years (way, way back), but came back last year as the markets were looking massively bloated again.
I enjoy reading all your posts and having a sense of comradery, it aint easy being a bear!!!
I live in Le Port district. It's wonderful. But so is the center of town. Mt. Boron, Cimiez, and further up in the hills have fantastic views, but are boring. Cannes, Villefranche, and Menton are also great, and there's a newly renovated train station at Nice St. Augustin that is a short walk to the airport.
Plus the ferry-links to other destinations!
Totally agreed. I look at listings primarily around the Old Port, because of the new tram connection to the airport: we could BART from our home to SFO, 2-putt through Paris, and then walk to our flat.
I've been prepositioning cash in IB like you & Sandy advised a few months back as the most convenient method to swap into euros if it sells off hard.
You gotta move to Nice. First of all, the city and the whole region are freaking gorgeous. Secondly, the transportation access both locally and regionally for all of Europe are phenomenal. Direct flights to and from every major city in Europe in less than 2 hours. 90 minutes to Paris and BCN, and 75 minutes to Rome.
What they said - welcome.
It is nice to see fresh posters.
You're all here for the pot farm reports, right?
I, too, am sickened by the inevitable bailout of the rich & unworthy: pretty much walked away from this website and market-following in general after the ca. 2008/2009 "Leave no Banker Behind". We still are operating in the shadow of that miserable eposiode.
I've looked at Golden Visa requirements in Portugal, Greece & Malta; and I've looked at a lot of apartment listings in Nice, because it enjoys an emotional attachment... and because I feel a similar impulse to pursue greener pastures.
But that may be a function of having overstayed residency in a Bay Area that has morphed sadly into... something it once wasn't.
Or, isn't it?
Pricier listing than others, coming in at $975K. But that purchases you 60 acres and a 3/2 house "updated with modern amenities" (all financed on a cash-over-the-barrel basis, I'm sure...). It also comes with "a 1 bedroom and 1 bath lake house, and a guest cabin." Nice... separate quarters for the hired farmer!
There are fifty-nice photos, which are all relatively uninteresting... until Photos #36 and thereafter, when several familiar covered structures come into view.
This property is 2-days old.
So... is it?
Or, isn't it?
On a day where some words from an old fool can send asset prices soaring, I'm in a foul mood.
So, here's 10 acres which I think I've yet to post, to compare to the 5 acres.
That is all.
Saying "I don't want to overtighten" is a marked change in tone from Jackson Hole and other speeches in Sept/Oct.
Heh - ho!!
Stumbled upon another 5 acre farm!!
And for only $185K, which seems a whole lot more reasonable asking for a relatively modest plot.
Bunch of rounds reveal the activity that seemed surreptitiously pursued: in addition to those still in place, there seems to be piles of rounds along the edges... along with the skeleton-remains of covered structures.
Almost a post-apocalyptic pot farm... which is important, because you can't survive the apocalypse without bushels of green.....
Back of the envelope (4800-3500) x 1.61 = 2100.
So if we get the 50% S&P retracement to 4150, Primary wave 3 could drop us all the way to 2050 or so.
Fibonacci left the building in 2010 when the Fed blew it away and made a mockery of it. In a potentially Fed-free environment, we might see it regain some stature.
Could apply to a continued rise in LT interest rates, as well. At least until the QE machine starts up again, then all bets are off.
This is a bear board?
I thought this was a farming website?
Did you know that you could...
For the low, low price of "only" $299K? That actually seems like a lot for ~5 acres, given the comps otherwise posted here in recent weeks. There is no price history on the place, so we can't compare asking to a prior transaction. Listing became active on October 13, 2022... just after the harvest cycle, I would guess.
This weird pot-farm thing began as a stumbled-upon oddity, while I passively looked for interesting second-homes in my beloved state. But it has me thinking more about enterprise opportunity. Cultivators are exiting, I assume, because the return on investment wasn't what they'd hoped it would be: "farming" is a whole lot less interesting at $500/plant (or whatever it is) than +$1,000/plant. I get that.
What I'm now trying to puzzle through is whether there is some prospect of finding a farm/facility that can be purchased, and then overseen by some enterprising young soul (say, a recent graduate out of the University of California at Davis, with an undergrad degree in Plant Sciences - https://caes.ucdavis.edu/students/academics/majors/plantsci) with whom you split harvest proceeds in an equitable manner. They make the property productive while learning first-hand the ins & outs of cultivation; as its owner, you earn a passive - albeit, modest - income.
If you have a return time horizon that extends farther out than those who are currently selling, then you can find financial purpose in the more modest return, as it slowly pays down the implied note on the purchase.
Additionally, there may exist an implied call option embedded in California pot farms in the form of prospective legalization at the federal level. So... you buy now from disheartened & impatient sellers at prices that reflect both depressed dollar-per-pound economics & high mortgage rates, you generate from it whatever income you might in the interim & indefinitely, and you sell when/if federal regulation disposes of its current "Schedule I" control.
Hmmm... just sort of thinking out loud here.
S&P 4000 was essentially the 38.2% retracement from the January 1 drop. Countertrend rally has brought out enough bulls for this to now be Primary Wave 3, The Great Humbler. A jam up to the 50% retracement of 4150 for a last high during the first week in January would also be poetic.
However, the quietness of this board and the disappearance of other bear boards suggests that Frazier might really be in the house this time. Really.
This property is over 5 hours north of the Bay Area. Harvest/processing/sale was probably completed... about 20 hours ago, when this listing went live. The photos reveal pre-harvest bounty: some listings only hint at what's afoot, while this one positively celebrates its full flourish of plantings & even an individual "glam-shot" of sticky-ass bud (specifically, Photo #15).
This listing is also interesting to me, because I think it may reveal something about the cultivation process. Look first at Photo #3: it shows a covered structure along side the framework of a neighboring covered structure. Now look at Photo #16: I believe it shows the same effective photograph angle, but later in the season. Note that the covered structure in Photo #3 is removed in Photo #16. Lastly, check out Photo #12 & #20, which shows juveniles in a covered structure.
I think this shows the cultivation process: start juveniles in a covered structure as seen in Photo #12. Once they grow large enough, you string cross-netting as seeing Photo #20 as preparation against wind, and as support for limbs weighed down by buds. Then, when the plants are large enough for the natural elements, you remove the cover and afford them the natural season, as seen first in Photo #3... but you stagger plantings so you have a rolling harvest... which may be why only one of those two structures is uncovered. (We do this with tomato planting in our garden: put in a series of juveniles over the course of a month, rather than all at once, so that the resulting harvest does not all come at once, but instead, we enjoy an extended period of picked fresh tomatoes, as they mature in sequence.) Lastly, Photo #16 shows that the earlier-uncovered crop is larger than the later-uncovered crop behind it. I'd guess staggering the planting this way would allow a smaller crew to manage harvest & processing.