In short, no. You do not see armies of homeless people in Croatia like you do in US cities. Croatia is a poor country, but they seem to have ways of housing their poorest and most needy, unlike the US.
I'm not familiar with their social services beyond their health care system, which I have paid to use on occasion. The facilities are right out of the socialist era, not palatial monuments to excess like in the US. But care seems good. Medical professionals are highly trained. They have modern equipment, and at least in Zagreb, there are plenty of medical specialists to treat particular di
Utter nonsense from people who have no idea what they're talking about. Gross issuance is irrelevant when the Fed (not to mention the ECB and BoJ) buys or finances all of it. It means that net issuance is zero.
In fact, it was below zero. The Fed bought more than gross issuance until mid April.
Case in point. If the US Treasury issued $1.5 trillion and the Fed bought $1.5 trillion, how much did investors and foreign governments have to absorb?
If the Fed bought more than total issuance, then there was a shortage of paper and yields would plunge to near zero.
I've been thinking a lot about how much is riding on the economy at the moment. Not Wall Street, but Main Street. Yada yada no savings lots of debt no prospects nothing to lose. We armchair warriors are one thing, but we too have lots to lose from a breakdown in social order - not just people parking in front of hydrants, but a real failure of the social contract. Each of us here with our high speed internet, full slate of vaccinations, 3 squares a day and all that, are 1 percenters ourselves, even though we need to work for a living and have plenty to worry about.
I'm all for picking
They've been ratcheting up fear all weekend, making the worst-case scenarios seem like the most-likely scenarios.
It's the same playbook they rant in 2009 to demand bailouts on casino capitalism's terms.
Eff 'em. I hope opponents to yet another corporate bailout hold the line.
Let their bondholders takeover Boeing and United and the rest of them.
Let there be markets.
Let there be capitalism.
Policy makers are clueless that Covid19 is not the cause of the crisis. It's just the catalyst that triggered the end of the 25 year credit bubble that was inevitable anyway. Had not the system been at the maximum fragility as a result of blowing the bubble to its actual limit, this crash would not have happened. Covid19 would have been a blip in the big scheme of things.
No. This crash is the end of bubble dynamics. It changes the way all of us think about the world.
And the first people to wake up to the change and react to it were the first leveraged long traders who started sell
Its a financial metric I invented.
It quantifies the inflationary gift transfer of debt value in terms of a stocks value.
Companies with high debt (long dated and fixed) have high IG numbers.
The value of the debt is inflated away and transferred as value to the shareholders.
This is currently 2% of debt per annum.
So for a ten year bond 20% of its value is going to be transferred to the shareholders.
But if inflation is 5% over the life of the bond 50% of its value gets transferred to shareholders.
So the IG number depends on four factors:
What's the difference between bitcoin and tesla?
What's the difference between cryto in general and stocks in general, other than those that pay dividends out of earnings?
What are dividends, you say?
Why, back in the 50s, that's why we bought stocks. To get the dividends. Nowadays, instead of paying dividends, companies buy back their stocks and that way they can pay the dividends to the executives who deserve them, rather than the ridiculous, do-nothing, stock holders. Besides, the buybacks make stocks go up. Dividends are so mid-century modern.
My superficial, uninvestigated, current working-hypothesis-since-breakfast-and-until-I-abandon-or-forget-it is that sharp declines in the cryptocurrency complex will be the bell rung at the top this cycle.
I'm not a crypto-skeptic, per se. But I have done my formal studies of money & sovereignty.
The gleeful (smug?) pile-in and emotional commitment to crypto (mainly by 20-something & 30-somethings?) is approaching "eyeball metric ca. 2000" analogous euphoridiocy(TM).
The hyper-liquidity afforded a market for something no one can see, few can cogently describe & expla
Yes, I'm with you Greg Fokker .. Over the last 20+ yrs I've worked my way through inheritances, superannuation, insurance payouts, etc. Just as well I own the roof over my head and have no debt or dependents. I'm not blaming the way the market performs: rather it's my own weaknesses and an over optimistic view of my abilities. I have worked hard to correct these and I think I see light at the end of the tunnel. Mind you I have said this before. In the meantime I pick up recyclables and cash them in, rent out rooms in my house on a casual basis and have a very modest lifestyle. I am elig
I believe my grandfather was also a wealthy man around the same time - also as the result of residential real estate. Eventually thereafter, however, according to my father born in 1923, the two would stand together in breadlines. Then, when things got worse, my father and his younger brother were shipped off to a pair of aunts who lived in the country, where he cleaned the chicken coup, but was properly fed. There's also an apocryphal story of his father piling the family into a car in the night and relocating from Detroit or Cleveland to Pittsburgh, as my grandfather sought to stay one ste
Blackrock is managing the fund. The trades will be executed, as usual, with Primary Dealers. The Fed put out a list of accepted counterparties, and at a quick glance, virtually all of them were Primary Dealers.
The direct outright purchases of individual corporates is a new wrinkle. Previously the Fed was only going to buy ETFs.
The size of these transactions is less than a rounding error relative to regular OMO.
While I think that a Green New Deal is a good idea in theory, and I greatly admire AOC, that bit you wrote about AOC having a proxy from the Treasury is loony tunes
This won't be useful to anyone for any purpose whatsoever but: not only do I not know where the market will go nor what to do about my various positions, commitments, bets and wagers, but I also have no clue about the likely or unlikely outcomes of the pandemic, the protests, the police, the social compact, international relations, my future as either a salaried employee, a consultant or a punter, the future of my neighbourhood, or whether things are about to get cataclysmically worse or exponentially better.
In fact, I don't know whether to shit or steal third.
All I know is that
I'm renting a car to drive down to Zadar today to look at an apartment by the sea. There are some amazing bargains. If I have to stay another month, which looks likely, I'd like to be seaside this time of year.
Little Croatia reported no new COVID19 cases yesterday and only 109 active cases nationwide. True? I don't know. But for the time being the country has removed virtually all restrictions on movement and business activity. I will continue to wear my hermetically sealed coffee filter mask with antimicrobial electrostatic cover while out and about.
So, they've apparently successfully publicly leveraged the private leverage that was previously leveraged against the massive public package of leverage from the last leveraged-leverage rescue.
I read that on "3,600 Seconds" last night, that Mr. Powell ("Do you mind if I call you 'an inter-generational bagman and an immoral piece-of-crap' as shorthand for 'Chairman'?") said we'll eventually pay the trillions in new loans that are being used to make whole the trillions in old loans, in a private-public swap that not even the devil would have entertained.
Lord knows (to borr
I still hope I can get to Poland.
I found the death record of my great grandfather in the town where I know that my grandfather was from. Also the marriage of great aunt, and birth of her first son, who was my mother's first cousin. They came to America. I remember him from childhood.
I also found records of the birth of my great grandmother and her siblings in another town. I found many family names of ancestors from 1900 going back to the 1830s, including Plomnik, Fuks, Walfisz, Finkielshteyn, and Kruk. But I'm now at a dead end. No more records on line.
I'd like to find
I've been doing a genealogical search all day, since I'm still planning on going to Poland. I found the death record of my great grandfather in the town where my grandfather was known to have lived before emigrating to the US. Exciting stuff. Looks like I'll be doing some grave hunting in Poland.
If they ever open for visits. Jeez.
Then I found the marriage record of my grandfather's sister, and the birth of my first cousin once removed. Wow.
OK. Back to woik.
I'm looking forward to the day when I can use my negative interest rate credit card to buy negatively priced gasoline. I'm guessing there would be supply issues and probably other issues, like widespread cannibalism, before then.
The first statement is regarding the cytokine storm I described above. He's talking about the same experiment I was. The virus SARS infects innate immune cells like dendritic cells which in turn over express signal molecules called cytokines. In vaccinated people the secretion of cytokines is too high and it makes the immune system overreact which in turn causes acute respiratory syndrome (ARDS) and lung injury resulting in death. Lung injury itself is a complex topic as in includes the renin–angiotensin system and activity of ACE2 as well and injury by heme groups (which wasn’t fully understo
Dumb luck defines so much of our era.
The entire VC industry around Sillycon Valley is up to its eyeballs and remarkably blind to survivor bias and dumb luck.
Instead, they think they're all effing geniuses.... Masters of the Future.
When, instead, one company with technology happens to make the contact with some pool of money that provides it an incremental advantage over someone else doing something similar without access to that critical pool at the critical juncture.
I pretty much hate everything at this juncture.
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This is a very helpful link - you can view all of US but the top drop down let's you look at numbers for your own state for bed, ICU and ventilator shortages. This is from WU and based on their model I would say this will start of noisy (wrong) but as time goes on will get more and more accurate. So you can get a pretty good idea if you should stay in your state if you are at risk. California is in good shape in terms of ICU/Beds but we need more than a thousand ventilators. New York needs to massively expand.
Jimi, Sandy et. al.
I'm so grateful and proud that you guys have come back and made such valued contributions to the discussion. I hope you stick around this time when the bull comes back, but if not, thank you anyway from the bottom of my heart.
Jimi- I'm really glad to hear that you and your family got that ordeal!
Now on with the show!
There's a huge difference between now and 2009. The Fed started direct QE in March 2009. It worked immediately.
It started direct QE this time in late September. It worked for a while but the bubble had become so brittle that it collapsed anyway.
That was at the end of a 30 month bear market. Psychologically the players were ready..
This on just started.
This one faces trillions in new Federal Debt. All other nations area also issuing massive amounts of debt to fund stimulus.
So there's QE, and maybe it's starting to work on a delayed basis.
Or maybe this is ju
"What concerns me most right now is how fast we can increase the number of ventilators and Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation devices (ECMO) in the next couple of months. A clinician is going to be less worried if the patient is dying of X than if the patient isn't able to breath and they can't do anything about it. We need oxygen. My second concern is PPE personal protective equipment for medical workers. If we have those two things ready I care a whole lot less about testing in term of immediate impact. "
I think SIP didn‘t realize that those links which we see in his post were not copied into the Stool Board. It is 6:50 a.m. in Europe right now. Guess once he woke up and logs into the Stool he will fix that. 🙂
btw Sandy, I like your insightfull very much. Thanks a lot! 🙂✌🏻
Not only "professionals". Also all those bloggers and "financial freedom with 30"nutcases, all those "Frugalists", Hipsters and all that other crap. They are all a sign of all 10 year long relentless bull market, which only saw minor downmove which were all corrected quickly by CB intervention. They are all playing moral hazard although they say only others do so. No. Every blogger who say that you only should buy the MSCI World every month with a fixed contribution plays moral hazard. No one on earth would have come up with such an idea in 1980 or 1981.
What we would need is a 10 year lo
The number of companies in danger of having their credit rating lowered is at a 10-year high, according to S&P Global Ratings. Among the companies drawing greater scrutiny are Chevron, Honda and the Walt Disney Co.
Holy shit, I locked in a refi over a week ago and have been watching mortgage rates. My lender is now quoting 4.75%. They were at 4% yesterday. 3.5% two days ago. 4% 3 days ago. 3% a week ago. Market is totally broken. The 10-year went up like 15-20 basis points today and the 30-year mortgage rate jumps nearly a full point.