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Showing content with the highest reputation since 03/16/2018 in Posts

  1. In short, no. You do not see armies of homeless people in Croatia like you do in US cities. Croatia is a poor country, but they seem to have ways of housing their poorest and most needy, unlike the US. I'm not familiar with their social services beyond their health care system, which I have paid to use on occasion. The facilities are right out of the socialist era, not palatial monuments to excess like in the US. But care seems good. Medical professionals are highly trained. They have modern equipment, and at least in Zagreb, there are plenty of medical specialists to treat particular di
    3 points
  2. AHA! Found the backup! Thank god had backed up my old computer to Google Drive before windoze self immolated.
    3 points
  3. Utter nonsense from people who have no idea what they're talking about. Gross issuance is irrelevant when the Fed (not to mention the ECB and BoJ) buys or finances all of it. It means that net issuance is zero. In fact, it was below zero. The Fed bought more than gross issuance until mid April. Case in point. If the US Treasury issued $1.5 trillion and the Fed bought $1.5 trillion, how much did investors and foreign governments have to absorb? Zero. If the Fed bought more than total issuance, then there was a shortage of paper and yields would plunge to near zero.
    3 points
  4. I've been thinking a lot about how much is riding on the economy at the moment. Not Wall Street, but Main Street. Yada yada no savings lots of debt no prospects nothing to lose. We armchair warriors are one thing, but we too have lots to lose from a breakdown in social order - not just people parking in front of hydrants, but a real failure of the social contract. Each of us here with our high speed internet, full slate of vaccinations, 3 squares a day and all that, are 1 percenters ourselves, even though we need to work for a living and have plenty to worry about. I'm all for picking
    3 points
  5. They've been ratcheting up fear all weekend, making the worst-case scenarios seem like the most-likely scenarios. It's the same playbook they rant in 2009 to demand bailouts on casino capitalism's terms. Eff 'em. I hope opponents to yet another corporate bailout hold the line. Let their bondholders takeover Boeing and United and the rest of them. Let there be markets. Let there be capitalism.
    3 points
  6. Policy makers are clueless that Covid19 is not the cause of the crisis. It's just the catalyst that triggered the end of the 25 year credit bubble that was inevitable anyway. Had not the system been at the maximum fragility as a result of blowing the bubble to its actual limit, this crash would not have happened. Covid19 would have been a blip in the big scheme of things. No. This crash is the end of bubble dynamics. It changes the way all of us think about the world. And the first people to wake up to the change and react to it were the first leveraged long traders who started sell
    3 points
  7. Yes, I'm with you Greg Fokker .. Over the last 20+ yrs I've worked my way through inheritances, superannuation, insurance payouts, etc. Just as well I own the roof over my head and have no debt or dependents. I'm not blaming the way the market performs: rather it's my own weaknesses and an over optimistic view of my abilities. I have worked hard to correct these and I think I see light at the end of the tunnel. Mind you I have said this before. In the meantime I pick up recyclables and cash them in, rent out rooms in my house on a casual basis and have a very modest lifestyle. I am elig
    2 points
  8. I believe my grandfather was also a wealthy man around the same time - also as the result of residential real estate. Eventually thereafter, however, according to my father born in 1923, the two would stand together in breadlines. Then, when things got worse, my father and his younger brother were shipped off to a pair of aunts who lived in the country, where he cleaned the chicken coup, but was properly fed. There's also an apocryphal story of his father piling the family into a car in the night and relocating from Detroit or Cleveland to Pittsburgh, as my grandfather sought to stay one ste
    2 points
  9. Hey there,it's been forever..... Hope everyone has been good.🤑
    2 points
  10. 2 points
  11. Blackrock is managing the fund. The trades will be executed, as usual, with Primary Dealers. The Fed put out a list of accepted counterparties, and at a quick glance, virtually all of them were Primary Dealers. The direct outright purchases of individual corporates is a new wrinkle. Previously the Fed was only going to buy ETFs. The size of these transactions is less than a rounding error relative to regular OMO. While I think that a Green New Deal is a good idea in theory, and I greatly admire AOC, that bit you wrote about AOC having a proxy from the Treasury is loony tunes
    2 points
  12. This won't be useful to anyone for any purpose whatsoever but: not only do I not know where the market will go nor what to do about my various positions, commitments, bets and wagers, but I also have no clue about the likely or unlikely outcomes of the pandemic, the protests, the police, the social compact, international relations, my future as either a salaried employee, a consultant or a punter, the future of my neighbourhood, or whether things are about to get cataclysmically worse or exponentially better. In fact, I don't know whether to shit or steal third. All I know is that
    2 points
  13. I'm renting a car to drive down to Zadar today to look at an apartment by the sea. There are some amazing bargains. If I have to stay another month, which looks likely, I'd like to be seaside this time of year. Little Croatia reported no new COVID19 cases yesterday and only 109 active cases nationwide. True? I don't know. But for the time being the country has removed virtually all restrictions on movement and business activity. I will continue to wear my hermetically sealed coffee filter mask with antimicrobial electrostatic cover while out and about.
    2 points
  14. So, they've apparently successfully publicly leveraged the private leverage that was previously leveraged against the massive public package of leverage from the last leveraged-leverage rescue. I read that on "3,600 Seconds" last night, that Mr. Powell ("Do you mind if I call you 'an inter-generational bagman and an immoral piece-of-crap' as shorthand for 'Chairman'?") said we'll eventually pay the trillions in new loans that are being used to make whole the trillions in old loans, in a private-public swap that not even the devil would have entertained. LIAR! Lord knows (to borr
    2 points
  15. I still hope I can get to Poland. I found the death record of my great grandfather in the town where I know that my grandfather was from. Also the marriage of great aunt, and birth of her first son, who was my mother's first cousin. They came to America. I remember him from childhood. I also found records of the birth of my great grandmother and her siblings in another town. I found many family names of ancestors from 1900 going back to the 1830s, including Plomnik, Fuks, Walfisz, Finkielshteyn, and Kruk. But I'm now at a dead end. No more records on line. I'd like to find
    2 points
  16. I've been doing a genealogical search all day, since I'm still planning on going to Poland. I found the death record of my great grandfather in the town where my grandfather was known to have lived before emigrating to the US. Exciting stuff. Looks like I'll be doing some grave hunting in Poland. If they ever open for visits. Jeez. Then I found the marriage record of my grandfather's sister, and the birth of my first cousin once removed. Wow. OK. Back to woik.
    2 points
  17. I'm looking forward to the day when I can use my negative interest rate credit card to buy negatively priced gasoline. I'm guessing there would be supply issues and probably other issues, like widespread cannibalism, before then.
    2 points
  18. The first statement is regarding the cytokine storm I described above. He's talking about the same experiment I was. The virus SARS infects innate immune cells like dendritic cells which in turn over express signal molecules called cytokines. In vaccinated people the secretion of cytokines is too high and it makes the immune system overreact which in turn causes acute respiratory syndrome (ARDS) and lung injury resulting in death. Lung injury itself is a complex topic as in includes the renin–angiotensin system and activity of ACE2 as well and injury by heme groups (which wasn’t fully understo
    2 points
  19. Dumb luck defines so much of our era. The entire VC industry around Sillycon Valley is up to its eyeballs and remarkably blind to survivor bias and dumb luck. Instead, they think they're all effing geniuses.... Masters of the Future. When, instead, one company with technology happens to make the contact with some pool of money that provides it an incremental advantage over someone else doing something similar without access to that critical pool at the critical juncture. I pretty much hate everything at this juncture.
    2 points
  20. this looks bad. largest shale company in the us is bankrupt. "Whiting Petroleum Corp., facing more than a quarter-billion dollar debt maturity, filed for bankruptcy Wednesday"
    2 points
  21. Announcing the new Dual Purpose Cornahohovirus Facemask Now available at your local WalMart, Target, Walgreens, CVS, DM, Mueller, or BIPA Washable, reusable, dual purpose! Just $9.00 per pack of 3. Get yours today. Stay safe! Insure social distance. If you're wearing this, no one will come near you for sure. Get yours today! Dual Purpose Cornahohovirus Facemask Act now while supplies last! Convenient side pouch for hands free cell phone use.
    2 points
  22. This is a very helpful link - you can view all of US but the top drop down let's you look at numbers for your own state for bed, ICU and ventilator shortages. This is from WU and based on their model I would say this will start of noisy (wrong) but as time goes on will get more and more accurate. So you can get a pretty good idea if you should stay in your state if you are at risk. California is in good shape in terms of ICU/Beds but we need more than a thousand ventilators. New York needs to massively expand. http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
    2 points
  23. Jimi, Sandy et. al. I'm so grateful and proud that you guys have come back and made such valued contributions to the discussion. I hope you stick around this time when the bull comes back, but if not, thank you anyway from the bottom of my heart. Jimi- I'm really glad to hear that you and your family got that ordeal! Now on with the show!
    2 points
  24. There's a huge difference between now and 2009. The Fed started direct QE in March 2009. It worked immediately. It started direct QE this time in late September. It worked for a while but the bubble had become so brittle that it collapsed anyway. That was at the end of a 30 month bear market. Psychologically the players were ready.. This on just started. This one faces trillions in new Federal Debt. All other nations area also issuing massive amounts of debt to fund stimulus. So there's QE, and maybe it's starting to work on a delayed basis. Or maybe this is ju
    2 points
  25. Herd immunity. Is that like... when everybody is dead?
    2 points
  26. Looks like yesterday marked a relative low. My gut is uncanny, if only I could find a way to actually trust it enough to trade.
    2 points
  27. "What concerns me most right now is how fast we can increase the number of ventilators and Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation devices (ECMO) in the next couple of months. A clinician is going to be less worried if the patient is dying of X than if the patient isn't able to breath and they can't do anything about it. We need oxygen. My second concern is PPE personal protective equipment for medical workers. If we have those two things ready I care a whole lot less about testing in term of immediate impact. " Truth.
    2 points
  28. The Dow futures have now lost 1600 points from the overnight high after the Fed bought $67 billion. This shit is starting to scare me.
    2 points
  29. Doc would morph into a Permabull 😂
    2 points
  30. I think SIP didn‘t realize that those links which we see in his post were not copied into the Stool Board. It is 6:50 a.m. in Europe right now. Guess once he woke up and logs into the Stool he will fix that. 🙂 btw Sandy, I like your insightfull very much. Thanks a lot! 🙂✌🏻
    2 points
  31. They can guarantee nominal value but they sure as hell can't guarantee purchasing power. The inflation is dead thing will be like the death of stocks in 1982.
    2 points
  32. I swear it feels like we're headed for hyperinflation.
    2 points
  33. How many times do they have to die here anyway? Admittedly the patient is looking a little pale.
    2 points
  34. If this is a bottom I should write naked calls in aboriginal survival workshops.
    2 points
  35. Flint knapping will prove a useful skill during the rewilding.
    2 points
  36. I'm old enough to remember 2,400 on the S&P.
    2 points
  37. Gold shall be the tell. Once it reverses, some sort of bottom will be in place, because the liquidations will have abated.
    2 points
  38. Absolutely, positively, definitely, the bottom. RIght here.
    2 points
  39. From Chris Whalen Morgan Stanley CDS spread
    2 points
  40. Not only "professionals". Also all those bloggers and "financial freedom with 30"nutcases, all those "Frugalists", Hipsters and all that other crap. They are all a sign of all 10 year long relentless bull market, which only saw minor downmove which were all corrected quickly by CB intervention. They are all playing moral hazard although they say only others do so. No. Every blogger who say that you only should buy the MSCI World every month with a fixed contribution plays moral hazard. No one on earth would have come up with such an idea in 1980 or 1981. What we would need is a 10 year lo
    2 points
  41. THE FED RECAPITALISED WALL STREET [alternative title: Not a Care in the World]. No good crisis should go to waste. Surprised there has'nt been more discussion of the CARE Act which sets aside $454 Billion to bail out wall street. The Fed will print $454 billion in electronic dollars. It will then buy $454 Billion of US treasuries. The US Treasury will then give the money back to the FED. The Fed will then put it in a SIV which it can leverage 10 to 1. The SIV will then buy all the toxic crap from Wall Street presumably at 100 cents in the dollar. Th
    1 point
  42. They're leveraging an exclusive "Janet Yellen Centerfold" issue....
    1 point
  43. The number of companies in danger of having their credit rating lowered is at a 10-year high, according to S&P Global Ratings. Among the companies drawing greater scrutiny are Chevron, Honda and the Walt Disney Co. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/record-government-and-corporate-debt-risks-tipping-point-after-pandemic-passes/ar-BB12QriZ
    1 point
  44. Don't forget the heart attack, the heart pump, waking up during intubation, coding in surgery. All good stuff.
    1 point
  45. You know the old saying. "Buy the rumor; sell the effing pandemic that is killing thousands and has the western economies in stand still...."
    1 point
  46. 1 point
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