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  1. Those 11 work at the FED now 😂
    3 points
  2. Which is to say, they've never seen a "market."
    3 points
  3. So I took a walk around town tonight around 10:30 PM and the sense of economic devastation and impending doom in Europe was palpable. OK. Not really.
    2 points
  4. It's "Bonus Friday"!! I mentioned above I felt like I'd seen properties that looked like pot grower's places... and that they'd make sense now in retrospect? This place up in Willits, maybe about 2.5 hours north of the Bay Area, is one of those "retrospective" places.... https://www.redfin.com/CA/Willits/42553-Covelo-Rd-95490/home/179222272 If you look at the first seven pictures of this... 1bd/1ba... ... organic geodesic yurt hybrid (???)... it silently screams, "Professional Stoner." It's the sort of place where a guest wanders in circles because his buddy living there mischievously says, "Where's the bong? Oh... I left it in the corner..." and then giggles himself into hysterics while staring up at the soft, puffy ceiling. Anyway... photo 20 reveals the tell-tale signs of water-tanks & PVC piping. "But where is the greenhouse? Or the loops & plastic covering?" Those were the only "tells" I knew of pot farming. Now that I've come to believe that "Stoned-henge Rounds" are an outdoor propagation variant, it all comes together in photos 24 & 25. This looks like a pot farm that was abandoned before this season, given the growth of non-psychoactive weeds in those rounds. Meanwhile, if you check out the "Price Activity" in the listing, you'll note that this property listed as first "Active" in... October 2021... which would have been right after last year's harvest. Interesting comp: ~$300K will currently buy ~160 acres in remote NorCal.
    2 points
  5. Oh joy! I am not a trader, so have little on that topic to contribute, but I am very glad to provide something - anything! - here for others, given the generosity of those here who have enriched my market understanding for years. Okay, so I realized two things. First, last night I was wondering why I was encountering these listings all of sudden. And then it struck me and I felt very stupid for having been so slow: "Of course - it's harvest season! Right now!" These properties are "all of a sudden" being listed because their associated final harvest has been secured and it is time to move on. For today's episode, I move southeast of the Bay Area in the region affectionately known as, "the Road to Kirkwood." Kirkwood is a ski resort - I believe the highest in local elevation, and therefore with some of the region's most reliable snow - frequented by Bay Arians of a certain stripe. It is not among the ritzy "Tahoe resorts" per se, because it isn't, in fact, on the lake; nor does one have to drive over the infamous Donner Pass to reach it. Kirkwood possesses precious little in the way of "après ski" but it has some exceptionally challenging runs: once on a lift there, a ski patrol dude told me that it is the preferred resort for all the seasonal workers looking to ski on their day off. It is a relatively unassuming but large & varied resort, and it is where the wife & I have primarily taken our beloved spawn to learn to ski. Accordingly, I have kept an eye out for properties "on the Road to Kirkwood" that would serve the role of ski cabin, although now more out of curiosity than intention, since we will be empty nesters in due time, and the period for "amortizing" such a purchase with weekend ski trips with our sons has passed. Anyway, here is a listing from yesterday, on one of the Roads to Kirkwood: https://www.redfin.com/CA/FIDDLETOWN/18102-OLD-RIVER-RD-95629/home/45623078 This one struck me, because of three things. First, the description indicates, "private property with rolling southern facing hills": that suggests "growers." Second, the description also indicates, "the last tenant left the a mess": setting aside the grammatical misuse there of duplicative articles, I once had occasion as a young, broke man to rent a home from someone who had grown pot previously in it (only learned this after the fact... interesting story, but I digress). They, too, had left a mess. Hmm... stoners are messy. Third, photo 8 shows the usual telltale signs: a large plastic structure for holding well water and what looks like the remnants of a white plastic cover. Suggestive but not determinative. Then, photo 11 shows haphazard PVC piping... which is very suggestive. Then, there are photos 13 & 14. WTF are those? It looks like some sort of agrarian Stonehenge tribute laid out in a forest clearing. Maybe the messy renters were practicing Druids? And they mounted these round structures for religious purposes? Maybe Druids are simply messy because... it's part of their forest-clearing agrarian Stonehenge rituals? So, I did some googling, and what do you know!? I don't think they were Druids! The photo below from here suggests the messy renters were very likely growers probably using a variant of a raised-soil trellis system in the forest clearing, where available soil was suboptimal. I never knew about this burlap-rounds growing approach until I looked at this listing on the Road to Kirkwood. Pretty interesting! I'm persuaded it was a pot farm. This revelation makes me realize that a handful of properties I've reviewed in recent weeks and thought, "Hmmm.... that looks like a pot grower's place, but the grow-area doesn't make any sense to me," will probably make sense now in retrospect now that I understand that this is a distinctive trend.... Happy Friday!
    2 points
  6. My handle is a play on the Spanish word baboso. Literally means "slobbery". In Tex-Mex it means idiot, or worse. If I post something that doesn't sound too intelligent, you know why. 😆
    2 points
  7. Not forced. Required as part of their special status. Normally it always works in their favor. This wasn't in the playbook. Used to be in the old days that they would short against the upcoming auctions. Until 2009, they were always net short. Of course, that was wrong in 2007-08, which is why they went bust and collapsed the financial system. Today is a mirror image of that. They were record net long at the bond market price top in July 2020. And they've never gotten net short. Not even for a day. Positioned wrong all the way. They made money on stocks to cover for it. But now that game is done too. Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late
    2 points
  8. Moral hazard never dies. But isn‘t it moral hazard too when 93% of those cute Portugese finance their new houses via ARM‘s although they knew exactly how catastrophic the consequences can be? They play with fire and know that the state, the ECB or the Germans will bail them out.
    2 points
  9. The screaming has started. Yes the torrent of fed criticism has begun. More and more public pressure will be placed on the fed to pivot. But pivoting is no solution. It will just lead to more inflation. There are no good solutions left. Can't wait for the requisite Cramer meltdown to "do something". The fed has just let the market find its own level on rates. The calls to pivot are profoundly anti market.
    2 points
  10. I did the thing today that brings me the most joy and which is the greatest use of my fleeting time on this dumpster-fire planet. I sat next to my wife somewhere and we watched our boy play baseball. Life is good.
    2 points
  11. Glad to hear your procedure went well. Great call on the markets. Been following closely. I am in the metals business and what we are seeing are premiums on products across the board are rising on the bid and offer side. Although the paper price is going down, rising premiums are offsetting some of the pain. Number of large wholesalers are running out of inventory.
    2 points
  12. Dealers buy the bottom. "Retail" buys the top. 😄
    2 points
  13. 2 points
  14. Frantic Friday short covering will further weaken the market.
    2 points
  15. Not much sign of stress here. 20220923_211319~2.mp4
    2 points
  16. Maybe Powell will come out and give another speech? Maybe he'll even travel to Jackson Hole and invite the plutocracy to attend? I called that speech "stupid," because it was a substitute for action. The Fed never hesitated to cut rates in between meetings the past 30 years. It should have raised rates once between meetings to demonstrate some measure of catch-up. It should raise rates today. Tell me I'm wrong.
    2 points
  17. Do I get any credit for posting the Jaws theme yesterday?
    2 points
  18. Sandy Beach mentioned money market funds. Some interesting data here. Not as much growth as you'd think. Retail funds only up $85 billion since December per FRED data, and the OFR shows a persistent decline in government MMFs over the same time frame. This includes institutional MMFs, which are twice the size of retail funds. ICI has granular weekly and monthly data. It shows Retail funds up only $40 billion since March, when short term rates began to rise sharply. All of the gain was in non government MMFs. Government MMFs declined. Another OFR data set shows how the Treasury's T-bill paydowns forced the MMFs out of their T-bill holdings. That money went straight into the Fed's RRP fund for MMFs. MMFs are really a sideshow to the main event, the Primary Dealers. That's what I focus on in my research. They're the house. They run the markets, normally on behalf of the Fed. But the narcissists at the Fed no longer have any use for their strawmen dealers. So the Fed has abandoned them to the whims of their institutional customers. The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers
    2 points
  19. Honestly gave up trying to understand what Jeff Snider's point was a long time ago. I suspect that he may be clinically insane. The only person I find worth reading is Doug Noland, and I don't have time even for him. But often when I do read him, a lightbulb goes on for something for me to think about, even things that I disagree with.
    2 points
  20. I was riding my Schwinn Stingray around with pals, wondering how to secure $0.25 to buy a Marathon Bar.
    2 points
  21. Rental real estate is different that stocks because the tenant is not only paying your mortgage, he's paying the interest on it also. So as long as you are cash flow positive, you come out ahead if you just hold. The tenant gives you a return on capital and of capital, regardless of price, if you just hold long enough. I know plenty of people who did very well by buying well located residential real estate and holding it forever. The increase in income enabled them to buy more property. Wash rinse repeat, and never sell. Cash flow just grows forever. But it's always about location.
    2 points
  22. Six months ago, separate friends of mine who know each other bought some residential real estate. We got into a four-way text conversation in March as rates crept up about the impact of rising rates on real estate. Did the basic math to calculate the erosion in financing power that the move from 2.5% to 3.5% or whatever had generated; and the difference between what loan/property someone might afford with an ability to spend $3k/month on a mortgage payment. Told ‘em prices must go lower. Fourth buddy agreed emphatically with basic math, but the other two insisted somehow magically purchasing power would prove robust & sticky. Didn’t matter for their small rental properties per se - although, their capital is definitely stuck at cost… indefinitely. It’s just an anecdote about people, capital, hope & math. Your chart is about people, capital, math & despair.
    2 points
  23. Yes Potatohead, they will refund you in Dogecoin.
    2 points
  24. On the way home. Walked down the Neirsche path. Resolved. Never again! And never ever ever walk up! Unless you're 25 years old.
    2 points
  25. I shit you not. This is what I'm looking at as I eat lunch at L'Chevre d'Or.
    2 points
  26. I just ran downstairs to get a burger and this is the scene out front.
    2 points
  27. Moved some of it. Not all of it. Too much, unfortunately. Coulda shoulda woulda. My bank has a euro deposit account, but the haircut is obscene. I should have opened an account at Interactive Brokers, deposited the doodahs there and made the switch there. Would cost next to nothing. Thing is, I despise Thomsass Petersflysopen, and I didn wanna do it. Didnwanna do it. So I paid through the nose instead. The chunk I left in doodahs will be moved to an IB Yourapeein account that I open here. Probably will open the account next week now that I will have a permanent address Tamara.
    2 points
  28. 2 points
  29. From my perspective. It's just a continuation. 2000 never ended. I traded each leg of the crash in the Nasdaq on this very forum. From top to bottom. I will mention...my was handle was "Ora(c)l(e) of Omaha" before Doc kindly changed it for me. I showed up shortly after the site started. I think there were about 30 guys here when I showed up and that swelled up another 100 or so shortly after and just slowly expanded from there. While on that topic... Where's that tip button Doc? I remember being able to PP you some tip money now and then? Is the "Support your Local Stool Board" the right button to punch? Bread and pastries aren't free in France are they? TCG
    2 points
  30. Meanwhile, back at the bond market, the chart of the 10 year yield looks bullish as hell. Bullish for yield, bearish as hell for bond prices. Below is the weekly chart of the 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF. Oh, the humanity. This, ultimately is bearish as hell for everything. Historically, stocks have lagged bonds by 4-6 months. But this bond bear market has been going on for 20 months. When will it matter? Soon.
    2 points
  31. Well, my house is sold. Again. This one should stick. Closing, March 25.
    2 points
  32. A BAD WITHDRAWAL Mr Market is having a bad withdrawal. Dealer Jay has cut him off. But only temporarily....to teach him a lesson. The simple fact is the Fed has to print and inflate to sustain the system. If it does not then it's hard default. That's why it chooses inflation.....soft default....every time.
    2 points
  33. The daily chart just broke through the bottom of my T.V. screen. I'm going out to buy a bigger T.V.
    2 points
  34. They've never seen a market without QE......
    2 points
  35. We know from the real time US Federal tax withholding data that the December jobs gain was NOT just 199k jobs. Withholding had a 3.2% higher annual growth rate in December than in November. That would equate with not 199,000 new jobs. More like 1.99 million. Now before you get too excited, not all of that increase in withholding was an increase in the number of jobs. The average weekly earnings rose by 0.8% M/M so that the real rate of change was 2.4%. We also know that withholding taxes include distributions other than regular income, particularly employee 401K and IRA distributions, which are subject to withholding. We can assume that these were higher this year than last year, but we don't know how much. It's unlikely that this would account for all of the difference between November and December. The 2.4% month to month real increase in withholding is the biggest since the initial post pandemic y/y surge in May. That surge settled down in June. December's is the strongest monthly performance since then. It is a full 1 % better than the previous peak in the year to year growth rate, in October. The BLS said that October jobs increased by 648,000. We have a 1% stronger annual increase in withholding taxes in December and yet the BLS reports only 199,000 gain in jobs? I mean WTF are they doing? Where are the other 447,000 jobs? Plus 1%. How did they miss that? Forget the tax data. Their own data says they missed a huge chunk of the jobs that were added last month. Let's use the BLS's own data. Let's look at December, not seasonally manipulated data, in other words, the actual number that they derived from their survey's before seasonal adjustment, for the previous 10 years. This is the month to month change that they themselves derived from their own surveys. What do you notice about this data? That's right. Every single December there were fewer jobs versus November. Except for one. This year. December 2021 has the only gain in jobs in the last 11 years. It was the best performer, by far, of all of the last 11 Decembers. Yet the BLS managed to see only a tepid gain of 199k in its headline number. Now let's see how the BLS ranks this December with the past 10 Decembers on the basis of their seasonally adjusted headline number. The M/M column shows the change from November each year. Rank is how that December ranked among the 11 years. December 2021 ranked 7th, that is, fourth worst of the last 11 years. How is is that they only managed to see an increase of 199k, ranking the 4th worst in the last 11 years, when last month was actually the best of the 11 years. How is that reasonably possible. It's ridiculous. It's absurd. It's criminal. And yet Wall Street takes this garbage seriously. Here's another way to look at it. Based on the BLS headline number, the December 2021 M/M change increased over December 2020's performance by 505K. That makes sense because December 2020 was terrible. But the actual data, NSA, says that it really increased by 591K. The BLS's own data shows that it missed at least 85,000 jobs. It also shows that the NSA data for December was +74,000 over December 2015 which BLS says was the best December of the previous decade. If last month was 74K better, then the headline number should have been 273k+74k= 347k. So even the BLS own data shows that they undercounted by anywhere from 85k to 306k. The only miss here was by the BLS. It missed the creation of a couple hundred thousand jobs. Based on the withholding tax data, they actually missed far more than that. Bond traders are not fooled by the BLS's statistical garbage. The 10 year yield has broken out and is headed for the projections I reported yesterday.
    2 points
  36. you looked great. Most of the time when someone is polished they are trying to sell something or some bullshit.
    2 points
  37. They're so full of crap. He knows that any reduction in QE, let alone a balance sheet runoff, will be disruptive. Yellen already tried it and look how far that got. The answer is 3.2%. That's how high the 10 year got in October 2018 when the Fed started to choke on its vomit.
    2 points
  38. That's not a bad practice... The monthly chart will never lie to you. I've come up with a million scenarios in my head when looking at the daily...then I go to the weekly and those scenarios I've dreamt up in my mind start to fall apart. The monthly....usually drives it all home. The monthly chart is like a good instructor looking over your shoulder. The Aug candle in AAPL is now confirmed as we close Sep. In this respect...what's true in the daily is true in the monthly. "I will judge what I see this month, by the next month to follow..." Although...that decline from the August 14 candle peak in the weekly? Well...it's beautiful...but you might want to watch for support points from 130 to 140. Now...that's congestion. Best, TCG oh...and... You have me on these movie quotes. I avoid modern movies. I have an archive of movies from 1928 to 1952 that is so large, well...trust me...the collection is extensive by any measure and I prefer to just watch the old stuff. Although, Tom(Tom is my right hand man) got me a DVD of some Pi movie over a decade ago. Said the guy in it reminded him of me...that is until I watched the thing. The guy was a hot mess. I walked away wanting to either fire him or take a good long look in the mirror. I still haven't decided... No more financial movies...they scare me. Smile. My favorite movie is uh...let me see. I'd probably pick a Tyrone Powers movie for a top pick. Uh...While I loved 'Razor's Edge' because I'm also a fan of Gene Tierney(She's absolutely scary in "Leave Her to Heaven" and Clifton Webb IS an all time favorite of mine.), and I believe 'This Above All' was superb because of the ever beautiful Joan Fontaine...I'd have to go with...Nightmare Alley and Nightmare Alley would just barely edge out Laura. If my hand was forced...I'd have to say this is my top 5. 1) Nightmare Alley and/or Laura 2) The Razor's Edge 3) The Red Shoes and/or This Above All 4) To Have and Have Not and/or Key Largo 5) Algiers and/or Casablanca. Why do I put Algiers on the same level as Casablanca? Because of its simplicity. I also apologize...I probably should have called this a top 10, but...the titles I list and/or....for me are just too close to call and any list without African Queen...or since I'm a goldbug at heart...no mention of "Treasures of the Sierra Madre" really isn't complete. Maybe...I'll sit and think about it for awhile and come up with a top 10 instead. I'd imagine most of these are probably free on youtube. Nightmare Alley is a must watch in my opinion.
    1 point
  39. Lee,any thoughts? could all this hedging force weak shorts out and rally the market. .You have always said the shorts are their own worst enemy.
    1 point
  40. 75 bps from the ECB… in the face of Europe’s worst energy crisis in a half-century… Here’s a simple political-economy equation: Cold + Unemployed = Angry Protestor Christmas & New Years should be a “riot” in European capitals this season….
    1 point
  41. this inflation thing is serious shit and biting everyone. it ain't going anywhere, anytime soon. an internet connected toaster will not resolve this.
    1 point
  42. Seriously, right?! There was some old joke I can’t remember whose punchline was that it was created by an EU bureaucratic committee in Brussels. That statement reminded me of that.
    1 point
  43. I’m so outta touch, I didn’t even realize it’s Fee week.
    1 point
  44. Lee could some of this move be a repo/liquidity crisis rather than market just pricing in the Fed?
    1 point
  45. I think they guy on the right is Karl Malden.
    1 point
  46. "Distilled energy" - that's good. Haven't heard that. I read an article that observed that growing a single almond requires a gallon of water, and California's almond farms produce something like 80% of global supply... which means almonds constitute a massive water-export.
    1 point
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