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  2. BTC is sitting on the toilet getting ready to take a dump.
  3. The Fed stress tests assumed -55% in stocks 40% in CRE, and the Fed says that the banks would still have adequate capital. First of all, it means that it thinks it can let that happen. Second of all, it's wrong. The dominoes will start falling well before those parameters are hit.
  4. They don‘t talk much about it, if at all, but quite sure one of the targets of the CB‘s is the total destruction of Buttcoin. if liqui stays tight, what it most likely will, Buttcoin won‘t stop falling and some/all of these Buttcoin ETF‘s will implode. But there will be no bail out, cause they are not part of the „Club“. See there is no Bittcoin ETF from Deutsche Bank 😉
  5. Right. New trading „systems“ always reflect the market regime of roughly the past decade. No wonder Antonacci came up with „Dual Momentum“ in 2014 and not say in 1997. We had two large bears in 2000-03 and 2007-09 AND we had large swings in the USD, thst‘s why Dual Momentum worked. It underperforms since 2009… Latest stuff is the following: You are not fully invested in stocks, but you add no matter what at a drawdown of 20%, you then add at 40% and gawd beware at minus 60%. This reflects the regime since 2009. This system will underperform from now on, betcha.
  6. Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity
  7. I'm really surprised that that rally didn't stick at all. I thought a little pullback, then more upside. WRONG. Maybe Tamara?
  8. Oh is this going to end badly. Chasing the last decade's winning horse.
  9. At least that's what their site shows. But can you overcome the trading fees and management expenses by holding treasuries?
  10. Is this based on the theory/reality that most gains in the indexes happen in the overnight futures and not when the stock exchanges are actually open?
  11. Two new very strange new ETFs: https://sec.report/Document/0001580642-22-002817/ The idea appears to be to buy and hold treasuries and swap into ETFs in large or small caps at the end of each day to hold overnight and swap back out in the A.M. Tickers are NSPY and NIWM. Brains are run by AlphaTrAI. https://www.nightsharesetfs.com So far AI hasn't done great at running ETFs but we'll see.
  12. That‘s why many stocks fizzled out in Aug 2020, maybe went a bit higher, but the easy money was in most cases made by Aug 2020. Only shows once again that all that counts is liqui.
  13. I'm a little bummed that the market is selling off here. Last short on my chart pick list got stopped out yesterday. Bummer. Train may be leaving the station without us. I may need to interrupt this program for a special bulletin, but first gotta write a report.
  14. Or watching the US become a fascist theocracy. Now that the Supreme Court has legalized school prayer, I hope that the Satanists demand equal time. H/t to Seth Abramson for that idea.
  15. Minimal so far. But keep in mind that this is a continuum. The reduction in QE that began 2 years ago was actually the beginning of QT. Any reduction in printing is tightening. So they've just been gradually ratcheting up the pressure every few months. It's a frog slowly boiling on the street in the sun. First it just gets sleepy. Then it's dead. Kind of like human life, come to think of it.
  16. The market benefitted from exceptionally light supply in June.
  17. If I would be a „market maker“ I‘d punish the „I gonna buy Amazon at the day of the split hand over fist!“-crowd. Quite sure it will happen anyway. 😂
  18. have they actually done any "real" QT. Is their balance sheet reducing?
  19. You mean by August the wheels will fall off and therefore the FED will be forced to reverse course? Imagine „the market“ cracks the BoJ, mon dieu! If those JGB‘s blow up… ou la la!
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