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Showing content with the highest reputation since 07/13/2022 in all areas

  1. Sandy Beach mentioned money market funds. Some interesting data here. Not as much growth as you'd think. Retail funds only up $85 billion since December per FRED data, and the OFR shows a persistent decline in government MMFs over the same time frame. This includes institutional MMFs, which are twice the size of retail funds. ICI has granular weekly and monthly data. It shows Retail funds up only $40 billion since March, when short term rates began to rise sharply. All of the gain was in non government MMFs. Government MMFs declined. Another OFR data set shows how the Treasury's T-bill paydowns forced the MMFs out of their T-bill holdings. That money went straight into the Fed's RRP fund for MMFs. MMFs are really a sideshow to the main event, the Primary Dealers. That's what I focus on in my research. They're the house. They run the markets, normally on behalf of the Fed. But the narcissists at the Fed no longer have any use for their strawmen dealers. So the Fed has abandoned them to the whims of their institutional customers. The Bond Rally That Fooled The Majority And Didn’t Help Dealers
    2 points
  2. I bonds are paying 10% interest, semi-annual compounding. available at treasurydirect.
    1 point
  3. “It makes the notion that they are ‘neutral’ comical…. no one likes to see a central bank catching up frantically…. This is bad news foe the Fed’s credibility.”
    1 point
  4. Lee Adler, the most trusted name in liquidity.
    1 point
  5. I have embellished the above post here: https://wallstreetexaminer.com/2022/07/why-isnt-everyone-rushing-into-money-market-funds/
    1 point
  6. Normally on this site, the daily views on a thread vary inversely with the market trend. The highest numbers coincide with bottoms, and the lowest with tops. I went back a year and yesterday's volume was the lowest in that time. No other trading day was close. So by that measure we're at the top of another rally that fools the majority. Although you couldn't tell by the hourly chart of the 24 hour ES, S&P fugutures. First I'll start with the 5 hour bars. Looks like a consolidation pounding away at the downtrend.. Zooming in to the two hour bars, looks like it might be a top, but the right side peaks and valleys are higher than the left. That's been a bullish tell for at least a dozen years. ' Course, I don't think we're in a bull market any more, Toto. So maybe the lower highs and lows on the right side of a pattern are no longer a requirement. Finally, our usual look at the one hour bars because we focus on useless minutiae on this thread. Useless, that is, except for day traders. You don't need to be a genius to see that 3943 and 3938 are critical sport levels. If broken, they'll trigger a little selling. And that will really look like a top to most traders. Then they'll sell it down to 3924 and... the Fed resubstantiation dipshit rally will kick off. Meanwhile, resistance is up there at 3985 and 4013. If they don't clear those, nothing has happened yet. And if they do, the measured move objective would be around 4075. Now, stay tuned for tomorrow's Fed Dog and Pony Circus, led by ringmaster, Jaysus Lord Powell. Swing Trade Screens – Surprise, Surprise – A Few Shorts July 25, 2022 Gonna Take You Higher, But Not Too Much July 25, 2022 Catch a Falling Knife July 19, 2022 Survive the Meat Grinder and Market Will Gladly Pay Us Back on Tuesday July 18, 2022 As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022 Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022 Recession? What Recession? July 5, 2022 Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
    1 point
  7. I'm not sure "MILF" means the same thing in German that it does in 'merican.
    1 point
  8. Walmart drops s stinkbomb in the afterlife
    1 point
  9. Chart lines rely on Chuck Norris for their support. Resistance to him is futile.
    1 point
  10. Well, I guess we know where the sport lines are.
    1 point
  11. Chuck Norris doesn’t follow the trend when trading: he dictates it.
    1 point
  12. When it's time for the Boogie Man to get some sleep the last thing he does is check under the bed, for Chuck Norris.
    1 point
  13. Chuck Norris doesn't do pushups. Chuck Norris pushes the earth, down.
    1 point
  14. Chuck Norris doesn't use clocks or watches. Chuck Norris decides what time it is.
    1 point
  15. Now you have a higher high on the double head, and a higher high on the right shoulder. In the 12 years of QE, that was never bearish. Not once. Now???
    1 point
  16. Chuck Norris never needs to fight the Fed.
    1 point
  17. Oh mygawd. Is it Topo Giggio time?
    1 point
  18. While we wait does anyone want to hear my Chuck Norris jokes?
    1 point
  19. The 13 week bill rate has gone from 0 to 2.5 The 1 year has gone from 0 to 3.15 The 10 year has gone from 0.5 to 3.5 before pulling back to 3.0. These are the largest, fastest rises in history. It has been a draconian tightening and it will get even worse as the Fed remains massively behind the curve. And the market goes tro lo lo.
    1 point
  20. The Fed has lost any semblance of the appearance that it controls interest rates. This is abject failure. It's not only severely behind the inflation curve, it can't even keep up with market interest rates. The Fed is a joke, incompetent, delusional, and dangerous, piling one bad policy on top of another in its kowtowing to its banker clients. Liquidity Trader- Money Trends How Fed and Treasury policy, Primary Dealers, real time Federal tax collections, foreign central banks, US banking system, and other factors that affect market liquidity, interact to drive the financial markets. Focus on trend direction of US bonds and stocks. Resulting market strategy and tactical ideas. 4-5 in depth reports each month. Click here to subscribe. 90 day risk free trial!
    1 point
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