this looks bad. largest shale company in the us is bankrupt.
"Whiting Petroleum Corp., facing more than a quarter-billion dollar debt maturity, filed for bankruptcy Wednesday"
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This is a very helpful link - you can view all of US but the top drop down let's you look at numbers for your own state for bed, ICU and ventilator shortages. This is from WU and based on their model I would say this will start of noisy (wrong) but as time goes on will get more and more accurate. So you can get a pretty good idea if you should stay in your state if you are at risk. California is in good shape in terms of ICU/Beds but we need more than a thousand ventilators. New York needs to massively expand.
http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Jimi, Sandy et. al.
I'm so grateful and proud that you guys have come back and made such valued contributions to the discussion. I hope you stick around this time when the bull comes back, but if not, thank you anyway from the bottom of my heart.
Jimi- I'm really glad to hear that you and your family got that ordeal!
Now on with the show!
In my opinion the bubble broke, and the system is way too far gone to reflate. It may go to 1300. It may not. It doesn't matter. The damage is done. It's final. It can't be repaired. The Fed and its cohorts are now the banking system. Taxpayers and depositors are on the hook for the debt now. All of it. Every penny. We're doomed.
Will it be deflation or hyperinflation. I don't know. I just know that most people will be poor for years and years. Decades maybe. Forever, maybe.
Who wants to touch the derivatives portfolio of Deutsche Bank? Caution: Toxic
A former KPMG guy once told me: "Nobody knows what's really in that portfolio, not even DB itself."
I think if Germany would nationalize Deutsche the whole state would blow up
that monster spike in oil was only due to a tweet from Trumpinski, where he said that he "hopes" and "believes" that the Saudis and Russians agree to a 10 million barrel cut.
My gawd, both even didn't talk with each other yet!
ZH demonstrates the fact that alternative views of monetary matters have been deeply entwined with American right wing ideology, or just simply prejudices, since the 1950's when the John Birch society called for eliminating the Fed. Which coincidentally folded into familiar gold buggery and ancient tropes about Jewish bankers. ZH knowingly tapped into these things because that is where the market is. If it is Russian per say or consciously fascist with an agenda to advance such political emotions is probably secondary to just making a buck.
The old John Birch Society ideas of economics, as ill formed as they were, lead to an almost universal belief among Americans who identify as Liberal, or let's say not Conservative, to reject any questioning of 'the money' because such was seen as far rightest. In fact much of it was and is of the right.
Here lies the core of why Lee's analysis goes unheard. Of course the other root of the problem is almost nobody understands where money comes from, that is the mechanisms of it's creation. Which leads back to the rejection of any questioning of 'the money' because it's rightest. A vicious circle in other words. In nearly two decades of trying to engage non Conservatives in examining 'the money' never once have I gotten to first base.
Right - I was just yapping. Happens - imagine my poor-suffering wife.
I've never registered with ZH - much of its stuff is insane and designed to make one paranoid & angry. The comments are even more insane - a lot of racist clapatrap.
But I do check it and learn a thing or two - like that 400oz bars are the standard for London delivery, whereas 100oz for Chicago. Or what one or another person has said overnight on Bloomberg.
I have no account at ZeroHedge. I read their page but the comments are from the hounds of hell and I just won't interact with the low life that hangs out there. Plus the content is going down hill. They used to cover more trading topics - now it's like thrill seeking.
With apologies to Factcheck.org... https://www.factcheck.org/2020/03/trumps-statements-about-the-coronavirus/
Feb. 18: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person selling on Wall Street. We have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.” — Trump in a CNBC interview.
Feb. 19: “We think we have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at this moment — five — and those people are all funding margin calls successfully. But we’re working very closely with Wall Street and other central banks, and we think it’s going to have a very good ending for us … that I can assure you.” — Trump in a speech in Michigan.
Feb. 20: “Now, the stimulus that we’re talking about having to do — you know, a lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April. We’re in great shape though. We have 12 illiquid hedge funds — 11 cases, and many of them are in good shape now.” — Trump at the White House. (See our item “Will the New Coronavirus ‘Go Away’ in April?“)
Feb. 21: “There’s a theory that, in April, when it gets warm — historically, that has been able to kill the selling. So we don’t know yet; we’re not sure yet. But that’s around the corner.” — Trump in speaking to National Border Patrol Council members.
Feb. 23: “We have it very much under control in this country.” — Trump in speaking to reporters.
Feb. 24: “The selling is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. The Fed & Treasury have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!” — Trump in a tweet.
Feb. 26: “So we’re at the low level. As insolvent firms get better, we take them off the list, so that we’re going to be pretty soon at only five bankruptcies. And we could be at just one or two bankruptcies over the next short period of time. So we’ve had very good luck.” — Trump at a White House briefing.
Feb. 26: “And again, when you have 15 illiquid bond funds, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.” — Trump at a press conference.
Feb. 27: “It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — selling will disappear.” — Trump at a White House meeting with African American leaders.
Feb. 29: “And I’ve gotten to know these hedge fund professionals. They’re incredible. And everything is under control. I mean, they’re very, very cool. They’ve done it, and they’ve done it well. Everything is really under control.” — Trump in a speech at the CPAC conference outside Washington, D.C.
March 4: “[W]e have a very small number of people in this country [selling securities]. We have a big country. The biggest impact we had was when we took the 40-plus people [advising people on Twitter to sell]. … We brought them back. We immediately quarantined them. But you add that to the numbers. But if you don’t add that to the numbers, we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.” — Trump at a White House meeting with airline CEOs.
March 4: “Well, I think the 3.4% is really a false number.” — Trump in an interview on Fox News, referring to the percentage of small businesses that might survive into July. (See our item “Trump and the Coronavirus Death Rate.”)
March 7: “No, I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.” — Trump, when asked by reporters if he was concerned about the arrival of Bill Ackman on CNBC.
March 9: “So last year 37,000 Americans had negative returns in their 401(k). It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of losses, with 22 margin accounts closed. Think about that!” — Trump in a tweet.
March 10: “And we’re prepared, and we’re doing a great job with pumping the equity markets. And selling will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.” — Trump after meeting with Republican senators.
So the #SPX
1. rally stop at 38,2 FIBO
2. now keep falling,
3. fall below 55 EMA/SMA 1H
4. fall below 38,2% of the last rally
Man, this is really weak!
They are all bankrupt but still pumping right up till the last moment. The fracking boom is an even better example than Boeing of stories which encapsulate the entire post GFC period.
I see they are going to continue to operate. If that means produce I can't say.
Australia seizes faulty coronavirus protective equipment imported from China
Authorities have begun seizing Chinese-made faulty face masks and other protective clothing that is being exported to Australia to help halt the spread of coronavirus.
The ABC has learnt that in recent weeks, Australian Border Force (ABF) officers have intercepted several deliveries of personal protective equipment (PPE) that have been found to be counterfeit or otherwise faulty.
One law enforcement official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, estimated the ABF had already seized 800,000 masks with a combined value of more than $1.2 million on the Australian market.
"We started seeing this stuff arriving roughly three weeks ago when news of the pandemic was really taking off," the official told the ABC.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-01/coronavirus-chinese-ppe-border-force-intercepted/12085908
Except that it was predictable and predicted as a 100% certainty, only a matter of when. I read an excellent description, eerily accurate, written in 2008 by a Canuck, Andrew Nikiforuk: https://www.amazon.com/Pandemonium-Disease-Biological-Plagues-Century/dp/0670045195
I'm amazed that it really happened, just like the rest of us, because I'm so used to being all alone worrying about what could go wrong and then proven wrong in arrears. So this is taking me by surprise too. But it's no black swan, not really.
I was talking to Doc the other day, and reflecting on how badly wrong I've gotten many things. But because of our time together 15 years ago (longer!), my living arrangement and many aspects of my situation are perfectly calibrated to weather this thing, and others like it. I wish I had believed my eyes and gotten my more mainstream investments out of the way, but still I have no debt, live outside the city and am semi-self-sufficient, and will basically be just fine (as things currently stand). I was a normie before becoming a stoolie, so thank you all for that.
Talked to a friend in Parma, Italy today and the E.R. at peak had 980 new people admitted per day and today it had zero new cases. Quarantine can work! I think deaths will peak in less than a month from now in my area. The trick is going to be scaling out of quarantine safely and getting businesses back up and running and restricting travel. Hopefully we'll have more face masks by then.
As optimistic as I feel about the SF Bay Area I am much less so for other areas which started too late. They will take longer and could reinfect the rest of the country.
I think we're going to retest the low personally and it may or may not hold. I think the news is eventually going to be terrible for the next couple of months in the U.S.
I'm no great Newsom fan, but I will vote for him for anything forever.
https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/03/30/bend-it-like-the-bay-area-doctors-see-flatter-curve-after-2-weeks-of-social-isolation-1269663
JFC.
Let's entertain it.
We head up on a nominal basis.
It is purchased with credit invented from thin air by the Fed.
Heady inflation is let loose, it infects everything, eventually stagflation returns, along with rollerskates & short-shorts.
It's incredible to think that the USG is going to go $2 trillion casually into further debt, on top of the largest peacetime deficits, at a time when it has postponed taxes due, the economy is frozen, there is no petrodollars available for recycling, and no China, Inc. dollars for recycle.
We just gonna monetize prosperity.
THREE QUANT LESSONS FROM COVID-19
https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=367099102068002125064068092121024107038049048023079045090089086025029119024113018112053049038042059099045106064070104098116029020036071089003018114009120101093092052093054078115024096019087122009000123120119025094066073026077107074100087064124066117&EXT=pdf
Look at that! CHANNELINGSTOCKSDOTCOM! CHANNELINGSTOCKSDOTCOM! CHANNELINGSTOCKSDOTCOM!
LOL
OK. I'll stop.
The isolation is causing my fixations to intensify.
There is so much money being pumped into the markets that I can't keep track of all of it.
But in terms of direct market effects, the Fed's actions with Primary Dealers are the real high powered money. The BoJ and ECB are also important, but there's no one like the Fed, no one in the world. There is no one you can dread, who is anything like the Fed. They can't print like the Fed. They can't pump like the Fed. They can't fake like the Fed. They're not anything like the Fed!
There's no one like the Fed, no one in the world. There is no one you can dread, who is anything like the Fed. They can't print like the Fed. They can't pump like the Fed. They can't fake like the Fed. They're not anything like the Fed!
Hey!
Doc,
do you have the following on your radar screen? It was published in the night from Wednesday to thrusday:
https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/monetary-policy/unconventional-monetary-policy/7513741/ecb-drops-bond-holding-limits-for-crisis-package
Here is the document:
DECISION (EU) 2020/440 OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:32020D0440&from=EN
those changes of their original programme which they released on March 18th are dramatic! My goodness!
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/!/the-ecb-is-pushing-the-boundaries-with-its-new-qe-program-to-20200326
The amount of stimulus and the injections from the FED are simply unreal. You have to read them 3 times to really get them. First your brain says „what? Eff me!“ than st one point you start to accept that they are for real.
What we also learn these days: Blackrock is the msrket and the market is blackrock and the FED ist blackrock and Blackrock is the FED. The FED will always bailout blackrock, so your ishares ETF are safe.
I HAVE TO CONFESS
I always wanted to buy Tabcorp stock
(they own most of the lotteries in oz)
But i considered it too expensive at $5.
PE always above 20....not a bargain.
Bought some today for $2.70
Half price
Couldnt resist.
A blood-sampling doctor from Monroe
Would test COVID wherever he’d go.
Some men there said that he should
Reflect on the Talmud
Before then letting their own blood to flow.
