Basically it is important to make sure what we talk about. Do we talk about making money in tbe stock market or do we talk about being right and reasonable.
Let‘s take Noland as an example. If you go back to 1998 for example he was right and everything he wrote made sense. But you can virtually feel between the lines that he thought the asian currency crisis was THE top. It was not. I‘m quite sure that during the aftermath of the SLA crisis he was bearish throughout the whole 90‘s.
So again, it makes sense what he writes and so, but if you would have give him 1 million in 1990 he would have all lost it by 2000.
I often think about the famous „Club of Rome“ quote from 1974. It marked the low which was never seen again. It seems some perma bears were members of the Club...
Most of the perma bears did never trade or had any stake in the stock market. They don‘t know how it feels if you lose 30, 50, 60%... I would like to know how their perfect world would look like. Sometimes I think they just wish the time back when they lived in an all-white suburban neighbourhood in the 50s, mum was at home, daddy had a well paid job and just bought his new station waggon. That‘s it. Childhood memories.