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Yes Potatohead, they will refund you in Dogecoin.

On the way home. Walked down the Neirsche path. Resolved. Never again! And never ever ever walk up! Unless you're 25 years old.

I shit you not. This is what I'm looking at as I eat lunch at L'Chevre d'Or.

I just ran downstairs to get a burger and this is the scene out front.

Moved some of it. Not all of it. Too much, unfortunately. Coulda shoulda woulda. My bank has a euro deposit account, but the haircut is obscene. I should have opened an account at Interactive Brokers, deposited the doodahs there and made the switch there. Would cost next to nothing. Thing is, I despise Thomsass Petersflysopen, and I didn wanna do it. Didnwanna do it. So I paid through the nose instead. The chunk I left in doodahs will be moved to an IB Yourapeein account that I open here. Probably will open the account next week now that I will have a permanent address Tamara.

The euro has landed.

From my perspective. It's just a continuation. 2000 never ended. I traded each leg of the crash in the Nasdaq on this very forum. From top to bottom. I will mention...my was handle was "Ora(c)l(e) of Omaha" before Doc kindly changed it for me. I showed up shortly after the site started. I think there were about 30 guys here when I showed up and that swelled up another 100 or so shortly after and just slowly expanded from there. While on that topic... Where's that tip button Doc? I remember being able to PP you some tip money now and then? Is the "Support your Local Stool Board" the right button to punch? Bread and pastries aren't free in France are they? TCG

Then of course there's always the possibility that everything I say today will turn to shit. 😱😄😄😄

Yeah, yeah. Flattery will get you everywhere. 😄😄 Ciao and bonne nuit, tout le monde!

PH... I'm not sure which call that was. Always...looking forward. Never looking back. I spoke to Doc when I returned to CapitalStool... I'm dealing with several health issues and might be in and out for the next few months, back and forth for awhile, not to mention...I expect gold and silver to be slow for a little while longer. When they do pick up...I'll be moving over to Stool's Gold, I'll have a prior student or two join me...I believe both are/were posters from the previous era. 2002-2010. Please make sure to join us... Best, TCG oh...and... I said I'd drop in when I consider the timing to be "in a timely manner". Today...is a timely manner. I've been doing my best to be subtle, but I think I may be too subtle at times.

it's an orderly decline, considering we're experiencing the dissolution of humanity.

Are you making fun of my charts? 😄😄😄

Twelve hunnert pints of light on the Dow.

Yes, but in percentage terms, the dot-com claps was much bigger.

The idea that the market is celebrating the re-appointment of Jerome Powell is sickening, disgusting, and disheartening. The man is a financial war criminal, who presided over, supported, enabled, and promoted the greatest moral hazard bubble in history. It encouraged financial chicanenery, discouraged real investment in productive capacity and labor, and punished hard work, honest thrift, and risk aversion. What he did, following on Bernanke's founding of this policy is pure evil. We've only begun to pay the price with massive inflation of housing costs and consumption goods, and the incipient collapse in financial asset prices as the Fed is forced to withdraw its support by high, and understated consumer inflation.

Suspect this will be well reversed by Monday's open. See you damara. From the beautiful Cote d'Azur I bid you, Bonne nuit and bonne chance!

They have massive hidden losses. Their long term bond portfolios are not marked to market. As their deposit bases shrink under QT, these losses will be gradually realized over time, feeding into their bottom lines. So the earnings you see now are not the earnings you get later.

Samantha LaDuc just pointed this one out to me. I don't know her but she seems really sharp.

The Fed isn't printing any more Doodahs. And next month, it starts withdrawing them from the banking system. This is actually going to get worse. Unless the Fed changes its mind. Can't rule that out.

Lunchtime.

Lunchtime.

Is that... Is that... Is that, "not a lot"?

Coinbase target -75. https://liquiditytrader.com/index.php/category/monetary/

"Does this 29-handle make my thighs look fat?" - Bitcoin

Similarly, 2.90 is the key on the 10 year. If that holds, uptrend still intact. If it doesn't, we're in an intermediate term counter trend reaction. That's thanks in part to massive paydowns in the T-bills, currently at $101 billion so far this month. looks like they're on a schedule of paying down $36 billion a week. With $951 billion in the Treasury's bank account, they can sustain this for 18 weeks before reaching their maintenance level target of $650 billion.

Speaking of Oh the Humanity, intermediate projection of 113 done. Due for a bounce off the tarmac. Liquidity Trader- Money Trends

THE FED AS A PRIMAL FINANCIAL CHAOS GOD When you think about it the FED is a financial chaos agent of the first order. By it distortion matrix it creates chaos in financial markets. It is the greatest pumper and dumper of financial (and real) assets of all time. Of course its great for speculators. All you have to do is front run the fed to make a fortune. Its easy to predict the future as a speculator with the FED as your very own chaos engine. I said bondholders were bag holders all last year. Because the 40% M2 print said so.

VID-20220506-WA0000.mp4

I am out taking a stroll on the Promenade Des Anglais and I stopped to check the market. My first reaction is, stupid is as stupid does. This too shall pass. I'll see you later.

I told you I wouldn't be surprised. But I am. Kinda. Pleasantly.

"Chairman Powell, your effort today hasn't yet generated a 4-digit move in the Dow. Do you understand that underperformance to constitute 'policy failure' for the plutocracy to whom you answer?"

He's so concerned about inflation, he addressed the American people and remained well behind the curve.

I'm now safely ensconced in my new permanent home in Nice, and it's time to get to work! We had yet another bear market rally overnight, on meta earnings. There is of course a difference between meta earnings and real earnings. I'll leave that discussion to the funny mentalists. Here's the main meal, the TA for today. I've drawn a new tentative downtrend channel on the hourly chart of the 24 hour ES S&P futures. That will give you an idea of where I think this is headed. If they don't clear 4250 straight away, then I expect we'll see 4175 again PDQ. Then we'll see! And for the big picture: Swing Trade Chart Pick Screens Flip Flop April 25, 2022 Ugly Whipsaw Revives Crash Potential in Stocks April 25, 2022 Tons of Cash, Not In Use, Signals this Huge Change in the Market April 23, 2022 Sell Gold in May and Go Away? April 19, 2022 Primary Dealers Still Long and Wrong, But A Gift Rally Looms! April 11, 2022 Why March Withholding Taxes Showing Red Hot Economy Is Bearish April 3, 2022 Fragile and Dangerous Semi Blind Spot March 28, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.

TCG, really enjoying your charts and commentary! I thought Doc's pics from his penthouse rental in Poland were amazing, let alone what he shows from France. It's not the south of France, but Baja California Sur is pretty OK today, even if it isn't "Nice". It's 82 degrees in Cabo today with nary a cloud in the sky. Can see all the way to Land's End from my terrace. Sunsets are pretty great too. Invitation still stands to you and any other Stoolie--if you find yourself down in Baja California Sur, give me a shout and we will break out the good stuff. See y'all tomorrow.

WHAT A RIDE The SPXL ETF (3x leveraged index ETF) went from $19 to $146 from 20 March 2020 to 4 Jan 2021. What a rise !!!!!!!!!!!!! A 40% M2 print will tend to do that to a stock index. Particularly a leveraged one. And then it all fell apart. Thats what tapering the big print and instituting some QT (mostly synthetic QT) will do to an overvalued leveraged stock index.

Wow

Thanks, gents! I will look forthwith at opening an IB account, despite me now also not liking... Thomsass Petersflysopen? Is he related to Mr. Manfrengensen?

Beat me to it. But I can't open a US account. Brokers are not allowed to open accounts for non-residents, regardless of citizenship.

Have you checked out Interactive Brokers? They charge 0.20 basis points for under a million ($2.00 minimum for the first $100,000) and the rates go down after a million: https://investors.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=1590&p=fx Alternately your can attach an FX market order to a trade when buying securities in other countries: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=47638

Heh Lee! How did you move cash from your house sale in Florida into euros? If we reach parity, I think I'd move a chunk of dollars into euros in anticipation of an eventual retirement apartment.

I am behind the 8 ball this morning, as I took it easy and did a little grocery shopping on this beautiful sunny Cote d'Azur day. I'm enjoying my last two days in beautiful Cannes, as I prepare to move to my permanent home which I've purchased in Nice, right on Place du Pin for those of you who know the town. I'm very excited. If you have never been to the South of France, come! You will be enchanted. But don't come in summer. Too crowded. Come in the shoulder season of spring and fall, or even the low season in winter. It's fantastic any time of year. And by all means, contact me, and I'll spend a little time showing you my favorite spots. You can use the contact form on Wall Street Examiner or Liquidity Trader to get in touch. Now, as for the market today, the setup on the ES 24 hour S&P futures hourly chart still looks pretty bullish for today, despite the pullback here in the premarket. That will remain true as long as the hold above 4265. If they break that, all bets are off. The crash could resume. But I'm favoring it holding at this point. The test for the bulls would be to clear 4310. If they can do that it would establish a little bit of an uptrend that should carry to 4350. If they can't, then the trading range that develops is more likely to be just a way station to further stops on the downhill train. Meanwhile, look at the 13 week T-bill. If it makes it to 1.00 by the time of next week's FOMC meeting it might force the Fed to go .75. That would shock the shit out of the market. And look at the 10 year. We're finally seeing that Treasury paydown effect rally that I've been expecting, but boy is is puny. If they don't get it under 2.75 this week, we'll see 3+ immediately after the Fed circus. Tons of Cash, Not In Use, Signals this Huge Change in the Market I'm currently updating the gold report. Oh the humanity. Meanwhile, have a look, if you can bear to not avert your eyes. And for the big picture: Swing Trade Chart Pick Screens Flip Flop April 25, 2022 Ugly Whipsaw Revives Crash Potential in Stocks April 25, 2022 Tons of Cash, Not In Use, Signals this Huge Change in the Market April 23, 2022 Sell Gold in May and Go Away? April 19, 2022 Primary Dealers Still Long and Wrong, But A Gift Rally Looms! April 11, 2022 Why March Withholding Taxes Showing Red Hot Economy Is Bearish April 3, 2022 Fragile and Dangerous Semi Blind Spot March 28, 2022 If you're serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me! If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.

I'm calling it a day here gentlemen... I'm going to leave you with this thought. I normally don't like to jump too many steps ahead. So, I'm going to mention this briefly and move along... These patterns from the top(and NFLX, PYPL, AMD, NVDA et al...are helping form this opinion), I've seen these patterns many many times and I'm going to be posting charts to point out some of the highlights of each one so you can easily recognize them in other issue as this decline begins to unfold. Each form of the pattern has its own little signature moves. I'm actually working on the set of charts now...in my free time. Why mention this? I'm also seeing something else unfold at the same time. Right to the brass tacks. I don't know of any man in the world who has studied the patterns of all bubbles from the 1600's to the present as much as I have. I'm sure there are a few out there hiding in a back office somewhere...but not many. I mention this...because "in the fashion of acceleration" that were witnessing in these declines? In the names mentioned, the decline (in)"time" and "price"(destruction) is coming at a rate that would normally signal...that what we're seeing is only the first salvo. Meaning...expect a healthy snapback and what could possibly be a worst secondary leg thereafter. Worse in time...and...price. That. Is how I'm playing this decline. With that said... See you tomorrow. Best, TCG

Microsquish in line in the afterlife

This was a great tweet today and echos the concerns from this room.

He never heard of Rule Number One. These guys don't get paid to say sell. In fact, they get penalized if they say sell. But they also get penalized when the value of their assets under management collapses. I say fuckem. Fuckemall.