If the 10 year clears 4.35 it will head for 4.55-.60 pdq. If not, then it's a trade on the long side. Not for long, but potentially a play. Right now, this chart looks bullish. Which is bearish. Get it? š
Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc.
In 1960 my father paid me $10 to read a book "W?hy Gold" that spoke to the impending collapse due to over spending and deficits. I bought the premise and have expected the collapse ever since.
As soon as I swear off the premise, the collapse will happen. I know its true, just unbelievable the extent to which it can be violated.
A LITTLE PROBLEM WITH NUMBERS
The US budget defecit is 6% of GDP.
To stop the government debt spiralling futher in real terms requires inflation around this level.
I call it the "budget balancing level of inflation".
Every time it looks as though the rally is running out of gas, somebody gives it a fill-up. It's as if Friday's selloff didn't happen.
Meanwhile, did you notice that the Fed's RRP slush fund dropped by $100 billion to a new low of $418 billion over the last 3 days of last week. Don't worry, it won't run out of cash any time soon. This is money that came out to pay March 15 corporate income tax. Now the Treasury will use it to start paying down T-bills. It will flow back into money market funds, and there won't be any T-bill supply to absorb it for the next 2 months. So right back into the RRP slush fund it will go. More on that here, with an update to come this week. Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc.
As for the hourly ES, 24 hour S&P futures, the downtrend has been obliterated and they've started a new 5 day cycle up phase. Watch for a pullback to 5150. If that holds, then we have a new uptrend channel to work with. If no pullback, then the current meltup will run right back to the high of 5190. The next 3-5 day cycle high is due Wednesday-Friday. Buckle up. A Top is In, But Which One Is It
For moron the markets, see:
Markets Create Money, Money Talks, Markets Listen Etc. March 12, 2024
Market Flies Blind in Thin Air March 11, 2024
Swing Trade Screen Picks ā What to Do With Profitable Week Behind March 8, 2024
Gold Sets Up for Major Breakout March 6, 2024
The Magic of Rising Stock Prices Driving Liquidity, Driving Prices March 4, 2024
Tax Collections Took Off in a Stunning Reversal in February March 3, 2024
We Donāt Need No Stinkinā Fed ā We Make Money from Nothing February 26, 2024
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A Top is In, But Which One Is It
LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER MARCH 17, 2024
This looks like a 6-month cycle down phase, but ideally it should be xxxx xxxx. With cycles in gear to the xxxxxxxx, it could be xxxxx, but it will end within xxxxx and should xxxxx just as xxxxx. Then weāll see. Non subscribers click here to access.
Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.
It could be xxxxxx xxxxxxx, but building xxxxxx xxxxxx takes time. In the meantime, the longer term indicators arenāt xxxx xxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxxx. Non subscribers click here to access.
Not a subscriber? Get price and time targets, and weekly swing trade chart picks, risk free for 90 days!
Swing Trade Screen Picks ā Adding Stops to Take Profits
LEE ADLER 2 - TECHNICAL TRADER MARCH 17, 2024
List performance was surprisingly stable from the week before given that the previous week was already at a record level for this exercise. The average gain was 13.8% on an average holding period of 29 calendar days. That compares with an average gain of 13.1% on an average holding period of 21 calendar days in the previous week. This includes picks closed out over the course of the week and those still open. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Technical Trader subscribers click here to download the complete report.
This weekās swing trade screens generated 23 charts which met all buy side criteria for visual review, and 31 which met all sell criteria for the week ended Friday. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Iāve developed an additional algo to take the place of visual review for weeding out chart patterns that are not attractive low risk entries here. The net result after that overlay left just 6 charts on the buy side and 13 on the sell side. Non-subscribers click here for access.
These are very small numbers so I wonāt draw any broad market conclusions from that. However, the fact that the numbers are small confirms what we already sensed. This advance is elderly, and is therefore prone to loss of balance and falls. Non-subscribers click here for access.
We came into the week with 13 open picks, including 10 longs and 3 shorts. Two picks were stopped out and I have no new additions this week. Weāll thus go into the next week with 11 open picks, including 3 shorts and 8 longs. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Performance was adversely affected this week by one stock that crashed after having been one of the best performers. This is part of the game, and a drawback of only doing this exercise once a week as opposed to daily. On the other hand, a weekly period has the advantage of avoiding overtrading. Thereās no perfect time frame, but doing it weekly allows the trader time to live life rather than staying glued to a trading screen every day. Non-subscribers click here for access.
The culprit in this case was xxx which surprised traders on a revenue āmissā and a weak forecast. It had been uptrending beautifully. Then there were technical warning signs earlier in the week, but unless I go to a daily schedule, which is not on my horizon, then we have to roll with it when sheet happens. Thatās the reason why I like to have enough picks to spread risk, so that if one goes really bad, itās not a killer. And this wasnāt, given that the list still had a record average gain. Voila! The more the merrier. Non-subscribers click here for access.
By the way, a stop would not have helped since the price opened on a huge gap down, well below any reasonable stop level I may have guessed at. Iāve now indicated a stop just below major trend support. If the uptrend holds, Iāll let this ride, week to week. If not, bye-bye. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Iāve also indicated stops on all but one of the other picks for the purpose of taking profits. Virtually all of these picks are ready to āage out.ā Non-subscribers click here for access.
I reviewed the charts produced by the screens after the application of the new test for suitable setups. I did not like the patterns on either the buy side or the sell side. Even after applying the new filter, there was still nothing that I would consider a low risk, high reward entry setup. Non-subscribers click here for access.
On the sell side, most were in uptrends, and while they may have peaked, they will be bouncy on the way down as they hit trend support. Again, not ideal entries. Iāll look for sell signals on the rebounds to lower highs for better shorts. Non-subscribers click here for access.
Table of picks and performance in the subscriber report. Non-subscribers click here for access.
The only thing that doesn't suit me is Timming because mid-March and especially April is a good time for rallies as that's when there are higher tax receipts and less supply of bonds hence classically the second half of March and April are good. So maybe sideways? We shall see. It has already been easy.