I'm renting a car to drive down to Zadar today to look at an apartment by the sea. There are some amazing bargains. If I have to stay another month, which looks likely, I'd like to be seaside this time of year.
Little Croatia reported no new COVID19 cases yesterday and only 109 active cases nationwide. True? I don't know. But for the time being the country has removed virtually all restrictions on movement and business activity. I will continue to wear my hermetically sealed coffee filter mask with antimicrobial electrostatic cover while out and about.
So, they've apparently successfully publicly leveraged the private leverage that was previously leveraged against the massive public package of leverage from the last leveraged-leverage rescue.
I read that on "3,600 Seconds" last night, that Mr. Powell ("Do you mind if I call you 'an inter-generational bagman and an immoral piece-of-crap' as shorthand for 'Chairman'?") said we'll eventually pay the trillions in new loans that are being used to make whole the trillions in old loans, in a private-public swap that not even the devil would have entertained.
Lord knows (to borrow a phrase) what sort of "shithole country" these abhorrent scum intend to leave.
They'll all just righteously jet off to their compounds.
I still hope I can get to Poland.
I found the death record of my great grandfather in the town where I know that my grandfather was from. Also the marriage of great aunt, and birth of her first son, who was my mother's first cousin. They came to America. I remember him from childhood.
I also found records of the birth of my great grandmother and her siblings in another town. I found many family names of ancestors from 1900 going back to the 1830s, including Plomnik, Fuks, Walfisz, Finkielshteyn, and Kruk. But I'm now at a dead end. No more records on line.
I'd like to find the birth records of my grandparents. Perhaps they exist in the dusty basement of the town hall or some other repository, but many were destroyed. One of the towns was 90% destroyed as it was the site of a massive battle between the Nazis and Soviet Army, a meeting of two great evils. Were the Nazis worse? Yes. Doesn't mitigate how bad the Soviets were.
Great Grandpa Fuks came to America and was a socialist rabble rouser giving pro-union speeches in the early days of the organzed labor movement in America. The apple doesn't fall far from the tree.
The great grandmother stayed behind and remarried. Family grapevine is that she and her siblings moved to Palestine before the Nazis came. I probably have half-cousins in Israel. Found death records of some with my most direct and rare family name, who were likely children of my great grandfather's siblings in Warsaw 1939-40s. The Nazis got them. This is the first time I've found likely direct familial connections to Holocaust victims in Poland.
I was supposed to be there for the anniversary of the Warsaw Ghetto uprising. Sad I missed that. Hope to have another opportunity.
I don't know why I wrote this here.
I think about how bad we all have it with this pandemic.
Compared to what we're used to.
Then I think about what people went through in WW2, the Great Depression, the Holocaust, and the Pogroms in Russia and Poland. For many peoples in the world, peace and prosperity are relatively fleeting luxuries. It's true even for those who've enjoyed it in recent times. We only need to look back a generation or two, and it wasn't so good.
But we survive. It may take awhile, and some of us may not live to see it, but a time will come when everything will be alright again for a while. Unfortunately humans seem to lack the capacity to keep it that way.
Crash was after the election, I think it will happen before the election. Fed is so powerful that it can decide who can win and will crash the market. Another 2-3 months of slow grinding up should give right shoulder then Fed will do a drain, Crash is on the card.
I Blame the Fed, They print and make Rich get Richer and Poor get poorer. Poor has nothing to loose and will vote for wrong people.
If there wasn't inequality due to Fed pumping then Trump or any other idiot won't win.
You watch and see what fed do before the Election... Market Crash for sure.
THE FED RECAPITALISED WALL STREET
[alternative title: Not a Care in the World].
No good crisis should go to waste.
Surprised there has'nt been more discussion of the CARE Act which sets aside $454 Billion to bail out wall street.
The Fed will print $454 billion in electronic dollars.
It will then buy $454 Billion of US treasuries.
The US Treasury will then give the money back to the FED.
The Fed will then put it in a SIV which it can leverage 10 to 1.
The SIV will then buy all the toxic crap from Wall Street presumably at 100 cents in the dollar.
This will effectively recapitalise Wall street.
Im sure this is already reflected in the stock prices of the Wall Street Banks.
SIVs were also used back in 2008 when the Maiden Lane SIVs were set up to handle the toxic waste.
But the dollars this time round are so much bigger.
Just a reminder. Musk's Space X launch of astronauts to the ISS is still on for Tuesday at 4:30PM. It might mean nothing but I think it might be a hook for a mega bullish faux patriotic launch for stocks as well. I doubt I'm the only one looking for a hook on this and as well advertised probably won't follow a script.
THE BIG TELL
Using poker analogies for asset markets is very useful.
On 16 September 2019 occurred the big tell.
That was when the repo market rate hit 10%.
Where were all the mainstream financial press articles about this.
Missing in action.
The Fed promptly buried the signal under the noise of $500 billion of REPO printed from thin air.
Setting up the mother of all Santa rallies.
After all this liquidity flood had to go some where - Into an already over priced stock market.
Which I predicted on this board.
A lot of money to make a very inconvenient fact/signal go away!!!!!!!!!!!!
But the virus uncovered the signal again.
So now the Fed is spending trillions to make it go away again.
But it will come back in the form of inflation.
EACH SUCCESSIVE FED/TREASURY BAIL OUT COSTS MORE
This bail out will cost real money.
The 2008 bail out didnt cost that much in the end.
After recoveries probably only $100 Billion.
This one will cost trillions.
And cause significant inflation.
M'wife & youngest have an appointment tomorrow to get an antibody test.
Been checking every morning to see if I can find a place that features only either the Abbott or Roche test.
I'm hoping to have found such a place.
Meanwhile, this was in the NYT this morning:
Describes our kid's symptoms on March 3rd to a tee. We went to ER because we thought it was appendicitis, and one surgeon said they were going to operate him within the hour... only to have a second surgeon decide, "No."
He was in so much pain, they put him on a morphine drip overnight.
I put it at just above 50-50 that he tests positive for antibodies. Not sure about my wife, but she overnighted with him in ER, ergo, she is getting tested. If they both come back positive, my older son & I will get tested.
Have I ranted here about federal biodefense spend since 9/11?
When everything started coming unglued, and Kushner talked about "our stockpiles, not the states' stockpiles," it made me rather cross.
When I rant about California going its own course, it's because of the vast value earned here & then sent to DC for decades that was then apparently subsequently pissed away. Pandemic response benefits from the highest available level of organized response. I simply would never have expected that soon after the West Coast closed that the Federal government would not organize a country-wide lockdown with the goal of curtailing spread.
Instead, states were left to make their own decisions and a patchwork of varying responses assured that the response of "the nation" (whatever the eff that is at this juncture, given the failure) would assure further spread and further death and inevitably greater economic calamity than if there'd been a coordinated and coherent response. All the while the president dressed down governors for not having sufficient resources, and not having stockpiled for the eventuality.
When federal authorities thereby #fail when that authority is available to confer its greatest benefit, why the ever-loving crap should it be unconditionally and perpetually afforded?
Because of a flag and an anthem and a federal reserve note? We have a flag with a bear on it, and we can write songs here, and we can bitcoin our economy.
Ignore whether or not COVID-19 is the result of a bioweapons program run amok or afoul in Wuhan.
I'd always been under the quaint illusion that after 9/11, we'd taken steps to prepare AS A NATION against intentional release of a biological agent.
If we had, where was the coordinated federal response?
If we hadn't, where'd the effing biodefense spending go?
The market went up because dealers had cash and were marking up stocks. They may have planted the story for marketing and distribution. Or they may have just found a convenient excuse. But yes, PR is a contributory factor in a compex marketing and distribution business. Had it not been this story, they would have found a different one. It usually begins with the words "Hopes that..." or "Relief that..." yadda yadda wing wang.
The insider dealing and revolving doors is so conflicted in this industry it is beyond belief. However, it pales in comparison to the secret committees at the National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurty (NSABB) that vote on Enhanced Potential Pandemic Pathogen (PPP) and Gain-of-Function (GOF) research and fund labs like the Wuhan lab from smoke field back rooms knowing full well the public if they new about this research would never allow it. Many of these projects in in breach of HHS P3HO policy. And if you even mention what I just said you will get banned from major journals like Nature because they are all in on this - huge amounts of money in it.
There's something about Nice that makes you forget how terrible things are everywhere else. First, it's beautiful, and second, people are focused on enjoying life. Of course, the French always complain about it, but they don't know how good they have it.
I'm so angry.
I've been telling my liberal Berkeley friends for about 5 years that we need massive Federalism.
Deep, DC-authority obliterating states' rights.
This makes them uncomfortable, because they think of "States' rights" as a bogeyman of racial injustice. And they want Giant DC to make Green Deals that solve all problems.
But DC is now just another winner-take-all POS casino game... passing incoherently from administration to administration.
There isn't any pretense of responsibly shepherding the Trésor. It's just another bank to heist.
And the thievery becomes ever-more shameless.
In 2008/09, Paulson and his effing ilk paraded the worst-case scenarios as the -most-likely case scenarios, and made Congress bailout any & all.
Powell doesn't even have to explain himself to anyone anymore.
Sure, he'll go on "60 Minutes" for the "panem" portion of bread & circus... but he doesn't even need to try to hide the game any longer.
Same goes for the POS Congress... when does anyone ever pretend any longer that spending in the public's name, and running up debt endlessly in the public's name, should be done with some measure of solemn fiduciary responsibility?
And then there's Trump... the single greatest/worst example in human history of a man failing upward.
Whatever... I increasingly want to be done with "the American experiment," because it's become nothing more than a transfer-scheme. Carve up the effing nation, and the rump can take the yahoos and the imbeciles.
Give me California and its hard-working immigrants and abundant human capital.
DC can go to hell.
Today's Sesame Street is brought to you by the letter W. So if we have essentially gone nowhere since April 29 on ES, why has this rangebound market felt so relentlessly up to me? Maybe it's buried under the big W?
There'd be a lot of **BEEPS** as Doc cursed his way through the episode.
Powell would say something dishonest or stupid.
Doc would lose his mind and start hollering.
Stoolies would cheer their televisions.
My wife's sister says things are slow & boring in ER down there. But then, she did residency in East LA where she saw lots of action.
Distance-learning means surrendering the Mac to the kid....
5 states just asked for a trillion dollars says Newson. So we'll need 10 trillion to bail out all 50 states. And I didn't even realize I had been smoking crack before his speech today but that's the only thing that could explain it.
NEW: Without federal support, states will be forced to make impossible decisions. Today—CA, OR, WA, NV, CO, and our legislative leaders have joined together to ask the federal government for $1 trillion to protect our schools, public health, and public safety services.
I have not looked at the market since it opened because I've been working on this.
LEE'S FREE THINKING
USA COVID19 Weekend Case and Death Count 5/8/20-5/10/20
by Lee Adler • May 11, 2020 • 0 Comments
The trends for the nation as a whole looked good as of Sunday May, 10. 20,329 new cases were reported Sunday. That’s down from 27,348, the previous Sunday. 25,524 cases were reported Saturday, May 9, down from 29,744 the previous Saturday. But unfortunately, that’s not the whole story.
According to this count the number of cases worldwide has passed 4 million.
In the US and Western Europe I multiply that by 20 to account for light and asymptomatic cases. For the rest of the world whatever the numbers reported they must be dwarfed by the reality. The reported numbers are of use mostly to judge the rate of change in infections but even that is going to be skewed because almost every government in the world has a thumb on the scale to drive the numbers down.
So let me make a WAG and say the total number of cases worldwide is 200 million. That's 2.5% of the world population.
Library's cafes and gyms are interesting but it is workplaces where the social/political/economic story is going to be told. When a few billion people are made aware that going to work risks killing them or their family or friends I'm thinking this is not going to make workers think of the company first. It will make people question their work as what defines them. This is not bullish for the corporate model.
I'm not sure of my points exactly but whatever we have seen so far is nothing compared to what's coming.
On May 18 Western Australians entering Phase 2 of emerging from lock-down. For me it means the library, gym and local cafes will be open. Regional travel is still limited, going from 13 regions down to 4.
Phase 3 will commence June 15, all going well...🙂
Basically it is important to make sure what we talk about. Do we talk about making money in tbe stock market or do we talk about being right and reasonable.
Let‘s take Noland as an example. If you go back to 1998 for example he was right and everything he wrote made sense. But you can virtually feel between the lines that he thought the asian currency crisis was THE top. It was not. I‘m quite sure that during the aftermath of the SLA crisis he was bearish throughout the whole 90‘s.
So again, it makes sense what he writes and so, but if you would have give him 1 million in 1990 he would have all lost it by 2000.
I often think about the famous „Club of Rome“ quote from 1974. It marked the low which was never seen again. It seems some perma bears were members of the Club...
Most of the perma bears did never trade or had any stake in the stock market. They don‘t know how it feels if you lose 30, 50, 60%... I would like to know how their perfect world would look like. Sometimes I think they just wish the time back when they lived in an all-white suburban neighbourhood in the 50s, mum was at home, daddy had a well paid job and just bought his new station waggon. That‘s it. Childhood memories.
A note about Gold:
given the circumstances we are in right now Gold should be much much higher, far above 2000, maybe even flirting with 5k or so. The fact that it is even FAR away from seeing its ATH in USD should make Gold bulls very nervous.
Gold would anticipate inflation, it would not simply REFLECT it.
Gold says: There will be no inflation.
„Asset bubble shows that there‘s inflation!“ I say: Which asset bubble? There are 5 stocks which go up and the whole world hides in them. The rest just prevented falling totally apart.
What really happened in March? We don‘t know yet exactlly. My theory is that it was all about Blackrock. That one can‘t go bust or the whole world collapses. You have to realize that everyone on earth has the MSCI World in some way in his portfolio. Every 401k is constructed that way. It is all about them.
The introduction of the 401k‘s and the introduction of negative interest rates were one of the biggest financial policy mistakes mankind has ever done,
Generally speaking one has to keep in mind:
The „market“ has no morale, no empathy or whatsoever. It is so to say in its core facistoid and follows „survival of the fittest“. In such a system it is the inner logic that the system itself gives a damn who dies. The system would care if 20 million well educated folks between 25 and 45 would die, or if millions of the youth would die. Right now we do not see this happening. Not even close. We are MILES away from that in fact.
You have to think about how a Goldman trader thinks. He gives a shit about Africa. He does not think about poor blacks in Louisiana. For him, as long as enough dough in his acciunt, the world is bright. He drives the market , supported by the FED. Not Noam Chomsky. Unfortunately.
Most likely the news flow regarding Corona will get better and better in the comming months. So the market will have an upside bias. This can be destroyed if the FED would stop supporting it. Will they do it? That is the only question which matters.
Less Support from the Fed Forces Re-evaluation of Stock Market
2 - TECHNICAL TRADER MAY 4, 2020
I am rescinding the comments I made last week about the long term trend. The Fed’s commitment to maintaining a bullish trend in stocks is now in doubt, and the long term indicators on the market index charts are ambiguous.
The outlook is rife with uncertainty. We don’t know when or if the Fed will re-deploy its tactical carpet bombing of deeply embedded, indigenous bearish forces.
It’s like the Viet Nam war. The Fed has overwhelming firepower, but it may not be committed to using it because of the astronomical long term cost fighting an entrenched enemy. We need to watch to the technical indicators closely to try to determine what each side is doing and will do, and which might have the upper hand.
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Federal Budget Deficit Hit A Trillion A Month
1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER MAY 3, 2020
The Federal deficit hit $1 trillion in April. That’s a cool 1,500% increase year to year. That’s for one month.
This is based on the April 30 Daily Treasury Statement month to date totals. It is an estimate based on my simple subtraction of outlays from revenues. It is not official, and the official number may differ when the Monthly Treasury Statement is released on May 13.
Still, a trillion, is a trillion. And the final, official number should be in this ballpark. This is an increase of $941 billion from the April 2019 deficit. Keep in mind that back in the “good old days, before the 2017 tax cut and spending increase, April typically saw a surplus. So even before the pandemic, these numbers were bad.
Obviously, this blowout is due to the Pandemic Pandemonium Panic Relief Programs spending. But it’s also partly due to the plunge in revenue, and embedded increases in regular budgetary spending.
Here are the current horrible numbers, along with the immediate outlook, and what it means for stocks and bonds.
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Look Out! The Fed is Tight Again!
1 - LIQUIDITY TRADER MAY 1, 2020
The Fed just posted how much help it will give the market next week and son of a gun! It’s cutting again. The implications of this are yooge! Apparently Jaysus saves not! At least not the stock market. Doesn’t he care? Is this ritual sacrifice?
Here’s what you need to do now to protect yourself from Jaysus Powell’s Revenge.
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Utter nonsense from people who have no idea what they're talking about. Gross issuance is irrelevant when the Fed (not to mention the ECB and BoJ) buys or finances all of it. It means that net issuance is zero.
In fact, it was below zero. The Fed bought more than gross issuance until mid April.
Case in point. If the US Treasury issued $1.5 trillion and the Fed bought $1.5 trillion, how much did investors and foreign governments have to absorb?
If the Fed bought more than total issuance, then there was a shortage of paper and yields would plunge to near zero.
Which is exactly what happened.
This kind of garbage is exactly what Wall Street wants to dish out to keep the public befuddled.
The investing public does not matter. Only the securities dealers and their financiers the central banks, matter.